RALEIGH, N.C. — It’s going to be a very, very interesting summer for the Bruins — who could be stuck at a crossroads between another kick at the can, or the start of a painful rebuild. While there will be plenty to sort out with this club, especially with the team’s “break-up” day set for this week, here are four quick thoughts on this upcoming summer for Boston.
This offseason can go in two VERY different directions — and it all hinges on Bergeron’s status
I know this might be crazy to hear — but the Bruins won't have the faintest clue on how they’re going to attack this offseason until they find out if their star center and defensive equalizer is going to be back in the fold.
"As Patrice Bergeron goes, so goes the Bruins" has been a familiar mantra as it pertains to this team’s performance on the ice over the years. But through a wider lens, the future of this Original Six franchise and just how lean these upcoming years will be all revolves around whether or not the 36-year-old forward is back for his 19th season.
Throughout this season, Bergeron has been very tight-lipped about his future, and it’s to be expected that the forward is going to take his time when it comes to his decision about wanting to trudge through another 82-game season.
At this point — even in the immediate aftermath of some emotional postgame pressers from Bergeron and Brad Marchand — my gut still says that Bergeron inks a one-year deal and remains on that course for however long he wants to keep playing.
Had he dealt with a lingering injury all season long, missed some significant stretches or saw his game dip below his lofty standards, I'd likely change my stance. But if you wanted a percentage, give me … 60% stay, 40% retire.
Now, if Bergeron is back in the fold and entrenched back in his usual spot at 1C, I really don’t think all that much changes with this team — at least in terms of MASSIVE shifts in personnel.
Bruins Offseason Cap card. Need Bergeron back or at least Krejci or it seems like a lost cause Cup wise. Goaltending is set, D needs a tweak, but need another center to be a true contender. pic.twitter.com/xaTztxwEsR
— Bruins Cap Space (@bruinscapspace) May 14, 2022
With Boston not exactly flush with cap space, the Bruins will likely only be able to make marginal upgrades — or at the very least, need to make some hockey trades to tinker with this group.
Perhaps that involves moving Jake DeBrusk and his contract for another asset. Do you give David Krejci a ring and see if a reunion could be hashed out?
Less than 24 hours after a disappointing first-round loss, the last thing some Bruins fans might want to hear is talk of just running things back with Bergeron — and hoping that some toggling and continued strides from players like Charlie McAvoy and Jeremy Swayman provide an added boost.
But if Bergeron wants to keep on playing, the Bruins are going to do whatever they can to keep a competitive core in place. And then, with David Pastrnak due for a pay raise in 2023 and a TON of money coming off the books with other forwards, the Bruins could try to drastically augment this roster that summer.
Now, if Bergeron doesn’t return … well, then things become a lot more dour — and a lot more interesting.
As I’ve noted multiple times when it comes to Boston’s options in case of a retool or longer rebuild, I don’t expect a situation in which the Bruins just slap a “For Sale” sign in front of Warrior Ice Arena, ship out guys like Marchand and try to tank for Connor Bedard in 2023.
Ultimately, the Bruins’ floor — especially with guys like McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm, Taylor Hall and Swayman in place — is still far too high to realistically tank to the level of teams like Arizona or Seattle.
No, if Bergeron does retire, I could see the B’s embracing more of a youth movement, perhaps by moving DeBrusk and players on shorter-term deals for draft capital and younger assets - while then perhaps giving a youngster like Fabian Lysell every opportunity to earn a spot out of training camp.
Two very, very different paths for this team. And all of it comes down to one decision from Bergeron.
As Marchand noted on Saturday night, “time will tell.”
Some cap room is going to have to be manufactured
If Bergeron DOES return, the Bruins are going to have to get pretty creative with their cap situation - unless they’re hoping that their captain is just going to sign for pennies on the dollar.
But even if Bergeron takes a cheap, one-year deal, the Bruins are not going to have enough fiscal flexibility to really improve this club in 2022, not without some money getting moved in the process.
Aside from Bergeron, the Bruins don’t necessarily have a lot of dominos set to fall in free agency. Curtis Lazar has been a dependable foot soldier for this team, but he’s due for a nice pay bump as a UFA - with Boston likely turning to internal options like Oskar Steen, Marc McLaughlin and even Johnny Beecher to account for those available fourth-line reps.
Elsewhere, the Bruins might have to sell off a few pieces in order to free up more cap space. DeBrusk stands as an obvious trade candidate, with his value spiking given his strong end to the season and a new contract well within market value. However, you could also make the case that DeBrusk has simply been too valuable for this team to simply cast aside in a cap-related deal.
Boston could look to move a spare piece on the blue line like Mike Reilly or Matt Grzelcyk. And when it comes to fiscal-related measures, it wouldn’t come as much of a surprise if Boston explores a buyout option with Nick Foligno, which would save Boston close to $2 million in cap space next year.
After opening their wallets last summer in deals for UFAs like Linus Ullmark, Erik Haula, Foligno, Derek Forbort and Tomas Nosek (a spending spree with very mixed returns), the Bruins don’t have nearly as much rope to try and fix the flaws of this team in free agency - not without some cash getting moved off this roster in the process.
Reilly or Grzelcyk?
While it’s pretty evident that this forward corps could use an overhaul, especially if Boston does try to run it back with Bergeron, the state of the B’s D corps is a bit easier to chart out.
With Lindholm and McAvoy in place, the Bruins have a top pairing to build around for years. A third pair of Forbort-Clifton held its own against Carolina, for the most part.
Brandon Carlo had some pretty rough stretches throughout the year, and his dip in play remains a serious red flag. But after signing his contract extension last summer, I don’t think he’s getting moved.
But on the left side of that second pair; it sure does seem like the B’s have a decision to make when it comes to Matt Grzelcyk and Mike Reilly.
Both puck-movers play a similar style, and with Lindholm's arrival and Boston’s now crowded depth chart, it's a good bet that at least one of these two will be playing elsewhere next season.
Regardless of who moves, something’s gotta give here.
Changes at the top?
Had you asked me at the start of this postseason if I expected the Bruins would potentially look at reshuffling their front office and operations staff, I would likely have brushed it aside.
Even though Don Sweeney is reportedly in the final year of his contract, the Lindholm trade, the encouraging returns put forth from January-April and what has been regarded as two pretty fruitful drafts in 2020 and 2021 likely gave him a lot more rope to work with.
However, after another series in which the Bruins were ONCE AGAIN doomed by the lack of a supporting cast around franchise stars, you do wonder if that sentiment has changed in regards to a new set of eyes overlooking the operation.
As for coaching, I’d be pretty shocked if Bruce Cassidy was at risk - not after guiding a talented (but as we eventually discerned, flawed) team to another 100-point campaign.
However, I do wonder if Cassidy and his staff do overhaul their systems and overall structure this offseason in order to draw more offense out of this group.
Boston’s stingy defensive structure limits shots and Grade-A chances for the opposition, but it does run the risk of stagnating your own offensive capabilities.
That’s not to say the Bruins are suddenly going to adopt a run-and-gun style like the 2022 St. Louis Blues or start looking like a 70’s-era CCCP squad.
But it’s clear that this formula, while helpful when it comes to accruing points and keeping you in contests, does present this club with a very slim margin of error — especially when you’re failing to bury chances or hit the net with regularity.
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Aside from Bergeron’s uncertain future and the loss of another year of this dwindling contention window, what makes this failed postseason campaign even more painful is the fact that a path was starting to open up for Boston had it managed to get over the hump and escape PNC Arena with a long-overdue victory.
Yes, anything can happen in the postseason. But Boston had to like its odds in a second-round bout against either a Penguins team hampered by an injured Sidney Crosby, or a Rangers team that’s been exposed due to their shoddy defense and some concerning outings from Igor Shesterkin.
And even though a conference-final showdown against either the Panthers or Lightning would likely frighten many B’s fans, it’s safe to assume that Tampa/Florida is poised to take some lumps after trudging through the meat grinder that is the Atlantic Division.
Alas, what could have been.
"Every year you go in the playoffs, you hope that you make a long, deep run," Marchand said. "And you get a good opportunity to fight for that Cup. We knew we were gonna have our hands full with this team. They've been great all year long, very well coached, very well disciplined in their system. They had a lot of depth.
"So we knew it was gonna be a tough battle. We also knew that if we got through this team, we would make a deep run. I think this is probably the toughest group to come out of the East, so obviously, we were hoping to beat them."
