With Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci back in the fold, the Bruins might be fixated on making the most of this 2022-23 campaign and squeezing whatever contention capital remains with this veteran core.
And yet, as much as most of the narratives regarding the state of this Original Six franchise revolve around what could be the last kick at the can with Bergeron, Krejci and others, the B’s top brass needs to keep the big picture in mind, even if the coming years offer a murkier future.
In order to try to facilitate a smoother transition from the post-Bergeron era, the Bruins will also need to remain cognizant of the future — namely in the form of new contracts for David Pastrnak and Jeremy Swayman.
Pastrnak remains the top priority and the most consequential domino that has yet to fall in what has been a busy offseason for the Bruins, with the established sniper’s pending UFA status putting Boston on the clock to lock him in before games officially begin in October.
Swayman, who will become a restricted free agent once his entry-level deal expires next summer, doesn’t have nearly as much leverage — nor do the Bruins have to race to sign him in short order.
And yet, even though Pastrnak’s ongoing contract saga offers more intrigue and holds greater stakes for the immediate future of this roster, Swayman’s pending payday stands as a fascinating hurdle for the B’s to clear — given Swayman’s ceiling, the variance in terms of comparison deals and the risk that can present itself when it comes to doling out money at such a volatile position.
Even though we tempered expectations a bit for Swayman after he stormed onto the scene and dominated during a 10-game stretch in 2020-21 (7-3-0, .945 save percentage, two shutouts), the Alaska native successfully navigated his first full season up in the NHL ranks this past year — going 23-14-3 with a .914 save percentage and three shutouts.
Even with the expected developmental bumps in the road that all rookie netminders hit during their first full year at hockey’s highest level, Swayman routinely looked the part as a future No. 1 NHL netminder, with his poise, puck tracking and laidback demeanor helping him serve as the last line of defense for a stingy B’s team.
And at 23 years old, there is still plenty of room for Swayman to grow as he tries to carry the baton started by Tim Thomas and continued by Tuukka Rask as a foundational cornerstone between the pipes for Boston.
Given the strides that Swayman has made between the University of Maine, Providence and now up with Boston, it wouldn’t come as much of a surprise that the young goalie once again elevates his game in 2022-23.
Even with both Charlie McAvoy and Matt Grzelcyk out of commission to open the new campaign, Jim Montgomery and the B’s do plan to roll out the same layered zone defense implemented by both Claude Julien and Bruce Cassidy — a structure that has kept Boston as a top-five defensive club for years now.
That defensive system, coupled with Swayman’s natural progression with another year of NHL reps under his belt, could open the door for Boston to try and lock Swayman into a long-term deal — not only keeping its potential No. 1 goalie in place for the future as part of the next wave with players like McAvoy/Pastrnak, but also securing him under a fair-market payout.
And yet, while some B’s fans would champion a scenario in which Boston signs Swayman to a five or six-year extension this season at around $4-5 million per year — there’s also a hefty amount of risk involved, not to mention the fiscal question marks as it pertains to next season.
Sure, paying that much per year to Swayman COULD end up looking like a steal in the coming seasons, especially if he turns into a top-10 goalie as soon as this year. But the Bruins could also be in for a rude awakening next season — even if they get Pastrnak and Swayman to sign for, say, a combined $14-15 million.
Because even though the Bruins are set to shed a ton of contracts next summer, they don’t have nearly as much financial flexibility as one might hope — especially if this team is looking to spend big on free agents in order to hasten that looming retool/rebuild.
Let’s say Boston does sign Pastrnak to a long-term deal for $9.5 million annually (a huge coup for the B’s) and Swayman inks a five-year deal at $4.5 million. Based on Boston’s current financial situation (per CapFriendly), the B’s are set to enter next summer with $25.4 million in cap room.
But with both Pastrnak and Swayman’s deals added in — along with the $4.5 million in signing bonuses for Bergeron/Krejci that will almost certainly carry over in 2023-24 — you’re suddenly looking at just $6.9 million in cap room.
So, even with a pretty good young core of McAvoy-Swayman-Pastrnak all locked up, the Bruins still don’t have a whole lot to spend — with just five forwards signed and no guarantee that both Bergeron/Krejci are part of the picture.
Of course, the Bruins could move other contracts off the books in order to manufacture more cap space — but settling for more of a bridge deal with Swayman at a lower annual cap hit ($3-3.5 million) stands as another avenue that Don Sweeney and Co. could take.
That might ruffle the feathers of some, but it also could be a proactive move for Boston, given the challenges that come with projecting long-term production from goaltenders.
For every Tuukka Rask or Carey Price, there are plenty of other young goalies who flash early — but then gradually come back down to Earth as more and more teams get the book on them.
After posting a .926 save percentage up in the Toronto bubble in 2020, Carter Hart finally looked like the sought-after franchise goalie that the Flyers have been searching for. Fair to say, Philly is probably glad they ultimately opted to sign him to a three-year, $11.9 million contract in August 2021 — considering that Hart has now posted save percentages of .877 and .905, respectively, in back-to-back seasons on some bad Flyers teams.
Of course, that’s not to say that Swayman will follow a similar trajectory as Hart. But for an NHL team, it’s often wise to use caution when it comes to paying goalies long-term — not until they put forth some established production over a few years.
Such is the strategy that the Stars seem to have embraced with Jake Oettinger — who was handed a three-year, $12 million contract just months after the former BU product posted a .954 save percentage in a seven-game playoff series with Calgary (including a 64-save masterclass in an eventual OT loss in Game 7).
And that strategy would also make plenty of sense for the Bruins, with the B’s opting to bridge the gap with Swayman for another two or three years, potentially retain his RFA rights during that stretch (depending on the length of contract) and give him a significant pay raise in 2026/2027 when more money should be available, Linus Ullmark’s deal is expired and Swayman is, hopefully by that stage, a surefire franchise goalie.