Steph Curry is having an incredible series. He’s averaging 31.3 points and shooting 48.5% from the field and 48.6% on 3-pointers.
He hasn’t averaged this many points in a playoff series since the 2019 Western Conference Finals and it’s currently his fourth-highest scoring average in any playoff series in his career. The 3-point percentage is his third-best ever in the playoffs and his best-ever Finals performance.
It feels like he’s making everything, and it feels like the Celtics need to change the way they defend him if they're going to win this championship.
Or do they?
While we’re looking at his shooting statistics, the Celtics may be looking at another stat that has made Curry the most dangerous offensive player of this generation.
His 3.7 assists per game so far in the Finals is the second-lowest assist average of his playoff career.
This means Curry isn't breaking loose, drawing a ton of help defenders, and picking Boston apart with his passing. It also means that Golden State is missing shots, but that is something that seems baked into Boston’s defensive plan.
Let’s face it. We’re heading into Game 4 and Boston has a 2-1 lead with the Celtics mostly attacking Curry with drop coverage. If they haven't changed in three games, they're probably not changing.
The key adjustment for Boston is to make sure the big, mostly Al Horford, is high enough to accomplish Boston’s goal: Chase Curry from behind while having the big up high enough to make Curry feel like he can’t get the 3-pointer off.
Deep drop coverage looks insane.
This is how Jimmy Butler was defended. This is what questionable shooters who love to attack the rim see when they turn the corner.
“I wasn't up enough as I needed to be, and Steph got some really clear looks there and really hurt us with that,” Horford said after the game. “Then we gave up some kick-out threes that hurt us. I definitely put some of those on me, and I need to be better in those positions.”
To be fair, bigs have spent years building up habits that drop coverage means playing off a shooter. Also, Horford is probably trying like hell to make sure he isn’t torched by Curry off the dribble. Horford does a lot of things well, including switching out onto the perimeter, but Curry is just a different beast out there. Dropping back that far demonstrates a healthy fear of a dangerous offensive threat.
But as they teach in martial arts, moving towards the danger is the best way to neutralize it, and that's what Horford needs to do.
This is better positioning, though the contest could be better. If Horford attacked there with his hand up, he could be in a spot to make the shot more difficult, which would be just enough to accomplish Boston’s goal.
They want Curry with the ball in his hands, dribbling his way into 2-point range, and then taking a shot in there with some level of interference from the Celtics. What they don’t want is the dangerous version of Curry: the passing, cutting, relocating, running your defender through three screens and firing a catch-and-shoot 3-pointer that crushes your soul.
They don’t want Marcus Smart having to do this all night…
It might sound counterintuitive, but the Celtics are playing Curry in a way that seems to dare him to beat them by himself. They seem to be telling Curry, at 34-years-old, with some teammates who are not living up to their normal performances or others struggling to live up to the Finals moment, to do it by himself for four games. Ime Udoka is banking on his defenders being good enough to help each other should Curry shake loose, and on his offense to be good enough to make up for whatever run Curry does spark.
This doesn’t mean Boston will exclusively drop on Curry and dare him to beat them. They will throw in some switching if the personnel is right, and maybe even a blitz or two in certain situations just to mix up the coverages and give Curry new looks. A healthier Robert Williams makes a lot more options possible.
“We can adjust a little bit and we doubled a little bit here and there and switched a little bit more in the fourth to take away those threes,” Udoka said. “Four blocked shots but a lot that he deterred. I'm sure they missed a few of those threes with those contests alone.”
Whether it’s Williams, Horford, or Daniel Theis, the Celtics' big men have to make sure they're in the right position when the Warriors go to the Curry pick-and-roll. Step up, even if you’re afraid of the blow-by, because Curry getting into 2-point land is where Boston wants him.
Where everyone is spending these off days wondering how Boston can take the ball away from Curry, the Celtics seem to be content letting him handle things all by himself. They need to be better at how they're doing it, but forcing Curry to carry the brunt of the workload for the Warriors seems to be the plan, and it’s working so far.
I discussed this more on the latest episode of the Locked On Celtics podcast.