It's possible, I suppose, that some baseball executive, somewhere, has had a more consequential offseason than the one Chaim Bloom faces this winter.
Possible, though not likely.
When you consider the size of the market, the amount of items on the 'To-Do'' list and his own job security, this is a hugely important winter ahead for Bloom -- and the Red Sox as a franchise.
In less than two months, Bloom will observe the third anniversary of his hiring as the Red Sox' chief baseball officer. To say the results have varied greatly would be underselling the point.
In his first year, stripped of his manager after Bloom had been on the job less than three months, he was ordered to make the best deal he could for his best player. During the pandemic season of 2020, his first, the Red Sox finished last in the division.
The following year, Bloom made a number of low-key moves which mostly turned out well. The Red Sox clinched a wild card spot on the final day of the 2021 season, beat the Yankees in a one-game wild card game, upset the division-winning Rays in the ALDS and got to within two games of winning the American League pennant before the ride ended.
This season has been been a disaster, with holes up and down the roster. Barring a big turnaround in September, the team is likely to finish out of the playoffs and in last place again.
Then comes the real hard work this winter: determining the future of his two best players, Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers, in addition to turning around the on-field product and putting his team back into contention for 2023.
This season has another five and a half weeks remaining, but already, the picture for next season is murky. The calendar flips to September this Thursday, and yet, it's virtually impossible to know what the Red Sox will look like next March at any single position on the field.
Try naming a position and providing, with a degree of certainty, who will be the starter there next March. It can't be done. Yes, it's a virtual guarantee that a handful of players will be on the roster and in the starting lineup. But exactly where is another matter altogether. For instance, Trevor Story will be in the lineup against the Orioles at Fenway on March 30. But will be at second base, or at shortstop in place of Bogaerts?
Let's look and see where things stand:
CATCHER: Kevin Plawecki is a free agent. Reese McGuire is under control through 2025.
This will be one of the more fascinating spots on the roster to monitor. The Sox have no logical succession plan in place for a critical position, and it's easy to envision the team going in any number of positions.
They could bring back Plawecki to continue in a platoon with McGuire. They could make McGuire the No. 1 catcher and augment him with Connor Wong, who has made big strides in the second half of the season in Worcester. They could re-sign free agent Christian Vazquez -- a move under consideration, according to an industry source -- and team him with McGuire. Or they could trade for a No. 1 catcher (Oakland's Sean Murphy could be one target) or sign another free agent (Willson Contreras).
FIRST BASE: Eric Hosmer, Franchy Cordero and Bobby Dalbec are all under team control. Top prospect Triston Casas lurks in the wings.
Much of this will be dependent on Casas. Could he go into spring training and win the starting job outright? That would seem like a longshot. A more likely scenario would have Hosmer as the starter, with Casas beginning the season at Triple-A Worcester and Dalbec serving as the backup.
Once Casas claims the position as his own, Hosmer could be traded to address other roster needs. But that's not likely to happen over winter.
Will Casas get much of a look in September? Or will the Sox keep him in Worcester for regular playing time and at-bats?
The odd man out here is Dalbec, who has yet to grab hold of the position after two years.
SECOND BASE: Trevor Story and Christian Arroyo.
If Bogaerts is somehow extended, Story will stay at second base. If Bogaerts signs elsewhere, the Sox could either shift Story back to his original position or sign or trade for another shortstop and keep Story where he is.
If Story goes to short, Arroyo could be a candidate to take second base full time. One problem, of course, is Arroyo's injury history. He's already set career highs in games played and at-bats, but even still, won't hit the 100-game plateau for 2022. Can he be trusted to play 140 or so games at a set position? Or is he more valuable as a depth option, moving around the infield?
SHORTSTOP: Assuming Bogaerts opts out, Story and Arroyo are the only current options on the roster.
It's difficult -- though not impossible -- to envision Bogaerts being extended. The Red Sox appeared to have badly damaged their relationship with Bogaerts with their lowball offer at the end of spring training. Bogaerts had desperately wanted to finish his career in Boston. That may no longer be the case. Certainly, the chance for a second "team friendly'' extension has been greatly reduced, if not eliminated.
Do the Sox explore any of the other free agents (Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner, Carlos Correa)? Unlikely. If they're not willing to go into the high-end of the position market for someone they know, why would they do it for someone they don't?
A veteran placeholder for two years is a possibility, if they can keep the seat warm until the arrival of Marcelo Mayer. So, too, is shifting Story to short and handing second base to Arroyo. Or someone else.
THIRD BASE: Rafael Devers under control through 2023.
The goal is to extend Devers this winter. That will almost certainly take a commitment of more than $300 million, which would make it the biggest contract in franchise history, and more than twice any deal the Sox have given out under Bloom.
If Devers gets extended, he's at third base for roughly the next decade or more. If he can't be signed, do the Red Sox adopt the same approach they did with Betts and trade him before he goes into his walk year?
And if they do, who plays third? There are no internal options, unless Arroyo gets handed the job, which is highly doubtful. There are no third base prospects anywhere close to contributing at the major league level.
DH: J.D. Martinez will be a free agent.
Martinez has been the primary DH ever since 2018, when he signed a five-year, $110-million deal. At the start of the year, it seemed likely that giving Martinez a qualifying offer would be the short-term solution. But given his lack of production since the start of June, that's now virtually unthinkable at a cost of $19 million or so.
Cordero could conceivably move into this role in 2023. It would remove the responsibility of playing first, where he's struggled mightily, and allow him to concentrate solely on hitting. But even there, Cordero has been highly inconsistent.
Is it possible that, for the first time in their history, the Red Sox could rotate various position players through the DH spot, allowing them a day or two a week off their fee from defensive responsibilities? Sure.
It's also possible the Sox find a free agent to handle the role for the short-term.
LEFT FIELD: Tommy Pham has a mutual option at $6 million for 2023 with a $1.5 million buyout. Alex Verdugo is under control through 2024.
Pham has been a decent addition, and $6 million for 2023 is hardly going to break the bank. Given how unsettled the entire outfield makeup is, the Sox could lock in two spots (left and right) by exercising Pham's option and having Verdugo play right, where he's (mostly) played since Pham joined the Sox at the deadline.
If they chose not to do that, and Pham doesn't opt in himself, they'll need to either sign or trade for a left fielder. There isn't a suitable corner outfield prospect currently in the system. It would be tempting to suggest that there are always reasonably priced corner outfield options on the market, but then, that was the case a year ago and the Sox didn't get one to support Jackie Bradley Jr. in right.
CENTER FIELD: Kike Hernandez is eligible for free agency. Jarren Duran remains under control.
A strong follow-up to last season would have put Hernandez in an enviable position for this winter, whereby he could either command a multi-year deal here or elsewhere, or, at the very least, warrant a qualifying offer from the Red Sox. But Hernandez underperformed for the first half, then missed two months with a hip/core injury. He's played well since he returned, but the QO option is off the table.
Could the Sox negotiate a more modest free-agent deal -- something, say, similar to the one that brought him here (two years, $14 million)? Sure. It's not as if Hernandez has priced himself out of Boston.
As for Duran, despite every opportunity to do so, he's yet to prove he can be an everyday fixture. He'll remain in the picture, but it's hard to imagine a player optioned back to the minor leagues in late August is going to go into spring training as the presumptive starter in center.
RIGHT FIELD: Alex Verdugo remains under control for two years.
As we noted at the beginning, Verdugo is going to be somewhere in the Red Sox lineup -- exactly where is unclear.
He provides average offensive output, but is probably over-matched as a right fielder in Fenway. He's better suited for left.
Again, there are no internal options. The best Red Sox outfield prospect, Ceddanne Rafaela, has yet to get to Triple A and presumably would need to have half a season there next year before the Sox promoted him to Boston.
STARTING ROTATION: Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Josh Winckowski are under control. Rich Hill, Michael Wacha and James Paxton are free agents, with Paxton holding a team option for 2023-24 and a player option for 2023.
So, Sale and Pivetta are the lone experienced starters under control for next year. And Sale, who's pitched fewer than 50 innings over the last three seasons combined, can hardly be counted upon.
Obviously, there's a lot to do here. The Sox could pick up Paxton's two-year option for $26 million, and/or bring back Wacha on another free agent deal.
Either way, they need, at minimum, two experienced rotation options to go with Sale, Pivetta and Bello for 2023.
BULLPEN: Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck, John Schreiber, Matt Barnes, Austin Davis, Darwinzon Hernandez remain under control. Hirokazu Sawamura and Matt Strahm are eligible for free agency.
Oddly, the bullpen -- such a mess in the first few months when it cost the Red Sox an untold number of games -- is the most settled section of the roster for next year. That is, assuming the Sox are committed to keeping Whitlock and Houck there.
Those two plus Schreiber and Barnes give the Red Sox a good nucleus upon which to build.
They could re-sign Strahm to give them a dependable high-leverage lefty. For that matter, they could use someone who has demonstrated the ability to close, while keeping the holdovers as either multi-inning weapons (Houck and Whitlock) or high-leverage set-up arms (Barnes and Schreiber).
Even without a high-profile closer being added, the Sox are in solid shape here -- especially when contrasted to other areas of the roster.
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Even with the addition of a third wild card team, it doesn't look as though the final month will provide much in the way of drama for postseason spots.
In the American League, it's clear that the Yankees and Astros are going to win their divisions and get first-round byes. Cleveland is in the driver's seat for the AL Central. That leaves Toronto, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Baltimore and Minnesota fighting for three wild card spots.
In the NL, it's even more settled with the Dodgers and Mets the division-winning top seed, St. Louis winning the Central, and the Braves and Phils taking two of the three wild card spots. Milwaukee and San Diego will fight it out for the third and final wild card.
But while there may not be excitement in the standings, there will be a number of individual pursuits to track.
* In the National League, Paul Goldschmidt has a chance to become the first NL Triple Crown winner in 85 years. The last, Joe Medwick, did so in 1937 and in a neat bit of happenstance, also did so for the St. Louis Cardinals. Goldschmidt, who remains criminally underrated, could also win the so-called "Nerd Triple Crown'' by leading the league in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
* His teammate, Albert Pujols, is chasing the 700-homer plateau and needs seven to become the fourth player to join that club behind Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron and Babe Ruth. Pujols's at-bats could be must-see down the stretch.
* Finally, in the American League, will Aaron Judge break the A.L. record for most homers in a season, currently held by Roger Maris (61 in 1961)? And remember, he'll he chasing that bit of history against the backdrop of his own pending free agency.
Judge bet on himself in spring training when he passed on the Yankees' offer of seven years, $213.5 million and is months away from making a huge payday for himself. But first, he'll be immersed in one of the most talked-about milestones, playing for the sport's most famed franchise.