ROUND 4 - THE NBA FINALS
(3) Golden State Warriors (53-29) vs. (2) Boston Celtics (51-31)
SCHEDULE (All games airing on ABC)
Game 1: Thursday, 6/2, Chase Center, 9:00 PM
Game 2: Sunday, 6/5, Chase Center, 8:00 PM
Game 3: Wednesday, 6/8, TD Garden, 9:00 PM
Game 4: Friday, 6/10, TD Garden, 9:00 PM
Game 5*: Monday, 6/13, Chase Center, 9:00 PM
Game 6*: Thursday, 6/16, TD Garden, 9:00 PM
Game 7*: Sunday, 6/19, Chase Center, 8:00 PM
*If Necessary
TEAM RANKS
Boston:
Offense (Regular Season): 113.6 (T-8th)
Offense (Playoffs): 111.8 (8th)
Defense (Regular Season): 106.2 (1st)
Defense (Playoffs): 105.1 (2nd)
Golden State:
Offense (Regular Season): 112.1 (T-15)
Offense (Playoffs): 116.1 (1st)
Defense (Regular Season): 106.6 (2nd)
Defense (Playoffs): 111.0 (6)
THE BIG STORYLINES
The Celtics have spent the past month wrestling grizzly bears dressed in tank tops. They have had two grueling series against Milwaukee and Miami but have managed to avoid losing consecutive games to overcome a 3-2 deficit against the Bucks and to hold on after taking a 3-2 lead to beat the Heat in seven. The defense has been as good as advertised, even though the offense has struggled against similarly stout defenses the past two rounds.
The Celtics are ahead of schedule. This is an unanticipated trip to the NBA Finals for them, and the only people with championship experience are on the coaching staff.
The Warriors have rolled through the competition in a much easier road to the Finals. They beat a decimated Nuggets team in 5, A Grizzlies team in 6 that lost Ja Morant in Game 3 of their series, and an overmatched Mavericks team in 5.
They look good. They look poised. They look like their old selves. And they’ve been resting and waiting for this moment.
THE BIG PLAYERS
Boston: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Al Horford
Tatum is the first-team All-NBA guy. He’s the star. He’s going to have to make “best player in the series” a competition. And while it feels like he’s been around a long time, he’s still just 24 years old. As cool a customer as he can be, this is the biggest challenge of his basketball life. He will be tested in this series.
So will Brown, the team’s second star but also a forgotten man all too often for Boston. His last couple of fourth quarters in the Eastern Conference Finals were concerning for his lack of involvement. The Celtics will need both of their big guys to be at their absolute best to match Golden State’s firepower.
Horford is the steadying force here, but he’s going to his first NBA Finals as well. Maybe there's a second one coming down the road, but nothing is guaranteed in the NBA, so he’s going to have to hold things down on the back line defensively against a very complex Warriors attack. We’re not sure what Robert Williams will give the team, so Horford’s rim protection will be huge in this series
Golden State: Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green
This crew has been there before, and they have no fear. Curry is the greatest shooter of all time, and he’s capable of pulling from anywhere once he gets to half court. The last thing Boston wants to see is the logo shots start to fall and Curry start to shimmy and dance. That's like a wrestler signaling for a finishing move. The spacing created by the need to cover him so far up the court creates opportunities for everyone.
Thompson’s return has energized the Warriors. He’s not who he used to be, but he’s pretty close. Curry is at the top of the shooting list, but Thompson isn’t that far behind. Teams get caught in rotation against Golden State and somehow it ends up being Thompson alone in a corner … and you can see the “oh [expletive]” look on opponents’ faces.
And of course, Green is the ultimate swiss army knife. He’s a genius-level defender and he can find guys on offense and pile up assists. Teams play off him because he’s a bad shooter, but he can use that space in other ways to trigger runs.
THE BIT PLAYERS
Boston: Grant Williams, Derrick White
Williams is going to have to channel his inner Steph, the guy Jaylen Brown called “Grant Curry” after he shot Boston to a win against the Bucks. That guy is going to have to show up, take, and make shots. On the other end, he will be tested unlike he has in his career with inevitable switches onto shooters. All that talk about losing weight and being more effective on the perimeter? This is where it’s all going to pay off.
White is on a bit of a roll right now, so the Celtics are hoping he can carry that through the Finals. He just needs to take the open shots, drive whenever he can, and find his teammates on offense. Defensively, his skill chasing shooters around screens might be one of the top three necessary skills in this series. Watch for rear view challenges from him, maybe even a blocked shot from behind or potentially an offensive foul or two on Curry flailing his legs out to draw contact.
Golden State: Jordan Poole, Andrew Wiggins
Poole has been so good that Golden State’s most dangerous lineup involving him has become known as the Poole Party. He’s a dangerous scorer who will find seams created by others and rip the defense apart. Forgetting about Poole will cause Boston significant problems.
Wiggins has grown into a defensive stopper for the Warriors, and he’ll likely get the Tatum assignment. In a way, he’s become their new Andre Iguodala - the high pick and franchise player fallen from grace elsewhere rejuvenated in the Bay in a more streamlined role. He’s capable of filling it up as well, so he can be a dynamic two-way player. The circumstances of his rise to All-Star starter were dubious, but he was a worthy All-Star regardless of the team’s social media shenanigans.
THE WILD CARDS
Boston: Robert Williams, Marcus Smart, Payton Pritchard
It’s all about health for Williams. If he can be somewhere around 85% of his usual self, he has a chance to swing this series on both ends of the floor. If he’s a legitimate lob threat while also a composed, athletic defender, Williams could be the X-factor that delivers Boston a championship.
Smart will be dared to shoot and score. He has to remain patient and be the point guard we know he can be and not get pulled into an ego-driven “I’ll show you” shooting display. Maybe on a night he’s feeling it, he can let it fly, but that needs to come in the flow of the offense. When he catches a swing pass with double-digits on the clock, he still has time to work the defense and swing. Making Golden State defend for 20 seconds at a time will help Boston’s defense. Smart has to cooperate.
Pritchard, again, is a question mark. He’s tenacious, but who does he guard? If Boston can find a place for him defensively where he’s not hunted by Warriors shooters who want clean looks, he can be a valuable shot-maker.
Golden State: Gary Payton II, Kevon Looney, Moses Moody
Payton is looking to return from a broken left elbow, which is his shooting arm. If he can return, he’ll give the Warriors two top-notch defenders who can hound Tatum and Brown all over the floor. He doesn’t seem quite ready yet, but he seems to be working toward a return this series.
Moody could be called up to provide length and defense in Payton’s place. Obviously it’s a lot to ask of a young guy like him, but small doses of length and tenacity could be just enough of a different look to throw the Celtics off.
And Looney always seems to find his way into the conversation come playoff time. He can very easily be a difference-maker just by crashing the offensive glass. He’s been around, so he knows what he does well and he sticks to it.
THE STRATEGY
Boston’s offense: Challenge Curry and Thompson. Curry has been solid defensively in the playoffs, but the Celtics will challenge him to be more than that by putting him in a lot of actions and making him work. He’s either going to get tired, or slow down on the defensive end.
The Celtics will do the same with Thompson, who is not his former defensive self right now (and one wonders if he’ll ever reach that height again after the injuries). Put their stars to the test, wear them out, and defend with your offense.
The Celtics will also have to pick up the pace. Some might say that benefits the Warriors, but the Celtics have been very good playing uptempo where they make good decisions quickly.
Boston’s defense: They will test the limits of their physicality against the Warriors. Golden State has not been tested like they will be tested by Boston, and as much as the Celtics are in for a culture shock playing the finesse Warriors, Golden State has not seen a heavyweight like the Celtics in a while. They will sag off Green and dare him to shoot, stay home on the perimeter, and close ranks on paint touches to prevent shots at the rim.
Golden State’s offense: Steve Kerr is a smart coach and he knows that Boston is waiting with a lead pipe to use on his stars. They will use high-speed actions with multiple options to test Boston’s decision-making. Curry will run five miles in each game, going from corner to corner and back again to shake Smart, White, or whichever unfortunate soul has to chase him. Where Milwaukee and Miami bludgeoned Boston, the Warriors will be death by a thousand paper cuts.
Golden State’s defense: They will get junky and do everything they can to take the ball from Tatum and Brown’s hands. They want to blitz those guys from weird angles and force panicked passes that can be picked off so they can get out and run. The Warriors want to play in transition, and they’ll resort to anything they can to make it happen.
THE PREDICTION
I have labored over how this series will go and the only thing I’m fully confident in saying is this: These NBA Finals have the potential to be a classic.
My biggest fear at this point is the experience. The Warriors know what they're doing. They know what to expect. They have no fear.
Boston might not have fear either, but the weight of the NBA Finals will just hit different. There will be jitters and brain farts. There will be over-exuberance. There will be some hero ball.
So the first thing I’m looking for is how quickly the Celtics adjust to just playing basketball. Will it take a minute? A quarter? A game? Those are all fine. I expect Game 1 to be a tough one for the Celtics. But if it goes beyond that, there will be trouble. The Warriors won’t get rattled by Boston runs. They know it’s part of the game. They’re too good and too smart to give in to it. If Boston can match that attitude, led by Ime Udoka, they’ll settle in just fine.
Both teams are adaptable, which means we could see all sorts of adjustments in games and during the series. Ultimately, to me, the tangible, on-court product comes down to Boston’s defense versus Golden State’s offense. Boston’s offense can be really good just like the Warriors' defense can, but we know where their bread is buttered.
I’ll be honest, I trust the team that's been there before. Golden State has championships in their blood. I know what I’m getting with them.
Still, Udoka is a different cat, and I believe in his championship experience to be a major influence on the team. I think he can settle the guys down and get them to just hoop.
From there, it’s a battle of an elite defense vs. an elite offense. And you know what they say … defense wins championships.
I’m going with Ime and his guys to do just enough to slow the Warriors down. Golden State is a high turnover team themselves, and I think Boston can take advantage of that. I think Udoka’s unabashed targeting of weaknesses continues with Steph and Klay being put through a ringer, which hurts them on the other end.
And I trust this physical defense to wear Golden State down. Boston is the Celtics, but they're also the Road Warriors, and I think they’ll get the job done.
I’m betting on a parade.
Celtics in 7.