New Celtics signee Danilo Gallinari tore his left meniscus in a Eurobasket game over the weekend. Considering the way the injury first looked, the torn meniscus diagnosis is actually good news, but it’s not the best-case scenario. Here’s a quick look at what this means for the Celtics.
- How bad is it, really?
This is the real question. This is the same injury, at least in name, that Robert Williams suffered late last season. He ended up having surgery to shave down the tear (the meniscus is basically shock-absorbing cartilage, so smaller tears can be whittled away) and was back in less than a month.
Right now, we don’t know how bad the tear is or where it is located, two factors that will determine the course of action. If it’s an injury that can be fixed with similar surgery, then Gallinari could conceivably be back in October and maybe even in time for the start of the season.
This is probably a best-case time frame considering his age and the fact that he’ll need time to actually get acclimated, but the far-end of a 4-6 week timeframe still falls in the preseason. The Celtics could give him time to get some practices and extra rehab at that point if necessary, so his missed time could be minimal in this scenario.
But this is just one of a few scenarios.
“There are some tears that we just know need surgery,” said sports medicine doctor and BSJ contributor Dr. Jessica Flynn when Robert Williams first tore his meniscus. “If they're really big or if they're causing mechanical problems where the knee is locking up, we know those need surgery. But there are some that are smaller that we don't necessarily have to jump to surgery for … the MRI is really the most important thing.”
If the meniscus needs to be repaired, then the timeframe could go from weeks to months. We’ve seen meniscus surgery recovery go wrong, like with Lonzo Ball in Chicago, so it’s hard to put exact numbers on what Gallinari might be facing. However, even a four month recovery could still put Gallo on a path to return by Christmas. That's still early enough in the season for the Celtics to consider stopgap options. There's still a good chance he plays most of the season.
- What if he doesn’t?
If things go really, really wrong, the Celtics have a couple of options.
If, for some reason, he’s done for the season, they can apply for a disabled player exception. The disabled player exception only applies if the player is ruled out for the season (for example, the OKC Thunder just applied for one for the loss of rookie Chet Holmgren, who suffered a season-ending foot injury). According to cap expert Larry Coon, the following parameters apply:
The team may sign a free agent for one season only, for 50% of the disabled player's salary or the amount of the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception, whichever is less.
The team may trade for a player in the last season of his contract only (including any option years), who is making no more than 50% plus $100,000 of the disabled player's salary, or the amount of the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception plus $100,000, whichever is less.
The team may claim a player on waivers who is in the last season of his contract only (including any option years), who is making no more than 50% of the disabled player's salary, or the amount of the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception, whichever is less.
If he’s out for longer than expected (into 2023, perhaps? The All-Star break?), the Celtics can try to use one of their two large Traded Player Exceptions to trade for a player making $6.9 million or less, or $5.89 million or less.
This will prove costly because they're already almost $20 million over the tax line. Using a TPE to add a player making $5 million will cost them more than $18 million in taxes.
They may just decide to cross their fingers and hope for the best.
- So how do they hold down the fort?
If we’re being realistic, I can see the Celtics ownership group asking if the C’s can just get by for now. Honestly, that's fair enough considering Gallo is a 7th or 8th man.
This could mean more minutes in the short term for Sam Hauser. He’s already going to get a shot, and a 6’7”, he at least brings some length to the floor.
This might open the door for Noah Vonleh, who has the size but doesn’t have the shooting. However, if the C’s need a big body to spell Al Horford, Vonleh could fill a void left by Gallo’s injury.
It also could just add some emphasis to the small lineups with Malcolm Brogdon on the perimeter. They can slide Jaylen Brown to the 3 and Jayson Tatum to the 4 with Robert Williams at the 5 and give Al Horford breaks that way.
They also have Mfiondu Kabengele on his two-way deal, which allows him to play 50 regular season games. They could front load those appearances to help make up for Gallinari’s absence.
The bottom line is the Celtics actually have options to weather this injury. It’s impossible to predict how this will go, but the most likely scenario seems to point to Gallo missing at least some regular season time. I doubt he will miss the whole season, but there's certainly a universe where he has a long-haul recovery.
More likely, though, is something that sees him coming back at some point in 2022. Will it be the preseason? Will it be Christmas?
Chances are the Celtics will rely on their depth to get through this recovery, which could open up enough of a door that someone we didn’t expect to contribute gets a chance to be a surprise contributor.