The baseball season, we're occasionally reminded, is a long one, stretching from April through October. It is full of unexpected twists and turns, of hot streaks and cold spells and some perspective is always in order.
The words "It's a marathon not a sprint" might as well be inscribed on the official baseball of MLB.
Still, taken as a snapshot, the picture emerging from the final two weeks of the first half of the season could not have been uglier for the Red Sox. In that stretch, the Sox:
* Dropped 10-of-14 games.
* Extended their intradivision series misery to 0-10-1.
* Saw their AL East record dip to 13-27.
* Lost starter Chris Sale to a broken finger until at least September, if not longer.
* Learned that center fielder/leadoff hitter Kike Hernandez was forced to halt his rehab assignment. Hernandez has been out almost six weeks, with no timetable for his return to the field.
Other than that, the first two weeks of July were great.
Even with the team currently nosediving, the Red Sox remain just two games out of the wild card race, with 69 games remaining. A strong week could have the Sox back in the middle of the playoff push.
What's more, the team expects a number of players to soon rejoin the parent club. Starting pitchers Michael Wacha (heavy arm) and Rich Hill (knee) are expected back within the next two weeks, and Josh Winckowski (COVID-19) will be cleared to return within days of the start of the second half. Second baseman Trevor Story (hand) is also eligible to be activated Sunday.
That's a lot of important players set to rejoin and contribute to the active roster.
But there are other considerations not the least of which is the schedule. The Red Sox will begin the second half with a long 10-game homestand. But their opponents will be three playoff contenders: Toronto, Cleveland and Milwaukee. And when they finish with that gauntlet, the Sox will travel to Houston to face the Astros for three -- with the trade deadline arrived -- against the team with the second-best record in the American League.
And there is this: of the team's remaining 69 games, more than half (35) will come against teams in the AL East, against whom the Sox have been sorely outclassed. If the Red Sox can't figure out a way to play close to .500 in those games (current division winning percentage: .325), the postseason will be well beyond their reach.
Even before the Sox' hellish start to July, industry sources indicated that chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom had yet to commit himself to adding to the roster by the deadline. It's doubtful that his team's play over the last two weeks did anything to change his mind. Meanwhile, the demanding nature of the club's schedule until the Aug. 2 deadline suggests that making up ground right away could prove problematic.
Still, a lot can happen -- one way or another -- in the period of two weeks.
For now, it's hard to make the case for a full-scale selloff. A two-game deficit can be erased by Sunday, and with the expanded playoff format now in place, hanging around .500 can make a team a de facto playoff contender.
What's more, the Red Sox currently have a payroll in excess of $230 million. They committed to winning this season, even if some of their moves belie that goal. And given that more than a half-dozen core players on the current roster are moving inexorably closer to free agency -- Xander Bogaerts, Nathan Eovaldi, J.D. Martinez, Christian Vazquez, Wacha, Matt Strahm -- it would seem a curious strategy to be holding a fire sale.
Why not stick it out, with so many players on the current roster headed out the door in November? A wholesale sell-off of established players will mean the Red Sox' roster will be full of prospects for the final two months, resulting in a non-competitive team. Fans bought tickets for August and September with the expectation that the Sox would be playoff contenders.
Another factor to consider: in recent years, thanks to the growth of the Prospect Industrial Complex, the value of talented minor leagues has been higher. Thus, even the best "rentals'' -- players on soon-to-be-expiring deals -- are going to fetch less than they used to. Occasionally, a team can strike it big, as the Minnesota Twins did last year when they shipped 41-year-old DH Nelson Cruz to Tampa Bay and came away with a package that included starting pitcher Joe Ryan (6-3, 2.99 in 14 starts this season). If the Sox could assure themselves of a similar return for Martinez, they should consider it. Otherwise, it would make more sense to hold onto him.
(There's also the matter of draft pick compensation for the loss of free agents. The current system is likely to change, since it's now tied to the potential introduction of an international draft, but the consensus throughout the game is that some form of compensation will be in place, meaning the Sox will reap extra picks should they lose, say, Bogaerts, Eovaldi, Martinez and Vazquez to free agency).
Nor is it likely that the Sox can be convinced to go all-in at the deadline and make dramatic upgrades. Bloom zealously guards his prospect inventory like a mama bear protects her cubs, so any thought of the Sox outbidding other interested teams for the likes of Luis Castillo, or certainly, Juan Soto, seems out of the question.
A far more plausible scenario could have the Sox acquiring a useful bullpen piece or two, along with someone who could help upgrade either right field or first base, while also agreeing to sell off a piece or two.
Given the sheer number of relievers on non-contending teams, the asking price would likely be relatively affordable, and the Sox could likely net more in terms of prospect value by taking offers for an expendable piece (Wacha?).
If that sounds like a halfway approach, it is. Then again, what would you expect for a team that is just three games over .500, nearly as close to last place as it is to the final wild-card spot, unsure of whether it profiles as a contender or merely a pretender?