NHL Notebook: Taking a look back at our bold predictions for Bruins/NHL in 2021-22

With the Stanley Cup set to be handed out in the next couple of days, it’s time to put a cap on the 2021-22 NHL season. But before we look ahead to the offseason, it’s time to once again watch me eat crow and look back on the many bold predictions I tossed out regarding the Bruins and the NHL back in September.

There will be a few small victories that I will gladly take a victory lap on … and other proclamations, well, didn’t age too well.

So without further do, let’s dive in.

 Bruins hit new scoring milestones on top line - WRONG

Going into the year, I had both David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand reaching the 100-point scoring threshold — becoming the first B’s team since the 1992-93 season to have two players hit the century mark. 

Ultimately, both B’s wingers came up short of such a lofty scoring mark — with Marchand finishing with 80 points in 70 games and Pastrnak ending up with 77 points over 72 games.

Of course, Marchand could have put himself in a position to reach triple digits if it wasn’t for a pair of suspensions (nine total games for slew-footing Oliver Ekman-Larsson and punching Tristan Jarry) and lingering hip/shoulder ailments that sapped some of his production in the second half.

Pastrnak was also hampered by a slow start (nine goals in first 30 games), but still managed to ramp things up en route to the second 40-goal campaign of his young career. Sure, Marchand and Pastrnak perhaps didn’t finish in the upper echelon of the league’s top scorers. But Boston isn’t bemoaning the fact that their two top wingers still averaged more than a point per game and buried 72 total goals.

Charlie McAvoy wins the Norris Trophy - WRONG

McAvoy had already established himself as a top-pairing, franchise defenseman in the NHL before the 2021-22 season got underway, but the B’s blueliner managed to take another major step forward this past season — making major strides in his offensive game (a career-high 56 points) while continuing to thrive as a shutdown ace and a transition trump card.

I ultimately placed McAvoy second overall on my Norris Trophy ballot this season, with the Bruins defenseman finishing fourth overall in the official vote — a step up from a fifth-place finish in 2020-21, but still disappointing in some regards given his complete body of work. 

Still, even though McAvoy can really do it all and impact games in a variety of ways, he wasn’t going to leapfrog a trio of blueliners like Cale Makar, Roman Josi and Victor Hedman who all recorded 85 or more points this past season.

It sure feels like McAvoy will get his due one of these seasons (especially with the 24-year-old nowhere close to reaching his ceiling), but he’ll face an uphill climb for however long guys like Makar are holding court in the league. 

Taylor Hall scores 65+ points - CLOSE, BUT WRONG

Through the first few months of the 2021-22 season, it sure looked like this was going to be a complete flop — with Hall struggling to find traction on a second line anchored by Charlie Coyle down the middle (9 even-strength points in 26 games). But after switching out Coyle for Erik Haula at 2C and bumping Pastrnak down to the second line, Hall’s game flourished — with the veteran winger posting 47 points over his last 55 games. 

So long as Hall remains on a line with a finisher like Pastrnak, it’s safe to assume that the former Hart Trophy winner can regularly secure 60 or so points for this team in a top-six spot. 

A McAvoy/Grzelcyk pairing is reunited by mid-November - CORRECT

Despite Bruce Cassidy’s efforts to roll with a top pairing of McAvoy and Derek Forbort out of the gate (a duo that was outscored, 14-6, during 5v5 play together), this switcheroo was all but inevitable.

Sure enough, the Bruins reunited McAvoy and Grzelcyk in November and didn’t stray from that set-up too much until Hampus Lindholm arrived on the scene in the middle of March.

While a Lindholm-McAvoy duo offers the highest ceiling and might be one of the best top pairs in the entire NHL, it’s not like Grzelcyk-McAvoy were offering lackluster returns in their time together.

In total, during the 418:28 of 5v5 ice time in which McAvoy and Grzelcyk were out on the ice together this past season, the Bruins out-shot opponents, 284-151, and outscored them, 30-10. 

Not too shabby. 

Jeremy Swayman wins the 7th Player Award ... but it should go to Erik Haula - CORRECT

When Jeremy Swayman was named Boston’s 7th Player Award winner for the 2021-22 season, it didn’t really come as much of a surprise. Even before the season got underway, the affable Swayman was poised to be a fan favorite — especially coming off of his fantastic stint up in the NHL ranks in 2020-21. 

Add in his strong stretches of play in 2021-22, his willingness to ham it up with fans during warmups and, of course, those goalie hugs, and very few batted an eye when Swayman took home the fan-voted hardware in April. 

But when it comes to applying the actual definition of the 7th Player Award — handed out annually to the player whole exceeds fans’ expectations — it should have been Haula, right?

I don’t think anyone expected the veteran forward to step in and serve as an effective 2C for the final four months of the regular season — especially after recording just one goal and five total points over his first 25 games of the season. 

Jake DeBrusk pots 20+ goals - CORRECT

What a roller-coaster ride this entire season has been for DeBrusk and the Bruins. From his standing trade request, media blackout, contract extension and his second-half scoring surge, DeBrusk tended to find himself in the headlines time and time again.

But to his credit, the hot-and-cold winger did look like a legitimate top-six weapon after getting bumped up to the top line with Bergeron and Marchand.

For all of the fears that DeBrusk was going to mail things in after his request for a fresh start was not granted in late March at the trade deadline, the forward closed out the year with 10 goals and 16 total points over his last 20 games, ultimately finishing third on the team with 25 tallies this year. 

The Seattle Kraken rank in lower third of scoring, but still punch tickets to playoffs - WRONG

Well, I got the lack of scoring right (2.60 goals scored per game - 30th in NHL). 

But a playoff team? Oooooof. 

Ron Francis’ decisions during the expansion draft and his subsequent roster construction did raise plenty of eyebrows, but you could have made the argument this past summer that the Kraken had the personnel to grind out points at a steady clip — especially with Philipp Grubauer and Chris Driedger anchoring their goalie corps.  

Have to say, I think Grubauer sure misses that Avalanche defense in front of him, because Seattle’s $35.4 million pickup was absolutely dreadful this season (18-31-5, .889 save percentage), and Driedger wasn’t much better (.899 save percentage). Add in a pretty flawed roster that didn’t have nearly enough finishers, and you had this train-wreck of a team that couldn’t mimic Vegas’ fast start in its first year as an expansion club.

Jakub Lauko pushes Trent Frederic out of fourth-line spot by December - WRONG

Even with Frederic’s intriguing blend of size and snarl, his propensity for ill-timed penalties and his off-and-on scoring production did put him on uneven ground last season when it came to guaranteed reps — with Anton Blidh even taking some of those minutes from him in December and January.

But Lauko? Well, it was pretty much a lost season for the Czech winger, who seems to have stalled as a top-flight prospect in Boston’s system. Injuries have hampered him a great deal since arriving in Providence, but even in his 54 games played this past season, Lauko was limited to just three goals and 16 total points — to go along with an unsightly -28 rating. 

Rangers lead NHL in fighting majors

After Tom Wilson dismantled the Blueshirts in 2020-21, one had to think that New York was going to goon things up in 2021-22 — especially after beefing up their roster with additions like Ryan Reaves, Jarred Tinordi, Barclay Goodrow, Patrik Nemeth and Sammy Blais.

And yes, while New York was a lot more prickly this past season, I think it was Igor Shesterkin’s incredible run between the pipes that put New York just a few games short of the Stanley Cup Final — rather than the addition of some bruisers further down in the lineup.

And if you’re keeping track, the Bruins (21) actually had more fighting majors than the Rangers this past season (18) — with the Blueshirts waaaaay behind the league leader in the Nashville Predators (59 fighting majors!). 

Islanders return to Eastern Conference Finals … again - WRONG

Yikes. 

Listen, at the time — it sure seemed like a Trotz-led Isles team was poised to grind its way to another sustained Cup run. But be it some horrid luck early on due to COVID, several players regressing or free-agent additions just not panning out — this squad just didn’t seem to have it. 

Ilya Sorokin was a definite bright spot for this Islanders team, but even his strong play down the stretch wasn’t enough to get New York back into the playoff picture following that brutal start.

Nick Ritchie scores 6 goals in first 2 weeks of the season - WRONG

Sure seems like the Bruins made the right call by not qualifying Ritchie this past offseason. 

Despite earning some top-six reps out of the gate with Toronto, Ritchie failed to make much of an impact with the Leafs — posting just three assists and zero goals in his first 21 games and eventually getting put on waivers.

Ritchie was eventually traded to the cellar-dwelling Coyotes, where he did manage to score 10 goals and post 14 points in 24 games with Arizona. 

Both the Capitals and Penguins fail to make the playoffs - WRONG

Another whiff from yours truly — with Pittsburgh (103 points) finishing third in the Metro Division and the Caps (100 points) clinching a playoff berth as the second wild-card club. 

Maybe this prediction will age well if I declare it once again ahead of the 2022-23 season? After all, the Caps and Pens are still dealing with aging cores that could be further decimated by injuries (Nicklas Backstrom’s hip surgery) or free agency (Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang). 

David Krejci doesn’t return … - CORRECT 

For as much as Krejci returning near the midway point of the 2021-22 campaign and giving Boston a much-needed shot in the arm would have been a storybook ending for this current core — such a scenario dissipated with every nifty feed and highlight-reel tally Krejci scored with his hometown HC Olomouc club this past season.

However, with Bergeron reportedly back in the fold for the 2022-23 season, don’t be surprised if Don Sweeney gives Krejci another call this offseason. The door is certainly open if the Czech native wants to return to Boston.

… but Tuukka Rask does return — after signing a league-minimum deal - CORRECT, KINDA

It might not have been league minimum, but Rask absolutely did his club a solid by inking a one-year, $1 million contract back in January — with a prorated salary of $545,00.

Alas, Rask’s expected comeback did not work out, with the B’s long-time netminder limited to just four games (2-2-0, .844 save percentage) before eventually opting to retire due to nagging injuries. 

The Bruins should still be set for the foreseeable future with a Swayman-Ullmark pairing in place, but it was still sad to see Rask’s impressive career in Boston end on such a disappointing sequence of events.

That being said, it sure doesn’t seem like Rask is regretting retirement, especially with the netminder still sticking with the Bruins organization as a corporate ambassador. 

Jack Eichel doesn’t play in any regular-season games - WRONG

Nope, Eichel wasn’t deployed as an LTIR weapon for a Cup contender in the same vein as Nikita Kucherov with the Lightning in 2021. I will, however, take a victory lap when it came to guessing the team that Eichel was eventually shipped to in Vegas. 

Despite coming off of experimental neck surgery, Eichel still managed to play in 34 games with Vegas in 2021-22 — with the North Chelmsford product scoring 14 goals and posting 25 points during that stretch.

With an offseason of good health under his belt, don’t be surprised if Eichel explodes in his first full season with the Golden Knights in 2022-23, especially with Cassidy now at the helm out in Sin City.

Connor McDavid cracks 130 points - WRONG

Alas, McDavid *only* finished with 123 points this season — the third-most points by a player in cap-era history.

Ho hum.

Bruins upgrade right side of defense at trade deadline - WRONG

Not quite. 

Yes, the Bruins did ultimately bolster their blue line by acquiring Hampus Lindholm — but prying the left-shot D out of Anaheim sure seemed like a necessity after some struggles from both Mike Reilly and Forbort. 

But you could have made the argument that the B’s also should have looked to add to the right side of their defense as well — especially given Brandon Carlo’s struggles this past season. 

Bruins trade for Tomas Hertl - WRONG

Ah yes, the Hertl narrative that I loved writing about for most of the past year. 

Frankly, IF Hertl was actually dangled out there on the market back in March, the Bruins and countless other clubs in desperate need of help down the middle would have come calling. 

But instead, the Sharks made the mind-numbing decision to sign the 28-year-old pivot to an eight-year contract extension with an annual cap hit of $8.1 million — a bizarre move, given that San Jose is already hampered by a serious cap crunch and not a lot of optimism on the horizon when it comes to its prospect pipeline.

Alas. 

Jeremy Swayman is a Calder Trophy finalist — in field dominated by goalies - WRONG

Well, there’s no arguing with the fact that Swayman offered the strongest returns this season in a field of other promising rookie goalies like Spencer Knight and Alex Nedeljkovic. 

But Swayman ultimately finished fifth overall in voting for the Calder — and frankly, he was a distant fifth when compared to a few other star first-year talents this season like Moritz Seider and Trevor Zegras.

Swayman still has all the makings of a legit, No. 1 netminder for this team over the next 10+ years. But just had the misfortune of being in a STACKED rookie class in 2021-22.

Boston finishes second in the Atlantic - WRONG

For all of the secondary-scoring woes, roster holes and other issues that plagued Boston over the first few months of the 2021-22 season, give this team credit for still rallying and finishing with 107 points in the standings. That being said, the Bruins still finished as the first wild-card team in the East — a direct byproduct of being stuck in an Atlantic Division filled with fellow juggernauts in the Florida Panthers (122 points), Toronto Maple Leafs (115 points) and Tampa Bay Lightning (110 points). 

Toronto loses in the first round … again - CORRECT

Sure, the Leafs pushed the Lightning to seven games in a memorable back-and-forth series … but a first-round loss is still a first-round loss for a Toronto team that still has not managed to get over the hump.

Tampa Bay places first in the Atlantic  - WRONG

I’ll rehash what I noted during our mid-season review of my predictions. 

Ultimately, I think the Panthers pull away from the pack and take home the Atlantic Division crown — and potentially the Presidents’ Trophy. But if you ask me which team I fear most in the East? It’s still Tampa. 

Star talent, a winning pedigree with heaps of experience, good coaching and … unlike a few other contenders, elite goaltending in place with Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Yep, that all seems about right. At this point, this Tampa roster just knows how to win — and doesn’t seem to put a whole lot of stock into regular-season results. 

Bruins fall to Vegas in Stanley Cup Final - WRONG

Yikes! 

Well, I once again will cling to the small silver lining that I got the Eichel trade correct. But otherwise … well, this one didn’t age too well. I still feel in my bones that Boston could have put together a lengthy playoff run had they managed to get past a Carolina team that was a DREADFUL matchup for them, but no point in falling into the “coulda, woulda, shoulda” talk now. 

As for Vegas, just about everything that could have gone wrong did for them in a 2021-22 season where they failed to make the postseason for the first time in franchise history. But with a number of key cogs healthy and Cassidy running things, don’t be surprised if the Golden Knights are right back in the playoff picture next season.

Patrice Bergeron finishes as a finalist for the Selke Trophy - CORRECT 

Alright, making a call like this was pretty much working with house money. After all, Bergeron has now been voted as a Selke Trophy finalist for 11 straight seasons now — surpassing Wayne Gretzky’s run of 10 consecutive years of top three Hart Trophy finishes as the longest ever for a voted NHL Award.

And to put the icing on the cake, Bergeron finally earned himself that sought-after, record-breaking fifth Selke with a defensive season for the ages.

Patrice Bergeron returns on one-year deal with Boston - MAYBE CORRECT?

It remains to be seen when Bergeron signs at the dotted line, but given all of the whispers and reports out there — it sure seems like a given that Bergeron will be back in a black-and-gold sweater for a 19th season in 2022-23.

Now, the real work begins for a B’s team looking to run things back.