By this time next week, we'll be debating or celebrating the Patriots' performance in the season opener against the Dolphins.
Let's start game week discussing five lingering questions we have as New England readies to travel down to South Florida in advance of Sunday's game:
1. How will the Patriots' offensive mechanisms work now that the regular season is here?
2. What will be the Patriots' offensive identity to start the season?
3. Which defensive player is the team most counting on in their plans?
4. Where is the team most likely to add before the trade deadline?
5. What's the position group that is most worrisome?
And with that, we are off:
1. How will the Patriots' offensive mechanisms work now that the regular season is here?
I'm not going to pretend that I have some inside information in this area, because I don't. This is one of the most closely held secrets around One Patriot Place and it's the one area other NFL teams will be watching the most. But piecing some things together, this is how I think it will work:
- The gameplan: This one is not that hard because the Patriots have used the same collaborative process for years. Everyone on the offensive staff gets a different part of the gameplan, be it drive-starters, short yardage, goal line, red zone, third downs, etc. It would stand to reason that Matt Patricia, Billy Yates and RBs coach Vinne Sunseri will deal with the running game and the protections, along with an assist from TEs coach Nick Caley. Bill Belichick and Joe Judge, along with help from Mac Jones and Brian Hoyer, will handle the passing game concepts in the gameplan. The other offensive coaches will fill the gaps with other sections targeting the Dolphins. From there, Patricia, Judge and Belichick will cull the playsheet which, in Belichick's mind, should be paint by numbers based on situation. It's the same way it has worked with the defense and Steve Belichick — to mixed results — since Brian Flores left. Belichick now has synergy, in his mind, in how the offense and defense operate. Previously, the offense was almost exclusively the domain of Josh McDaniels. Belichick had input, but not a ton of control. He has that now.
- Gameday: To start, I think it's going to look a lot like we saw in the preseason. Patricia is going to do double-duty as playcaller and offensive line coach. Belichick will have a lot of influence, and could take over at any point. Belichick, Patricia and Judge will meet for about 5 minutes after each series to go over adjustments, and then disperse them to the troops. Expect Belichick to also check in with Jones and the line, if needed. One area where the Patriots leave themselves short doing it this way: change of possession if the defense turns it over. Patricia takes several minutes just to get to the linemen. If he doesn't have time to go over to the adjustments, then what was long a strength of the Patriots — dealing with sudden change of possession — could go to a big weakness.
2. What will be the Patriots' offensive identity to start the season?
I do not think they are going to junk the zone blocking scheme quite yet, because I think they really like the pass concepts off it — that's the biggest reason for their tweak in offensive system (it's not a new offense). Put money on this right now: Jonnu Smith will catch a big-yardage naked bootleg very early in the game. They hid it from the Raiders and in the games — Smith has been largely quiet this preseason — and I think they think he's going to be a big weapon for them to start. I think they're outkicking their coverage there, but we'll see.
The Patriots are hoping to be a very efficient short passing game team with a lot of these Shanhan elements, and then they are hoping that will lead later to bigger plays with the defense biting on the screens and boots.
3. Which defensive player is the team most counting on in their plans?
Christian Barmore, no question. Matthew Judon is going to be a beast, again, to start this season. Whether he finishes stronger, we'll have to see. But the team is banking on Barmore to not only become a three-down player, but to take up blockers and free up other players in one-on-one situations, including Judon. Expect them to use Barmore in tandem with Judon where it forces the opponent to choose who to double, with a linebacker scraping and blitzing from the second level as part of that.
They are counting on Barmore to wreak havoc and wreck games, and I wouldn't bet against him doing that. He looked terrific all summer. Would be nice if he had more help, but...
4. Where is the team most likely to add before the trade deadline?
Cornerback, no question. You and I should spend every week looking to see which cornerbacks are on struggling teams either in the final year of their deal, or with one more year left and their team will look to cut bait (think an Aqib Talib situation). Unfortunately for the Patriots, the 2023 FA cornerbacks are ... not good (from OverTheCap.com):
2024 is looking a little better.
The Patriots will be much better off if they can acquire a No.1-type CB and slot everyone down — and that's before injuries hit. They are gambling a lot that Jalen Mills, Jonathan Jones and Myles Bryant can hold up. The pass rush better be fantastic.
5. What's the position group that is most worrisome?
The offensive line.
When you combine a bunch of position shifts, change what you're doing and how you're communicating, with very green coaches and a few key players who have been malcontents (Trent Brown, Isaiah Wynn) from time to time, you're asking for trouble. The quickest way for this season to go south is for the offensive line to be a combustible mess, without Josh McDaniels to scheme around it, or a veteran and proven offensive line coach to get it together. If the Patriots can't block the basic plays to start the season, and/or if Jones has little faith in what's going on in front of him, it's almost impossible to have offensive success.
No question, Belichick has made a huge bet here on Patricia with all the changes, and a first-round rookie inserted and going from UT-Chattanooga to the frying pan with these first four games against defenses that are good, and bring a lot of pressure.
We'll know pretty quickly whether Belichick was genius with all of this ... or not.