Three thoughts after the Red Sox dropped the series finale in Pittsburgh:
1. Red Sox miss a chance for sweep
Winning three straight against the same team isn't easy to do in baseball. It's especially not easy to do on the road. So the fact that the Red Sox lost the final game of their three-game set at PNC Park to the Pittsburgh Pirates is understandable.
Understandable, but not acceptable under the circumstances.
The Red Sox, as a glance at the standings will show, have their work cut out for them over the final seven weeks. They've given themselves little margin for error, and every loss -- particularly ones against really poor teams like the Pirates -- stings.
It's one thing to fall short of a sweep against a winning team on the road. But the Pirates represented a good opportunity to get one. They entered with the second-worst record in the National League and had lost six straight and eight of the last nine. They were 27 games under .500.
And still, the Sox couldn't pull off the win. They were shut out for seven innings by a starter (JT Brubaker) who came into the game with a 4.55 ERA.
It gets considerably harder from here on out. Their next three series -- one on the road, two at home -- are all against A.L. East opponents. It's difficult to imagine a sweep of any of those teams.
But it further ups the ante for the Sox, who realistically, have to win all three series -- or the equivalent, by going 6-3 -- over the next nine games in order to make up ground. When this stretch concludes, it will be almost September. Falling further back in the race is not an option. The Sox have to make up ground, and they need to do so when given the opportunity to beat teams who are ahead of them in the standings -- as each of the next three opponents are.
2. Is Reese McGuire the Sox' new No. 1 catcher?
For the third straight game, and fourth time in the last five games, McGuire was in Boston's starting lineup.
It's doubtful that when the Sox acquired McGuire on the day of the trade deadline that they expected McGuire to claim the top spot. He was acquired to give the Sox another catcher with major league experience to team with Kevin Plawecki after Christian Vazquez was shockingly dealt the day before. It was, instead, easy to imagine the two sharing the role, either as an offensive platoon -- McGuire is a lefthanded hitter while Plawecki hits righty -- or, based on pairings with certain Red Sox starters.
But Plawecki hasn't hit all year. At all. He has a .480 OPS and an OPS+ of 35. In 124 at-bats, he has just six extra-base hits. Worse, teams have run rampant on Plawecki, stealing 33-of-37 bases, a 10.8 throw-out rate. (League average is about 27 percent).
McGuire arrived with a reputation as a solid receiver who can also throw well. He did not have the reputation of a great hitter, but he's done fine in that regard, too, With a single in three trips Thursday night, he's hit safely in eight of his nine games with the Sox since joining them and is 11-for-28 (.393).
It's not easy for a catcher to join a new team midseason and acclimate himself with an unfamiliar pitching staff. McGuire has done that, too. Unless something changes, it would seem he'll catch the majority of games going forward.
3. Paxton unlikely to pitch this season.
James Paxton was about to begin his rehab assignment Thursday, making a start for the Red Sox' affiliate in Fort Myers in the Florida Complex League. It was easy to see him making four or five starts, building up arm strength and being available to the parent club by mid-September, allowing him to make three or four starts over the final few weeks.
But just two hitters into his first rehab start, Paxton, who underwent Tommy John surgery in April of 2021, didn't re-injure his left arm, but he did suffer a strained lat. He's set to be examined Friday to determine the severity of the injury, but regardless of what is found, you have to think he'll miss a couple of weeks, minimum. That takes him into early September, at which point he'd have to start building up all over again.
Do the math, and there just isn't enough time.
Paxton has to be viewed similarly to Chris Sale, in that anything the Sox got out of either in the second half would be considered a bonus. Sale, we know, isn't pitching again this year after breaking his right wrist in a bike spill a few weeks ago, after he took a comebacker off his left pinkie finger right before the All-Star break.
Now, Paxton is as good as done, too. The Sox paid him $6 million this year, knowing that they would essentially be funding his rehab, with the idea that their options on him for 2023 and 2024 would represent the potential for a payoff.
They will now have to make that decision without having seen him on a major league mound.