Among the many decisions the Red Sox will need to make over the winter is how to best use pitchers Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck.
The two are often linked together, for obvious reasons -- both young, both talented, both righthanded. And versatile. Which can be both good and bad.
The 2022 season began with Houck in the starting rotation and Whitlock in the bullpen. Houck didn't last long in the rotation, making just four starts before he was shifted to the bullpen. Then, with Houck ineligible to pitch in Toronto because he wasn't vaccinated against COVID, Whitlock went the other way -- from a relief role to one as a starter -- to fill Houck's spot.
It could be argued that's when the Red Sox season went off the rails. Whitlock struggled in adapting to the starter's role, while the bullpen teetered in his absence. Neither pitcher made a start after June 7.
As a starter, Whitlock was 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in nine starts. As a reliever, he's made 19 appearances, going 2-1 with six saves and an ERA of 2.72.
Houck, meanwhile, was 1-2 with a 4.32 ERA in four starts. Out of the bullpen, he was 4-2 with a 2.70 ERA in 28 appearances and eight saves.
Both have pitched better in relief than as starters, but that could well be a function of opportunity and neither has had much experience developing as a starter.
So where do the Sox go from here with the two? A lot will depend on what other moves are made in the offseason. For now, the Sox can count on just three starting pitchers for 2023 -- Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta and Brayan Bello. And given Sale's history over the last three seasons -- he's pitched a total of just 48.1 innings because of various injuries -- he can hardly be counted on for next season.
At a minimum, then, the Red Sox will need to add two starters over the winter. If they determine that Houck and Whitlock should both start, they'll have solved their rotation issues somewhat but will have stripped their bullpen thin. And if they keep both in relief -- Whitlock is there now and Houck was until his final appearance on Aug. 8, when lower back issues shut him down for the season, with back surgery set for Tuesday -- they'll have two sizeable holes in their rotation.
It needn't be an all-or-nothing proposition for the duo. There's nothing stopping the Red Sox from having one of the two in the rotation in 2023 and the other in the bullpen.
Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said this weekend said he had some thoughts on how to best optimize the pair, but preferred to keep his thoughts to himself until he could discuss the matter with others in the organization, including, presumably, manager Alex Cora and pitching coach Dave Bush. No doubt, the Sox will want to also get past Tuesday's surgery to ensure that there are no unforeseen developments that complicate the decision-making.
"One of the things we're going to talk about in the offseason is their roles,'' said Cora. "We know they can do both. We know that. Obviously, that's a bigger conversation with where we're going to go and what we're going to try to do in the offseason. But they can impact the game -- either in the first five innings or the last four innings. They're that good. Tanner has done it as a starter, and as a reliever. He made some strides. He learned a lot about himself. I think overall, he wasn't perfect in a sense. I don't think we got the best (in terms of volume); as far as innings, it was a lot less than we expected coming into the season.
"But the ones he pitches, they were all important. There weren't too many low-leverage innings, just like last year. And he was solid.''
Whitlock, too, was managed carefully. The Sox have used him as a multi-inning weapon in relief, and he's been mostly effective in that role until two poor outings this past week. But Whitlock underwent Tommy John surgery, missed the 2020 season and pitched just 71.3 innings in 2021. Not wanting to jump his innings too dramatically this year, the Sox have given him plenty of time to recover. As a general rule, for every inning he's pitched, he's gotten a day to bounce back.
That was a logical approach for this, his second season in the big leagues. But if Whitlock is going to be used in the bullpen again in 2023, the training wheels will have to come off and he'll need to carry a heavier workload.
It might be easy to say that because starting pitching is so expensive to acquire -- either in dollars or player cost -- that the Sox should stick both in the rotation, cover 40 percent of their starter spots, and worry about the bullpen later. But that's too simplistic. It's possible that both are better suited for relief -- the numbers, even in a relatively small sample size, suggest that to be the case. It may be that, from the perspective of their bodies or in recognition of how their stuff best plays, both are better suited to contribute out of the bullpen. There are worse things to have than two hard-throwing righthanders in their mid-20s, under control for several seasons, as relief anchors.
And even there, the Sox will need to be more specific: if they pitch in relief, do they continue in multi-inning stints? Or are they selected to serve as more traditional, one-inning closers?
But again, because of the difficulty of finding and/or developing starting pitching, it's probably best that the Sox exhaust every possibility of them as starters before moving on from the experiment permanently.
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During the off-season, two middle infielders signed the deals for exactly the amount of money for the same term -- Javier Baez (Detroit Tigers) and Trevor Story (Red Sox). Each signed a six-year, $140 million contract. (A third, Marcus Semien of the Texas Rangers, signed a slightly larger deal for seven years and $175 million. Baez and Story have an average annual value of $23.3 million while Semien's AAV is $25 million.
All three were natural shortstops, but Semien and Story were signed as second basemen. (Semien, who had played short for the Oakland A's for six seasons, had actually made the transition to second when he signed a one-year deal for 2021 with Toronto). Similarly, Story, though a shortstop in his time with Colorado, came here with the understanding that he would play second -- at least for this season.
The trio were part of a star-studded middle infielder free agent class in which only one (Corey Seager, also Texas) signed for truly huge dollars (10 years, $325 million). The other, Carlos Correa, having passed up a reported offer of $275 million from Detroit, instead took a shorter deal with Minnesota (three years $105.3 million with opt-outs after this season, and should he stay put this winter, after 2023, too).
How have the three who signed the deals fared?
For a variety of reasons, none has had a truly great first season with their new clubs, though each successfully rebounded from slow starts.
Of the three, Semien has enjoyed the best overall season, with a WAR of 4.0. He's slashed .244/.304/.415 for a .719 OPS and an OPS+ of 105. He's also hit 20 homers and knocked in 65 runs while being successful in 20-of-24 stolen base attempts. The one negative for Semien has been his defense, surprising for someone who won a Gold Glove at second while with the Blue Jays last year -- Semien is a -1 in defensive runs saved.
Baez, meanwhile, has clearly had the most disappointing season. His WAR is just 1.6 with a slash line of .224/.268/.368 for a .636 OPS and an OPS+ of 83. Baez has 12 homers and 49 RBI with eight stolen bases in 10 tries. Defensively, he's been a -3 in DRS at short for the Tigers. He's hurt by playing in a bigger ballpark, and in a lineup that is far from intimidating, but by almost any metric, Baez has had an off-year.
Finally, there's Story, who falls somewhere between the other two -- clearly having a better season than Baez, but not as good as Semien. He's earned 2.2 in WAR, though it obviously bears mentioning that Story missed almost six weeks with a finger contusion and a broken bone in his wrist. Had Story been healthy for that time, his WAR might be approaching that of Semien.
He's slashed .232/.298/.425 with 15 homers and 58 RBI. His OPS+ is decidedly average at 98. He was undoubtedly hampered by a late-spring signing, which was further complicated by the arrival of his first child, causing him to miss more time in spring training. Then, just as the season got underway, Story fell victim to a bug that sidelined him for a handful of days and sapped his strength.
But he's easily been the best defender of the bunch with six defensive runs saved and he's been perfect as a base stealer (12-for-12). Cora has said, without reservation, that Story has been the best second baseman in the league, an assertion that is (mostly) backed up by the defensive metrics. Only Cleveland's Andres Gimenez, who has nine defensive runs saved, has outperformed him.
Story's batting average has been the one major disappointment, a function of his struggles to make consistent contact, especially early in the season. But his power, his glovework and his baserunning have all been well above average.
The lone question for next year: will Story remain at second base? If Xander Bogaerts isn't extended, the Sox could shift Story back to short, or they could choose to keep him at second and pursue another shortstop.
Once again, the middle infield free agent class is a strong one. Correa could opt out and put himself on the market for a second straight winter. Other names of note: Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson.
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Bravo to the Major League Players Association for taking steps to help unionize minor leaguers, who for too long have been treated like indentured servants and have been without representation or avenues of redress.
For too long, minor leaguers have worked for poverty wages, forced to live as itinerant seasonal workers, lumped together with a handful of teammates, and forced to subsist on fast food. The chance to organize and have collective bargaining rights will improve their standard of living.
Many fans come to think of minor leaguers as young men living their dreams, but the conditions under which many live -- crammed in substandard housing, with mattresses piled in room after room -- would be shocking to most. Players aren't paid during spring training and face uncertainty throughout the season. The top prospects, buoyed by big signing bonuses, can survive just fine. But those are the exceptions rather than the rule.
In recent years, with the threat of class action suits and exposure from tenacious reporting, Major League Baseball has begrudgingly improved things for minor leaguers. Some organizations, the Red Sox included, have boosted pay throughout their affiliates and provided suitable housing. But much more needs to be done.
The road to having the union approved and certified will be a long run. But a necessary first step has begun.