There's a familiar saying in baseball that suggests that every team is going to lose at least 54 games and win at least 54; it's what you do with the remaining 54 that determines your season.
On Thursday, the Red Sox played their 100th game of the season, so we'll use that round number for the purpose of this exercise.
The Red Sox were 50-50 through those first 100, leaving them with 62 to play beginning with Friday's series-opening loss against Milwaukee. Even with the expanded playoff field this season, it's likely even the third wild card entrant in the American League will need to win a minimum of 90 games to squeak into the postseason.
So, can the Red Sox win 40 of their final 62 games -- a .645 winning percentage?
Well, yes and no.
Three reasons to say YES:
1. They're getting healthy.
In the next week or so, the Red Sox will welcome back two starting pitchers (Michael Wacha and Rich Hill), along with reliever Matt Barnes. Rafael Devers and Christian Arroyo will be eligible to return in Houston.
Every team deals with injuries, but the Red Sox had the misfortune of having most of them in a concentrated period, making it impossible for them to overcome all of the manpower lost.
A rotation of Nate Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, Wacha, Hill and Kutter Crawford will give the Red Sox a chance most nights. That hasn't been the case for the past month as the Sox have trotted out a number of rookies, some of whom aren't ready to win at the big league level. With two games left in the month of July, they've gone an entire month so far without a starter earning a victory.
2. The worst part of their schedule is complete.
The Red Sox don't have any more trips to the West Coast. By the time they finish their upcoming road trip to Houston and Kansas City, the Red Sox will have just three games outside of the Eastern time zone -- three in Minnesota at the end of August.
For a team grinding through the dog days of the schedule, not having long flights and lengthy trips is a significant advantage over the final two months of the season.
3. They've done it before. And recently, for that matter.
After starting the season 10-19, the Red Sox went 34-16 from May 10 through July 3. That's a 50-game stretch, and a winning percentage of .680.
If the Sox can't play .680 ball for 50 games, what's to say they can't play .645 ball for 62 games?
Three reasons to say NO:
1. Too many games within their division.
When the Red Sox were busy turning around their season over a 50-game stretch, they did so without a lot of games against the American League East. They won't have that luxury going forward.
Of their remaining 62 games, 36 are against teams in the East -- six with Toronto, nine with Tampa Bay, 10 with the Yankees and 11 with Baltimore.
To date, the Red Sox are a woeful 12-29 combined against those four teams. And just holding their own going forward won't cut it. Even if the Sox could play .500 against their rivals in those 36 games -- a dramatic improvement -- they would need to go 22-4 in their other 26 to get to the 90-win plateau.
With so many games against teams in the East, the Sox have to play above .500 vs. those teams -- both to make the math work and leapfrog at least one or two clubs in their division.
Good luck with that, since this is a team that has yet to win a single series against an AL East opponent (0-10-1).
2. The deadline is likely to subtract more than it adds.
The Red Sox are trying the delicate balancing act of both selling and buying. They're open to acquiring pieces that can help them now and in the future. Additional control is important, however. It's not likely the Sox will be dabbling much in the rental market. Therefore, what they obtain by Tuesday evening is far more likely to be a younger player who projects to improve, rather one who will make a dramatic impact for the final two months this year.
On the other hand, the Sox could well end up selling off J.D. Martinez and perhaps even Christian Vazquez.
No matter who gets those DH at-bats in Martinez's absence, it's highly unlikely he will produce anywhere near to the level of Martinez so far this season. And that goes double for the catching spot. Kevin Plawecki is a big step backward from Vazquez, and that's also true of Connor Wong.
3. There are few signs of momentum.
True, that was also the case in the second week of May, when the Sox were 10-19 before suddenly turning on the jets and salvaging their season. No one saw that turnaround coming either, a reminder that hot steaks can sometimes come out of nowhere.
But expecting it to happen twice in the same season may be a stretch.
The Red Sox haven't even won consecutive games since July 9-10, some three weeks ago. Their last series win came in the final week of June.
They can't seem to get out of their own way, and it's hard to envision that happening anytime soon.