FOXBOROUGH — People love to get things twisted, so let's deal with a couple of facts.
Fact 1: The installation of the new early-down offense has not gone well for the Patriots. It's way behind most installs with first-year coaches who have the benefit of a slow build. In fact, it's been a disaster to this point.
If you really need some sort of proof, just look at Mac Jones' response to the first question he was recently asked about where the offense was at after two padded practices.
"Yeah, I think we have a lot of room to grow here," he said. "The goal for me is to not run the ball and throw it so, I think our offensive line is doing a good job, and we just have to get on the same page.
"Yeah, I think we’re all just trying to learn and figure it out and just move along here."
For a guy raised by Nick Saban and Bill Belichick, that's pretty damning.
Fact 2: It could get progressively better. This afternoon starts a new work week for the Patriots. A new day. We'll see if they're in pads both days of practice ahead of the preseason opener, but they've taken minimal baby steps to this point.
Fact 3: Both previous facts can be true. They can be a disaster for three padded practices, and become a functional offense in time.
Normally it takes a high level of technique coaching from instructors with years of experience in said system and the right personnel to do that — and both may be lacking in New England — and it could happen here.
Do I think that's going to happen?
No, I don't. If the Patriots had a zone blocking guru in charge of at least the offensive line and personnel that you knew could run the system, they would have a chance. They have neither.
My prediction: Patriots pull the plug on it after the second exhibition (Panthers).
In my opinion, there needs to be tangible on-field progress by the conclusion of that game. They'll test it hard in the two joint practices with Carolina on Aug. 16 and 17, maybe dabble in it during the game if the starters even play, and then make a decision one way or the other. Do I think they'll junk it entirely? No. The Patriots have always used it at times depending on the opponent. But they'll talk with Mac Jones and David Andrews — if those two don't voice their opinions earlier — and the two offensive leaders will say this isn't working and everyone would be more comfortable if they stick more with gap runs and their occasional power runs.
Belichick's not a stubborn 70-year-old man. A year ago, everyone realized the team couldn't cover well enough to continue playing a lot of man coverage after the Dallas game, so they went to more zone and started winning. The coverage didn't hold up against the better teams down the stretch, but Belichick did what he needed to do to keep the team in it. And he was right.
Belichick for years has tried to tilt more toward the Shanahan scheme because it's simple and tough to defend at times. The veteran triumvirate of Josh McDaniels, Dante Scarnecchia and Ivan Fears always pushed against it due to not having the right personnel and the fear of not having enough time to get it right and wasting practice time on something that might not work. They're all gone, and replaced by Matt Patricia, Joe Judge and Vinne Sunseri who only speak in "Yes, Coach. Whatever you say, Coach."
We'll see if Belichick is really going to see this through, but if he's dead set on doing that even if it is designed to pay off next season, why not go all the way in and burn the ships by investing in the right personnel?
Start on the offensive line. Andrews can certainly run it, but he's not an ideal fit. Center is the most important position in the zone blocking scheme and you need a high-level athlete to do it. They have one in Cole Strange. Trade Andrews to Tampa, which just lost their center, and reunite him with Brady. Put Strange at center now.
Mike Onwenu is heavy footed and a power guard. Not ideal. Trade him and put in rookie Arlington Hambright. He's looked really good so far, as has CFL guard/center Drew Desjarlais. Put him in at left guard. Isaiah Wynn is a great fit for the scheme, but is he going to be here next year? Probably not. Trade him as well. Trent Brown also isn't an ideal fit, but someone decent needs to protect Jones and Brown is losing weight and getting more mobile.
Is Damien Harris going to be around after his contract expires? Why not trade him and go with Rhamondre Stevenson and the two rookies?
In many ways, the Patriots have half-assed making this switch. Didn't bring in a zone blocking expert to coach it. Are ramping down the practice reps (a second straight day off on Sunday, are you kidding?) which are vital for the players to make steady progress. Half the players on the line aren't the ideal fit for the scheme.
If you're going to go this way, for now or next season, might as well go all the way in. Stop with the half-measures. They're only going to lead to a full-blown mess.
The clock is ticking.