Let's face facts: it looks bleak for the 2022 Red Sox.
Heading into Sunday's action, they sat 11 games out of first place in the American League East after just 33 games played. To put that in perspective, the only other team with a bigger deficit within its own division was the Cincinnati Reds, a team so inept that historians have been linking them to the 1962 New York Mets, the gold standard for modern-day baseball ineptitude.
Even the rebuilding Baltimore Orioles were a half-game ahead of them in the standings, a development that would have been unimaginable at the start of the season.
So, yes, we're talking bad.
But hopeless? I'm not quite ready to go there just yet. There's plenty of recent precedents that teaches us that poor -- even disastrous -- starts to the season can be overcome. In 2019, the Washington Nationals had a losing record into August and won the World Series. Same with the Atlanta Braves a year ago. And though they lasted just nine innings in the postseason, even the Yankees were nearly underwater after dropping the first game of a doubleheader on July 4, leaving them at 41-41 at almost exactly the halfway point before rallying to finish with the same record as the Red Sox.
With 130 games left, if the Red Sox were to go 78-52 to get to 90 wins, which would, at the very least, have them in contention for the third wild card spot. Are these Red Sox capable of playing .600 ball the rest of the way? You wouldn't know it to watch them play over the last five weeks, but if they can figure some things out at the back end of the bullpen and the hitters start performing to their capabilities ... sure.
As bad as they've been -- and they've been hideous -- it's not like they're getting blown out of games. Indeed, the vast majority of their losses have come by either a run or two. And if they had merely won half of their extra-inning games -- 50-50 games, in effect -- they'd be 15-18, at which point they'd be merely uninspired and underachieving, rather than earning the "dumpster fire'' label.
It's way too soon to imagine what they might do at the trade deadline. If things don't get appreciably better, I'd expect that nearly everything would be on the table, and unless your name happens to be Whitlock or Devers (too valuable) or Story (too expensive), literally anyone on the major league roster could be made available.
But let's hold off on the fire sale talk and imagine a world in which, over the next two months, the Red Sox claw their way back to relevancy if not outright contender status.
Yes, they'd then be looking to add rather than subtract at the deadline, But the focus here is on internal help, and the answer to the question: Who might be ready to contribute from the minor league season, and how much?
Obviously, the heavy lifting for a turnaround has to start with those on the major league roster. The Sox need a lot more from the likes of Kike Hernandez, Alex Verdugo, Trevor Story and others for this season to be salvaged. But let's assume they get that. Who could contribute from the minors?
TRISTON CASAS: In the estimation of just about everyone, Casas is the organization's top prospect and it's virtually certain that he'll make his major league debut at some point this season. For now, the Red Sox are wisely holding off on calling him up mid-train wreck, since the last thing a highly-touted prospect needs upon arrival to the big leagues is the expectation that he's going to turn the club's season around.
That would be unfair to Casas. As we've seen, sometimes even the most impressive prospects struggle upon their initial arrival. If Mike Trout can stumble, anyone can.
But what separates Casas from most is his elite strike zone judgment. He's not about to get himself out by swinging at anything or everything -- at least not often.
As for his role when he arrives, some of that will depend on whether Bobby Dalbec can start to make a contribution. If Dalbec figures some things out, he could still get some at-bats against lefties, while at least initially protecting Casas from facing them. As a lefty hitter, meanwhile, Casas would still get the vast majority of playing time since it wouldn't make much sense to promote him to the big leagues, then have him mostly idle on the bench.
CONNOR WONG: You can sense the Red Sox running out of patience with Christian Vazquez, and his mental lapses -- on the bases and behind the plate -- don't help his cause. For now, they're giving Kevin Plawecki more playing time, but like Vazquez, Plawecki is heading to free agency this fall and isn't part of the team's future plans. He makes frequent contact and puts the ball in play and works well with the staff --- he's become the personal catcher of the team's No. 1 starter, Nathan Eovaldi, an indictment of Vazquez in and of itself -- but he has virtually no pop in his bat and doesn't throw particularly well.
There's a lot that we still don't know about Wong as a catcher, in part because he's relatively new to the position. But in his infrequent exposures to the big leagues, Wong has not looked out of place defensively. The Red Sox like his athleticism and his ability to call a game. If he can show more with the bat at Worcester -- he's got a paltry .536 OPS at Triple-A -- he'd have some real opportunities to amass playing time over the second half.
Frankly, even if he doesn't hit a lot, the Red Sox may want to introduce him to a more regular spot, just to see what they have on hand. It's not like they'd be giving up a lot by moving away from Vazquez.
JOSH WINCKOWSKI: Part of the return in the Andrew Benintendi deal, WInckowski has been superb at Worcester this year, going 1-0 with a 2.75 ERA over five starts. The other day, he had a scheduled start shortened to just two innings, leading to speculation that the Red Sox were contemplating promoting him this weekend to join them in Texas. Presumably, he could have been insurance had Rich Hill not been cleared to return to the rotation Saturday night, or Winckowski could have started Sunday's bullpen game.
As it turns out, he didn't get the call, but there seems little doubt he'll be part of the Boston pitching staff at some point this season -- either as a back-end starter, or a multi-inning reliever.
CONNOR SEABOLD: Seabold had a strong spring training and impressed the staff and front office in his time with the big league club. His velocity has slowly ticked back up to where it was a year ago before he was sidelined with elbow soreness. Seabold's one start last year didn't go well, but that can hardly be held against him.
It seems almost inevitable that there will be injuries to the rotation in the coming months, where reinforcements will be needed from Triple A. Seabold (3-1, 2.93, 1.04 WHIP) is 26 and it's time to see how he might be able to contribute to the parent club. He's not a power guy by any means, with his changeup being his best pitch. But even in today's game, where it seems nearly everyone throws 95 mph-plus, there's room for someone who can throw strikes and keep hitters off-balance with off-speed pitches.
JARREN DURAN: Duran has a one-game cameo on the last homestand electrified Fenway as he sped around the bases on a triple. Duran has plus-plus speed, which is a skill few have on the current Red Sox roster.
Duran has some further development to make. His routes can be uneven in the outfield and he seems to be forever tinkering with his stance and hands at the plate, searching for the proper set-up and load.
But if the Sox don't start getting more out of Kike Hernandez in center, Duran could get a shot. If he can further refine his bunting skills to take advantage of his speed and make more consistent contact at the plate, he could be an intriguing addition to the roster.
It would seem unlikely for the Sox to "double jump'' any prospects from Double-A Portland to the big leagues. Yes, the Sox have done it before with success -- both Benintendi and Rafael Devers barely made a pit stop at Triple-A -- but that was under a different administration. Current chief baseball office Chaim Bloom is more conservative when it comes to the organization's developmental program and believes it's essential that players have some time at Triple-A, as a finishing step before being promoted to the big leagues.
That would seem to rule out a 2022 arrival of Brayan Bello, who is dominating the Eastern League (4-2, 1.60, 0.82 WHIP, 42 strikeouts in 33.2 innings), unless it's for a one-game spot start.
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The egregious blown call by home plate umpire Adam Beck Wednesday night in Atlanta that cost the Red Sox a run and may well have cost them the game, has re-started the debate over an automated strike zone for the major leagues.
Until recently, I was of the belief that the system should stay the same, and that the umpires got the vast majority of calls correct. (MLB officials insist that the accuracy rate on balls and strikes is somewhere around 96 percent).
But more than any time in recent memory, talk of strike zone discrepancies and inaccuracies dominate games. You hear broadcasters bemoan the lack of consistency and players are similarly consumed with calls.
The reason should be quite obvious: there's plenty of video evidence to highlight blown calls, as happened with Beck. You can see it on your local team's telecast, all of which have a strike zone box graphic to show the location of every pitch. There are apps that do the same, and even a Twitter account (@umpscorecards) that grade every home plate umpire every day on the accuracy of their strike zone, right down to calculating which team benefitted most from his strike zone judgment.
All of which presents MLB with a big problem. As with The X Files, ''the truth is out there.'' Fans at home can see what the umpires got right and what they got wrong. It's there for all the world to see, and when you have outcomes of games being changed and MLB not acting, you have a real issue.
This was the slippery slope that all sports traveled down when they began to implement video replay and challenges. Once you've sold fans on the idea that improper calls can be reversed, it's hard -- if not impossible -- to not apply that ability to self-correct to every aspect of the game. All four major sports utilize replay in one form or another. Tennis has replay to decide boundary calls.
As for the human element? Sorry, we forfeited that when the door opened to replay. We have the technology. Failing to use it to correct mistakes now looks suspect and promotes absurd conspiracy theories.
There are a number of approaches being work-shopped in the minor leagues, including a limited number of replay challenges per game per team. Charges that such a plan would be too time-consuming no longer hold water, since the arguments that take place in the wake of a blown call -- like Beck's on Wednesday -- result in longer delays than a challenge would consume.
It likely isn't coming to MLB anytime soon, as commissioner Rob Manfred noted this past week. With a pitch clock very likely coming in 2023 and the possibility that shifts could be limited or banned, too, the game can only absorb so many changes at once.
But more than ever, it seems that an automated system is inevitable. It's no longer a matter of if, but rather, when.