By most accounts, the veteran player most likely to be dealt by the Red Sox by Tuesday's deadline is veteran designated hitter J.D. Martinez.
Martinez, like a handful of others on the roster, is eligible for free agency after this season, and at 34, would not seem to have much of a future with the Red Sox. While a case could be made for the Sox retaining Christian Vazquez and even Nate Eovaldi past the current season, re-signing Martinez appears to be a decided long-shot.
Were the Sox to put him up for sale, Martinez would become one of the better veteran bats on the market. Juan Soto, of course, is the best player available, The next tier would include Pittsburgh outfielder Bryan Reynolds, Chicago catcher Willson Contreras and Washington 1B Josh Bell.
Martinez, though a DH, would be in that group, too. Few have his track record. From 2014-21, Martinez ranks second in Major League Baseball in slugging percentage, fifth in OPS, second in extra-base hits, fourth in homers and fourth in RBI.
This season, though his home runs are off sharply (nine), he's still among the American League's leaders in doubles and extra-base hits and his .834 OPS is third on the Sox among regulars.
"I believe that the first two months of the season, regardless of what people think about the power numbers, was the best version of him hitting the ball consistently on a nightly basis,'' said his manager Alex Cora. "At the end, the OPS is where it's always been; he was doing it a different way, hitting doubles and rockets to right field. He's been really good for us.''
Even the remaining salary obligations are modest -- by the deadline, Martinez will be due about $6.5 million for the remainder of the season, something that virtually any team can afford.
Already, according to sources, the two best teams in the National League -- the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers -- have both expressed an interest in dealing for Martinez. Surely there will be others as talks intensify across the game over the weekend and leading up to Tuesday.
In general, the return for pure rentals -- that is, players in the final year of their contracts -- has diminished in recent seasons, as organizations, more than ever, zealously guard their inventory of prospects, each petrified that they'll deal off the next Jeff Bagwell and John Smoltz, each of whom were included in deadline deals that would turn disastrous.
Prospects have never been more valued -- both because of cost savings and the game's focus on youth and athleticism.
But the expanded playoff system, with its third wild card entrant in each league, may have created a seller's market in which there are far more teams interested in upgrading rather than dismantling rosters, the few quality players may fetch more in return.
And there's this: a year ago, the Minnesota Twins were able to pry top pitching prospect Joe Ryan from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for another veteran DH -- Nelson Cruz, who is seven years Martinez's senior. It's probably unrealistic that the Sox come away with a prospect nearly as good as Ryan (7-3, 2.89) -- but they can try using that as precedent.
Three talent evaluators, asked what the Sox could reasonably expect to get back for Martinez, all painted positive pictures.
"More than you might think,'' said one A.L. evaluator. "I know people are making a big deal about the homers being down (just nine), but he's still a pretty good run producer. He has quality at-bats and teams will like that he's had success in the postseason (.987 OPS in 30 games, covering 109 at-bats).''
Said another major league executive: "I think they can expect a good prospect -- not a great one, but a good one. And if you get a couple of teams bidding for him, that will drive up the price, too, obviously.''
One source suggested that the Seattle Mariners would be a natural fit. The Mariners are looking to make the postseason for the first time since 2001 and could use more offense on a team with younger hitters (Ty France, Julio Rodriguez).
Finally, a third evaluator, a longtime National League scout, said the Sox may have to be patient until some other bigger deals get made for big bats such as Soto and others. eventually a market will emerge.
"From a pure talent value,'' said the scout, "I think the Red Sox could expect to get a good prospect and a second low-level prospect -- an up-the-middle type backed up in a system somewhere. I think there will be a couple of contenders who need a right-handed power bat and someone with postseason experience and (Martinez) could bring back more than is perceived.''