Jaylen Brown is the key to this whole thing.
Yes, Jayson Tatum is in line to be an MVP candidate. And yes, the Celtics have the current Defensive Player of the Year in Marcus Smart and the betting favorites for next season’s DPOY in Robert Williams and Coach of the Year in Ime Udoka.
But it’s Brown who stands as the key to the Celtics truly opening a wide championship window.
Part of this is due to his contract, which ends two seasons from now. The summer of 2024 could be a very lucrative one for Brown, who could sign a five-year max deal with Boston worth nearly $240 million. Boston will be able to offer him a five-year extension worth about $193 million right now, which he’ll probably turn down in an effort to get more down the road.
That's business in the NBA. Turning down a lot now to get even more later is part of the calculus for a star player, but it always leaves teams susceptible to a bit of wanderlust. The pursuit of greener pastures is always a risk in situations like this, just like it will be with Tatum when he’s in this situation a couple of years from now.
Most people hope Brown will stay and maximize this championship window. At 25 years old, Brown still hasn’t shown his best basketball, which adds to the intrigue of just how good this team can be. It’s also the other, more immediate part of Brown’s importance.
Brown came into this season off wrist surgery that limited his summer workouts. Shortly after training camp began, he went into health and safety protocols, and then dealt with a nagging hamstring injury, leading him to miss 16 games this season. While not injury prone to the degree of concern, Brown’s durability is something that could be improved. The hamstring issues are a recurring issue, and Brown will have to find some way to ward that off. Getting back to playing 70-plus games like he did in his first few seasons will go a long way towards him getting more recognition for his on-court prowess.
When he’s cooking on the court, he can score against just about anyone. He has become a lethal mid-range shooter, and when he’s in control of the ball, he can drive and dunk with the best of them. At his best, Brown is a three-level scorer with perennial All-Star-type stuff.
What Brown needs is more of his best, more often. He has been notorious for his first-quarter explosions that slip into quieter finishes. An 18-point start and 26-point total seems like a typical Brown kind of game. Few people come out as hot as he does, as often as he does.
After that, it seems like his time on the bench gets him out of rhythm. Other players have begun to take shots and the flow has led the offense to someone else. Brown getting that flow back doesn’t seem to happen quite as often as it should, for reasons in and out of Brown’s control.
This is part of why Boston’s summer acquisitions are important. Brown has been a valuable floor spacer for Boston, and a lot of sets force him into the corner where he has to wait and watch Tatum operate, hoping for a pass. The strategy makes sense to open up room on the floor, but it seems to be a waste of Brown’s overall ability. By adding Malcolm Brogdon and Danilo Gallinari, the hope is that Boston can find spacing all over the floor, and maybe Brown and Tatum can work more off each other either with or without the ball.
It falls on Udoka to keep Brown engaged. As much as it is on Brown to make sure he’s present in the moment, it becomes clear that sometimes his mind continues to wander. He is still prone to backdoor cuts defensively, though not nearly as often as he used to be. Brown being directed on the floor during an offensive set is not uncommon, which lends some credence to the notion that plays still linger in his head when he should be moving on.
The longer Brown goes late in games without touches, the more likely he is to isolate when he gets the ball. One of the team’s two stars shouldn’t feel like he’s missing out on opportunities to score, but it seems that when Brown gets the ball late in games, he’s focused on maximizing that opportunity a little too often rather than feeling comfortable giving up the ball and trusting that he’ll get it back.
Brown’s skills are amazing, and they're only going to get better. Another offseason to hone his dribbling and add to his repertoire will only solidify him as a potential All-Star. He has the skills to score in the mid-20’s most nights and erupt for 40 or 50 every once in a while. He holds the key to Boston’s future because he has the potential to reach the All-Star game from now into his early 30’s.
He, like a few of his teammates, needs to rein in his turnovers. His 11.6 percent turnover rate put him at 99th in the league. The Celtics would like to see him and Tatum (10.9%, 82nd) both climb out of double-digits, but a summer with a healthy wrist will now allow Brown to get his off-hand back into ball-handling drills, which will help correct some of this issue.
There's never been a question of Brown’s work ethic. He’s an extraordinarily hard worker who has taken incredible leaps over his six-year career. He's incredibly thoughtful and passionate about social causes aimed at making Boston a better city, which is admirable for a young man who could spend his time and money in more frivolous pursuits. He’s a star Boston can embrace.
Brown holds the key to all of this for one simple reason: Because as great as he is, he can get even better.
Sure, he can play at this level and be part of a championship team. He’s proven he’s good enough to be in consideration for a lot of individual awards and team success. He can never grow anymore as a player and he’d finish as an absurdly rich man with an incredible career.
He can also grow, both mentally and physically, embracing the very difficult lessons of the Finals to go and take those individual awards, and virtually guarantee team success. Potential is still a word to use with Brown, because he truly hasn’t reached it in full.
Boston’s financial commitment to Brown will be made at the appropriate time, but Brad Stevens’ offseason moves are the clearest signal anyone can send when it comes to his team. These two stars, Tatum and Brown, are the center of all Boston basketball has to offer. They are banking on Brown to be an unsolvable problem for other teams, and they’ll break the bank for him once he does.