Comparing stats and won-loss records from one season to the next is problematic.
Roster change, injuries happen and no two seasons are alike.
Still, there's something ominous about the first two months of the 2022 Red Sox season.
Last year, when they didn't clinch a wild card spot for the postseason until Game No, 162, the Red Sox at least had the good sense to beat up on the Baltimore Orioles, perennial cellar dwellers in the otherwise competitive American League East. Although they dropped the final series of the year with the O's at Camden Yards, in the final week of the season, they were 13-6 against the woeful Orioles, a winning percentage of nearly .700.
This year? This year, things are different.
It's not even June, but already, the Red Sox have lost five times to the Orioles, or one fewer loss than they had in 19 head-to-head meetings last year.
Yes, the Orioles are improved. Yes, they're finally reaping the "rewards'' of one last place finish after another, as some of their top draft picks like catcher Adley Rutschman have finally migrated to the big leagues.
But they're still a well-below .500 team, still in last place in the division. And yet, they've managed to win both series against the Red Sox this season, taking two out three in Baltimore last month, while going 3-2 in the just completed five-game set at Fenway which concluded in most ignominious fashion Monday night with a 10-0 Orioles victory.
You probably don't need reminding that the Red Sox have also lost every other series they've played against the teams ahead of them in the division. They dropped the first series of the year against the Yankees in New York, and have also dropped a road series at Tropicana Field against the Rays, while losing to the Blue Jays -- both home and away.
It's one thing to not punch above their weight class -- using the current division standings as a gude -- but the Sox are also dropping series to the only team behind them in the East.
Approximately one-third of the way through the season, the Red Sox have lost every series they've played against a divisional opponent this season. Total won-loss record against teams in the A.L. East: 7-14, good for a lowly .333 winning percentage.
This is distressing on any number of fronts. First, it doesn't bode well for any end-of-season tie-breakers for wild-card spots. If the Sox don't play some serious progress over the next four months, they run the risk of being edged out for a spot -- assuming, of course, they can get over the .500 mark at some point and contend for the postseason.
Secondly, the poor divisional record doesn't reflect well on the Sox' ability to compete in the general. In a sport in which almost half (76 of 162) of a team's games are within its own division. (That will change next year, when MLB introduces more interleague games and reduces intra-division games). If the Sox can't play closer to .500 against teams in the East, it won't matter what they do with everyone else on the schedule.
Manager Alex Cora has preached the importance of winning series, maintaining that doing so consistently will hold the Red Sox in good stead. And before the series with the Orioles began, that made sense. The Sox had gained momentum by winning four straight series and were coming home for a less-than-challenging homestand.
But when the team squandered a big lead in the series opener Friday night, the tone was set. Had the Sox simply held off the O's in-game in which they led 8-2 with three innings to play, they could have, at minimum, taken the series, 3-2. That would have been underwhelming, but it would have represented small steps forward.
Instead, the bullpen coughed it up over the final three innings, and the Sox were playing uphill all series long.
There's also this disturbing trend: As the calendar gets ready to flip to June, the Sox have won exactly two series at home. Home field advantage has been negligible. There's little difference between their home record (12-13) and their record on the road (11-13).
Before the Sox embark on a challenging 10-game swing to the West Coast later this week, they'll host the Cincinnati Reds, who currently have the worst record in the National League.
That should represent an inviting opportunity for the Sox to sweep the two-game set, and take some momentum with them on their Wednesday flight to the Bay Area.
But as this past series reminded us, it's perhaps not wise for the Red Sox to take any opponent for granted this season. A losing record against the Orioles is confirmation of that.