A clarification, right off the bat: the second half is something of a misnomer, since the Red Sox have already played 93 games, meaning they have just 69 games remaining. So they, like every other team, have already played more than half their schedule. But you get the idea.
Certainly, there are plenty of issues still to be determined. Let's start with a few questions and offer some answers:
1) What's the injury picture look like?
Improving, certainly -- with one notable exception.
The Red Sox got both Nathan Eovaldi and Garrett Whitlock back just before the break, and both will positively impact the staff -- Eovaldi in the rotation, and Whitlock in the bullpen. It's expected that both Michael Wacha and Rich Hill will return relatively soon, though both will need at least brief rehab assignments.
Infielder Trevor Story is also eligible to return Sunday, though that could potentially be delayed a few days to get him some at-bats with either Worcester or Portland.
It doesn't appear that Kiké Hernandez will return anytime soon. His rehab was halted in the final week of the first half, as he continues to battle a hip issue. Hernandez didn't hit at all in the first two months, but the Sox could use his defense in center, since Jarren Duran's glovework has left plenty to be desired.
And, of course, there was the loss of Chris Sale, reinjured almost as soon as he returned. Sale is sidelined until September -- at minimum.
2) How much help can be expected internally?
In the Red Sox pre-season thinking, they were hoping that Triston Casas might be able to contribute to the parent club by the second half. But that timetable got thrown off when Casas suffered a high ankle sprain that has caused him to miss the last six weeks. He's been cleared to return this weekend in Worcester, but will need some time to get his timing back and get comfortable facing live pitching again. Certainly, we won't see him in Boston until sometime in August, at the earliest. What sort of contribution he can make then is uncertain, especially if the Sox trade for a first baseman by the deadline.
Elsewhere, don't expect much from the system. The Sox have already tapped into a number of young pitchers, along with Duran, Rob Refsnyder and a few other depth pieces.
3) What's the schedule look like?
Challenging, right out of the chute. The second half begins with a 10-game homestand, which is good, but the opponents will be no picnic. The Sox will host, in order, Toronto, Cleveland and Milwaukee -- all playoff contenders. And when that's done, they go on a road trip with the first stop in Houston. So, that's 13 consecutive games against playoff-caliber teams to kick off the second half.
If the Red Sox don't play a lot better than they did in the final two weeks of the first half, they could seriously imperil their playoff chances and force the team to re-think its approach at the deadline.
4) What players need to show second-half improvement?
Well, how much time do we have? Other than Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts, virtually every other position player needs to be better in the second half than in the first. And yes, that applies to All-Star J.D. Martinez, who's on pace to finish with fewer than 20 homers in a full season for the first time since 2013 and who has a lowly .560 OPS since June 18.
The Red Sox have managed to be among the handful of better offensive teams in the league (second in runs scored) despite ranking last in OPS at two different positions (right field and first base) and 11th (out of 15) in center field.
That shows how much three or four players have carried the team offensively, a trend that likely can't continue for the entire season. Whether it's improved performance or new blood acquired at the deadline, the Sox have to better offensively at a number of spots if they're going to remain in the race.
5) What's the reasonable expectation for the trade deadline.
First, let's focus on what the Sox are not going to do: they won't be bidders -- serious ones, anyway -- for either Luis Castillo, the best starter available, or Juan Soto, the best player.
The Sox have only so much trade capital to spend, and they'd be wise to utilize it in a logical manner. Could Castillo help? Of course. But a rotation of Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, Wacha, Hill and Josh Winckowski is good enough. After all, until injuries struck, it was good enough for the Sox to have the third-best record in the league, and since the Yankees aren't about to be caught, the third-best record in the A.L. is the best the Sox can hope for.
As for Soto, as I wrote earlier in the week, the Sox aren't well-positioned to be in that sweepstakes. They have the prospects -- should they be willing to strip the system bare of their top four or so players -- but obtaining Soto would complicate their already ham-fisted efforts to retain Bogaerts and Devers. So cross Soto off, too.
What does that leave? Some bullpen improvements are still needed, even with the trio of Whitlock, Tanner Houck and John Schreiber giving the Sox the best back-end options they've had all season. The Sox need at least one more battled-tested, high-leverage reliever to add to the mix. Fortunately, for them, there will be plenty available. The trick is to find the right one, and do so for the lowest possible acquisition cost.
Beyond that, the Sox will likely have to choose between upgrading first base and right field. It's unlikely they can do both.
The first base names include Josh Bell and CJ Cron. Pittsburgh's Danial Vogelbach is another option that would be affordable.
As for the outfield, the names are less obvious, and the list shrinks further when you think about finding someone who can both supply offense and play Fenway's demanding right field. Finding that combination may prove to be difficult.
In a perfect world, the Sox could find a run-producing bat who could play both outfield and first base, and also get on base regularly, since the Sox rank 12th in OBP (.297) for the leadoff spot.
Wonder whatever happened to that Kyle Schwarber fella?