Not long ago, it seemed that Nathan Eovaldi was the free agent starting pitcher whom the Red Sox should attempt to re-sign for 2023, and perhaps beyond.
Eovaldi was the team's No. 1 starter in 2021, and through the first half, retained that title. But that was before a series of injuries limited both his effectiveness and his availability. Since late June, Eovaldi has had two separate stints on the IL -- one for a back/hip issue, the other for shoulder inflammation.
Eovaldi is currently throwing some, but is waiting to be cleared for a bullpen, but frankly, with just over four weeks remaining in the season, there's no guarantee that he'll pitch for the Red Sox again this season.
This marks the fourth time in five seasons in Boston that Eovaldi has spent time on the IL, and that doesn't count the games lost to injury before being traded to the Sox. Eovaldi is perhaps the best-conditioned player on the Boston roster, and his toughness is not questioned. (That got settled during the 2018 World Series).
But Eovaldi will turn 33 next February and he must be considered a risky investment. At this point, with a 5-3 record with a 4.15 ERA, even giving Eovaldi a qualifying offer, which would tie him to the club for 2023, would be a significant gamble.
If the Red Sox are to retain one of their unsigned starters for next year, it would make far more sense to do so with Michael Wacha.
Wacha was left with a no-decision after six high-quality innings in the Red Sox' 4-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays. During this six innings, he allowed seven hits -- at least three of them soft singles -- and didn't walk a batter while striking out seven. His final strikeout of the game was the 1,000th of his career.
"This guy,'' marveled Alex Cora, "every five days, it's a solid start.''
Cora isn't being hyperbolic. Monday represented Wacha's 18th start of the season. Only once in those 18 starts has he allowed more than four runs, and only four times has he allowed more than two earned runs. In his 18 starts, the Red Sox are 13-5. One of those losses came when he allowed one earned run, and another came when he didn't allow a single earned run.
With better run support -- and a better performance from the bullpen -- Wacha could easily have another three or four wins to his credit.
It may seem an overpay to pay Wacha somewhere in the neighborhood of $19 million -- the estimated qualifying offer figure -- for 2023. But a one-year commitment couldn't represent much of a risk to the Sox. The team clearly needs additional experienced starters β since right now, Chris Sale and Nick Pivetta are the only starters under control next season.
If the Sox don't give a QO to Wacha, they're going to have pay someone an eight-figure salary on the free agent market. And free agency being what it is, that will either go to a pitcher with some injury risk unable to command a multi-year deal, or to someone who, because of the demand, can expect to get a three- or four-year deal.
It may be that Wacha, at 31, will be looking for some security, having enjoyed his best season since 2018. But it would be pretty tough for him to pass up $19 million or so in a qualifying offer. If he repeats his performance from this season next year, then Wacha can go back on the market after 2023 and get himself a longer deal at truly big bucks.
Wacha himself is not without some risk from the Red Sox' point of view. He missed six weeks because of shoulder weakness from the end of June until the middle of August. But the shoulder remains structurally sound and he's been terrific in his five starts since returning from the IL, going 4-0 with a no-decision in five outings with a 1.77 ERA.
There's little downside to giving Wacha the QO -- if he declines, the Red Sox get themselves a compensatory draft pick after the fourth round; if he accepts, they have themselves a veteran No. 2 starter in an otherwise uncertain rotation.
Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom did not have a very good winter. While Trevor Story was a solid signing, the trade for Jackie Bradley Jr. proved disastrous, and the bullpen acquisitions proved to be inadequate. Lefty James Paxton, whose signing was something of a crapshoot with an eye toward 2023-24, did not contribute a single inning.
Wacha was an unqualified success at $7 million. Letting him get away would be foolhardy.