In the interest of fairness — we'll start our true analysis on this season with our preseason prediction this week — let's go through an exercise that we've done from time to time when things looked bleak for the Patriots:
What we will have gotten wrong if/when the Patriots go on to have a successful season.
First trotted it out in 2018 after getting waxed by the Titans ... and the Patriots did go on and win the Super Bowl (not exactly how I laid it out, but...).
Pretty sure we did it in 2019 as well (can't find it in the system), but that didn't work out so well.
So let's put aside the way the offense looked for the entirety of camp. Let's look past some of the personnel issues. Let's concede, for a moment, that Bill Belichick knew exactly what he was doing when he went with Matt Patricia and Joe Judge as his offensive braintrust.
We're skipping ahead to a time when the Patriots have gone 11-6 and are favorites to win a playoff game — both would be steps forward from a season ago, and pleasing to owner Robert Kraft.
From where the Patriots are now, how will they get there? Five key factors.
1. The start of the season is about survival.
No, I'm not talking about the first four games meaning nothing in the grand scheme of things. That discussion was taken out of context (thanks, Adam Jones) last year and while there are certainly some merits to it, especially with a 17-game season now, I'm focusing on the context with this Patriots team.
As long as the Patriots don't start 0-4, which is possible, everything is still in front of them. Yes, the Patriots are dealing with new things on the offensive side of the ball, but their first four opponents are as well: Dolphins — new coach (Mike McDaniels) and offensive system; Steelers — two new quarterbacks; Ravens — new defensive coordinator (Mike MacDonald); Packers — New receivers, OC and special teams coordinator.
The Patriots should be able to scrape at least one win out of the first four, with the Steelers being the most logical even if it's on the road. The Patriots have done well against Lamar Jackson and OC Greg Roman, so the home opener should be close.
The most important thing is that they make weekly progress in terms of execution and implementing their offense, and figuring out how the personnel is going to work on defense. If the Patriots are 1-3 but are doing those things then they are OK, because ...
2. Feast off a weak middle of the schedule.
It's hard to understate how bad the teams are the Patriots have from Weeks 5-12. The Lions are the Lions. The Browns don't have Deshaun Watson. The Bears are terrible. The Jets (twice) are still the Jets until proven otherwise. The Colts are teetering and fairly close to the Patriots (game is at Gillette). And the Vikings have a new coach and are very much in transition.
We could very well be looking at the exact same situation as last season — 1-3 start, 8-1 against a weak middle — and we still don't know much about the team (warned you about that last year).
Here's where they can be different: Execute a lot better. Stop the run when you need to (didn't vs. Titans and others). Mac Jones needs to hit all the plays he should hit (didn't vs. Titans). Play good all-round football. Then a 36-13 victory means something substantial, instead of being an illusion about where the team really is as was the case last season.
The Patriots team is starting behind where they were last year, there's no doubt about that. But if they can build their execution brick by brick, then even if this year and last year look exactly the same, I can be writing a different column heading into the first Bills game on Dec. 1. One that reads, the Patriots are ready and the scoreboard hasn't been lying to you.
So the Patriots could/should be 8-4 at this point heading into the final five games, and actually playing well.
3. Need three more wins in final six games.
Let's face it, it would take a miracle or natural disaster (game played in a hurricane again) or injury to level the playing field against the much more talented Bills. They might miss Brian Daboll a little bit which will help, but let's, for now, cede a Bills sweep this season.
Patriots need to be road warriors in their two weeks out west — at Arizona and at Las Vegas. Patriots will likely be underdogs in both those games, but they can take the Cardinals (they always have injury and performance issues at the end of seasons) and who knows where Josh McDaniels and the Raiders will be near the end of their first year in a brutal division. Patriots need to and can win both of those games.
That means they need to figure out a way to beat the Bengals or Dolphins at home, or hopefully the Bills have everything locked up and don't care about the finale (Josh Allen played the entire game vs. Jets to finish last season).
This season could likely come down to the Dolphins game, which is a fitting almost divisional Super Bowl. It would be the stamp of approval or indictment on where they are in a division they once owned. If Belichick is still Belichick and his vision for the team has not fallen off, the Patriots win that game.
4. Individual paths back to the playoffs.
How do the Patriots win all those games from where they are now?
- It's tough for Belichick and Patricia to do everything they need to do during camp for the offense to be where it needs to be. But out of camp, Belichick has more time to dive into the gameplan and get things settled and teed up for Patricia. Patricia is also better able to balance his offensive line and OC responsibilities. The line should make more progress getting on the same page in the regular season due to these factors.
- With more time with Belichick, Jones settles down and feels much better about where the offense is going because Belichick will meet and listen to him. The coach will give the player ownership, and that leads to him buying in more. That trickles down to the rest of the offense.
- With Patricia improving the line, the running game starts to become a big factor again, which is a must for Jones and also that they don't have a ton of explosiveness in the pass game. The more the defense has to stop the rush, the more Devante Parker, Hunter Henry and Jakobi Meyers will get singled up. Also, look for Jonnu Smith to get some big gains on naked bootlegs.
- Christian Barmore becomes a three-down game wrecker on defense. With Matthew Judon doing the same on the outside, Patriots become a handful. They also are able to design some nice pressures that force the other team to single block Judon and Barmore, leading to more trouble. That allows the corners to have to cover for less time.
- Belichick swings a big trade for a corner with No. 1 traits by the trade deadline. One of the big glaring weaknesses on the team is patched up, leading to more confidence into the big final stretch run for this team.
- Jones is riding high by the end, and throws the team to a playoff victory.
This isn't completely fantasy land. It could happen. Not saying it will or won't, but if Belichick still has his fastball, this is how it will happen.
Don't panic over the start. The middle and how they are truly playing during that stretch will be the biggest factor.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. Jonnu Smith's restructure had nothing to do with him or how Belichick feels about this team. If the Patriots believed in Smith, they would have extended his deal to smooth out the possible cap hits. They didn't do that. And we all knew, going back to the offseason, that the Patriots would have to do something major to someone's contract just to make ends meet by the end of the season. With only $4.2 million in cap space, there is still more work to do there. Don't overlook the fact that Davon Godchaux (head-scratching extension) and Smith are both represented by Drew Rosenhaus.
2. Smith now has the highest cap number on the team in 2023 ($17.4 million) and 2024 ($18.4 million). To get out from under that, they will need to trade him. Unless he has a huge rebound year, they are going to be in the situation as they were with Isaiah Wynn — no one wants that contract for an average player. Henry and Smith are still tied for 6th-highest AAV for tight ends.
"Jonnu's [Smith] had a really good offseason," Belichick said. "Starting in the spring, he's in real good condition, fundamentals, and techniques are good. He's a hard-working kid. He's out there every day, smart player. So he's off to a real good start, and we'll see how things go in the regular season. But he's put himself in position to, I think, go out and play well."
3. Jimmy Garoppolo being back with the 49ers was all about the Seahawks. The 49ers didn't want Garoppolo to walk to a rival and help them. And Garoppolo looked at the Seahawks and decided that rebuild was likely to do his career more harm than good.
4. Patriots, who will depart Tuesday for South Florida, have yet to release their practice times for the week. If they're going down there to get acclimated to the weather, wouldn't it make the most sense to practice at 1 p.m.? That 1 p.m. game starts are something else down there.
5. Good to see Jason McCourty (black hat), Devin McCourty (white hat) and Deatrich Wise (blue shirt) out supporting Rutgers in its 22-21 win over Boston College on Saturday. #UpstreamRedTeam
