The MLB trade deadline is still more than three weeks away, and lots can change between now and then.
Just ask the Red Sox.
Independent of what takes place on the field and in the standings, the roster figures to have a different look in another two weeks -- even before the Aug. 2 deadline. For that matter, how a reconstituted roster performs could also impact what they do -- or choose not to do -- at the deadline.
Soon, perhaps as early as the middle of this week, the Red Sox will be getting some of the 10 (!!) players currently occupying spots on the Injured List. If some return and remain healthy, it may eliminate a need or two on the deadline shopping list.
Conversely, if they come back and don't have much impact, or, worse, suffer a physical setback, it may spur the Sox to be more aggressive by Aug. 2.
Here's a look at how things could look at a number of different spots on the field.
CENTER FIELD
Kike Hernandez has been out of the lineup since the first week of June, more than a month ago, with a right hip flexor strain. Hernandez began a rehab assignment at Triple-A Worcester Friday night, and though he'll need a handful of games to test the hip and also get his game timing back, he should be ready by the time the Sox go to New York at the end of the week.
That will present an interesting choice for the Sox. Do they simply put Hernandez back into center field and atop the lineup, where he spent the second half of last year and the first two months this season? Indications are: no.
Even before Hernandez got injured on the West Coast road trip, he was struggling offensively, as his line of .209/.273/.340 attests. Hernandez offers a defensive upgrade at the position -- he's far more experienced in center, where Duran has struggled at times with his breaks and routes to balls. And Hernandez's arm is clearly superior to that of Duran's.
But, Duran has become a strong leadoff option for the Sox in the absence of Hernandez. Through Friday, he had a slash line of .305/.360/.488 that, even as a relatively small sample size, is far better than what the Sox are getting out of Hernandez.
That doesn't mean that Duran will start every game when Hernandez returns. He continues to struggle against lefties, and there's no reason not to utilize Hernandez -- both against lefties, and certainly, late in games when the Red Sox lead.
But the Red Sox struggled to find someone to reach base and kickstart the order for months. Now that they've found that player, they're not about to relegate him to the bench.
Meanwhile, one of the interesting questions will be to see whether Hernandez will get playing time in right, perhaps platooning with Jackie Bradley Jr. Hernandez has played 75 games in right in his career, though none of those came with the Sox. Right field in Fenway is not for the faint of heart. There's a lot of ground to cover, and some tricky dimensions in the corner. But Hernandez has shown himself to be a fine defender and there's no reason he can't contribute there.
A pending free agent at the end of the season, Hernandez should welcome any opportunities for playing time, regardless of position.
What happens to Rob Refnsyder is less certain. The Sox have a four-man bench (giving them 13 position players), and that already includes Christian Arroyo, Bobby Dalbec, Kevin Plawecki and Refsnyder. The return of Hernandez makes someone the odd man out.
Could the Sox gamble that they could get by without Dalbec as a backup first base option. Dalbec's offensive contributions have been minimal, but he's a clear upgrade over Franchy Cordero at first. With Dalbec not on the roster, the Sox would be forced to turn to either Arroyo or Christian Vazquez as a late-inning defensive replacement -- unless Refsnyder, who has played first in the past, but not since 2020, and for only seven games dating back to 2017, gives it a try.
ROTATION
Here's where it gets crowded and complicated.
The Red Sox have spent the last few weeks patching and filling their rotation, turning to Connor Seabold, Kutter Crawford and Josh WInckowski to take turns that were needed to be occupied following a run of injuries to the principals.
Now, only Winckowski is likely to retain a spot.
Chris Sale will start Tuesday at Tropicana Field. Not long after that, expect that Nate Eovaldi will reclaim his spot. He'll start Sunday for Worcester, and get up to 50-60 pitches. Could his next one come Friday at Yankee Stadium? Potentially, as long as he suffers no setbacks.
Then, out of the break, the Sox can expect Michael Wacha to return from his recent shoulder woes. Those three -- Sale, Eovaldi and Wacha -- would then presumably join Nick Pivetta -- the lone Sox starter to answer the bell every time in the first half of the season -- and Winckowski in the post-All Star break Boston rotation.
Into August, the Sox can expect Hill to return, though, given his experience there, it's possible could utilize him out of the bullpen. And eventually, there's looms the specter of James Paxton. But the latter has yet to begin a rehab assignment, which itself will take several weeks as he builds up arm strength following Tommy John surgery.
By the time he's ready in mid-August, there may be other vacancies to fill.
BULLPEN
If you thought the rotation was complicated, wait until you see the logjam of bodies competing for the bullpen.
Garrett Whitlock is close to rejoining the Sox, and will return to the multi-inning relief role he filled so well. Along with closer Tanner Houck and set-up man John Schreiber, this will represent the Sox' trio of high-leverage options.
That leaves five available spots in the bullpen. Figure that the Sox will keep (at minimum) three lefties: Austin Davis, Matt Strahm and Jake Diekman.
That's a total of six pitchers, with two available spots. If Josh Taylor, now healthy but getting knocked around at Triple A on his rehab assignments, can prove himself effective, he would presumably force his way onto the roster. Or, perhaps his return could allow the Sox to deal from a position of surplus, and move one of the lefties at the deadline.
(It would not be a surprise at all to see Chaim Bloom attempt to move laterally at the deadline and move a lefty for another depth need, or even for a prospect. While the playbook calls for contending teams to trade prospects for more established present-day help, recall how Davis got here almost a year ago: he came in exchange for Michael Chavis, who had outgrown his value to the roster. Moving a lefty reliever to fill a bench spot, or for a prospect, would surprise no one).
That leaves a handful of candidates for the final spot: Ryan Brasier, Hirokazu Sawamura and Matt Barnes. Barnes is still working his way back from a shoulder setback, and unless the Sox want to DFA him and walk away from about $12 million in contactual obligations -- about $4 million remaining this season and another $8 million next year -- Barnes is likely to be part of the equation, if not, necessarily, part of the solution.
Both Brasier and Sawamura have remaining options, and both could be stashed at Triple A until such time as they're needed to replace someone for injury/performance reasons, or, in September, when rosters expand by two, leaving at least one pathway back to the big league staff.
Such a rejiggered bullpen -- adding Whitlock to the back end -- would greatly upgrade the Sox' relief options. Presumably, there will be further additions at the deadline, but the troika of Whitlock, Schreiber and Houck is a significant upgrade for now.
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Of all the moves Bloom did -- or didn't -- make last winter, the decision to not re-sign Kyle Schwarber is the one that can be most easily second-guessed.
Red Sox executives -- both publicly and privately -- maintained that J.D. Martinez's decision to not opt out of his final year on his contract did not, in fact, preclude the Sox from keeping Schwarber. But once the bidding escalated for Schwarber -- he would sign a four-year deal for $79 million with the Philadelphia Phillies -- the Sox took a step back and essentially dropped out of the bidding.
In retrospect, that was a mistake.
Argue if you wish that a four-year deal worth $19.75 million annually is not the best allocation of payroll resources for someone who is essentially a DH. And the presence of Martinez would have blocked that role for Schwarber here in 2022.
But couldn't the Red Sox have found a way to wedge Schwarber into the lineup most nights, either in the outfield or at first base, while also giving Martinez the occasional rest at DH? Then, with Martinez headed for free agency this fall, Schwarber would already be on hand and under control to serve as his full-time DH replacement for 2023-2025.
Surely, the Sox could have welcomed the kind of production that Schwarber has provided -- .221/.336/.528 -- for the Phillies. His on-base skills alone would be welcome in a lineup where too many regulars/semi-regulars -- Hernandez, Bradley Jr., Dalbec, Vazquez, Alex Verdugo -- have struggled to post an OBP of .300 or better?
But more than anything, the Sox could use Schwarber's power. His 27 homers would far-and-away lead the Sox, with only Rafael Devers posting a superior slugging percentage.
And the Sox could use some sock from the left side. Among their regulars, only Devers has been a force from the left side. Having Schwarber would add additional balance to a lineup that currently leans heavily to the right.
Where would the Sox hide Schwarber's glove for this season? He certainly couldn't be any worse than Cordero at first. And while Verdugo has played an above-average left field, making sliding catches on sinking liners his stock in trade, Schwarber could have been adequate in left -- especially at home.
It would have been a somewhat awkward fit at times, to be sure. But between left field, first and DH, Schwarber could have been useful. And as noted, having him in place going forward would have allowed the Sox to walk away from Martinez, several years older and in decline as a power source, this winter.
If Bloom can stress the long game and the big picture in accumulating future useful pieces, Schwarber could have fit that category, while still contributing in the present.