With the first round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs set to begin later tonight, here is a look at a few questions that could decide this best-of-seven series between the Bruins and Hurricanes, along with other predictions and preview content:
No. 1 Carolina (Metro) vs. WC1 Boston
Schedule
Game 1: Monday, May 2 at 7 p.m. ET (TV: NESN, ESPN, SN360, TVA Sports, RADIO: 98.5 The Sports Hub)
Game 2: Wednesday, May 4 at 7 p.m. ET (TV: NESN, ESPN, SN360, TVA Sports, RADIO: 98.5 The Sports Hub)
Game 3: Friday, May 6 at 7 p.m. ET (TV: NESN, TNT, SN360, TVA Sports, RADIO: 98.5 The Sports Hub)
Game 4: Sunday, May 8 at 12:30 p.m. ET (TV: NESN, ESPN, Sportsnet, TVA Sports, RADIO: 98.5 The Sports Hub)
Game 5: Tuesday, May 10 at TBD (TBD)
Game 6: Thursday, May 12 at TBD (TBD)
Game 7: Saturday, May 14 at TBD (TBD)
What lessons can Bruins take from a miserable regular-season series against Carolina?
Let’s recap a couple of things, shall we?
No, the Bruins don’t want to spend time harping on their lackluster showings against Carolina during the regular season — when the ‘Canes posted a 3-0-0 record against the B’s and outscored them by a lopsided 16-1 margin.
"You don't take anything from it,” Charlie McAvoy said of those lackluster regular-season results against Carolina. “The same way that you'd say if we played them and we went 4-0 and blew the doors off them. Do you think you're gonna come in and not see a different team? You're wrong. So I think there's nothing from the regular season that you really should take into the playoffs with you. It's a new season, anything can happen.”
And yes, beyond the fact that you shouldn’t put much stock into regular-season results, the fact of the matter is that this Bruins team is far different from the one that was put on the ropes by the Canes back in January and February.
Be it Hampus Lindholm’s addition to the blue line (and his contributions to Boston’s transition game), the B’s achieving equilibrium in their forward corps following a New-Years reshuffle or Boston finally receiving some clarity in net, the Bruins are better equipped to withstand the forechecking maelstrom and smash-mouth pressure that Rod Brind'Amour’s squad brings whenever they hop over the boards.
But even if Boston’s personnel has improved and you embrace the narrative that the playoffs present a clean slate from regular-season woes, a team like the Hurricanes and their frantic style of play validate that Mike Tyson quote:
“Everyone has a plan ‘till they get punched in the mouth.”
For years now, the blueprint to overcoming Carolina’s forechecking pressure has been mapped out. Manage the puck, connect on clean first passes and limit the amount of time spent in your own end.
You know what’s coming at this point. But, just like a Mariano Rivera cut fastball, just because you know what’s coming — that doesn’t make it any easier to overcome when you’re shaking in your cleats up at the plate.
Because for as much as the message might be simple in terms of managing the puck and making simple, clean passes under pressure, such a command is harder to execute when Jordan Staal is on your heels along the end boards.
Yes, the Bruins may want to just avert their eyes from anything related to those three disheartening losses to Carolina earlier this season.
"I think you've gotta burn the tape,” Patrice Bergeron said following a 7-1 loss to Carolina back in January.
But after reviewing some of the game film, there are plenty of lessons to take away from those drubbings in terms of how not to fall into Carolina’s orchestrated chaos in the O-zone.
Brace yourself for a suffocating forecheck
The Hurricanes thrive off of operating at a high pace, but they’re also not necessarily a rush-heavy team like the Panthers or Blues.
Rather, they swarm in waves in the offensive zone: pressuring puck carriers, forcing turnovers and landing punches in the fracas that ensues as the opposing defense is treading water.
Boston’s game tape from its 7-1 loss to Carolina back in January was inundated with instances in which Carolina’s pressure put Boston on its heels and generated something out of nothing for a Canes squad with plenty of quick-strike capabilities.
Look no further than the sequence below.
At first glance, this seems to be a relatively harmless sequence, with Derek Stepan serving as the fly in the ointment while other Carolina skaters are in the midst of a line change. But that dogged pressure starts to create havoc, with Derek Forbort pushed back further into Boston’s zone.
The Hurricanes smell blood in the water.
Forbort’s hurried backhand feed goes into no-man’s land, the Canes scoop up the biscuit — bang, Stepan gives the Hurricanes a four-goal lead less than 17 minutes into the contest.
And while D-corps regulars further down on the depth chart such as Forbort, Brandon Carlo and Connor Clifton will need to keep their heads on a swivel and move the puck decisively when Carolina presses, even a Norris Trophy candidate in Charlie McAvoy fell victim to the Hurricanes’ pace in this beatdown.
Once again, what looked to be a harmless sequence quickly devolved into disaster for the Bruins earlier in the period. Even though Tuukka Rask deflected Jesperi Kotkaniemi’s initial low-danger shot, the Hurricanes’ bottom-six regular turns on the jets and recovers the puck from McAvoy against the end boards.
A familiar script begins to play out. Carolina, through pure effort, suddenly has the puck in Grade-A ice, and the Bruins are scrambling to readjust in their own zone. Andrei Svechnikov’s subsequent shot is turned aside, but as both McAvoy and Matt Grzelcyk move to the front of the net, they completely forget about Kotkaniemi, who easily tucks the second-chance offering behind enemy lines for another tally.
Keep it clean
Of course, the easiest way to limit those defensive boo-boos and the amount of time spent sucking wind in your own zone is to, of course, break the puck out cleanly.
Again, easier said than done against this Carolina team. But Boston can seriously limit the number of opportunities that the Canes can generate by making simple feeds out of the defensive zone. Because if a puck sails out into open ice or is outright intercepted by a Carolina skater, the opposition has the wheels to put you on your heels and burn you in a hurry.
Seth Jarvis’ tally from that January contest is an example of making things far too easy for a team like Carolina, with a lazy breakout feed from Urho Vaakanainen leading to a quality chance for the rookie forward.
Granted, the B’s were also doomed here by an indecisive Clifton, with Jarvis steamrolling past him like Shawn Kemp driving into the paint against an AAU player, but you can’t be handing gimmies like this to a team like Carolina. They’re far too deep and way too good.
“When we're playing well with good layers, managing the puck — force them to play in their own end and we have some high-end skill too that can separate if they're going to press up and play a lot of man to man, then our guys will be able to make some plays if they're strong on pucks, etc,’ Bruce Cassidy said. We've done that in the past against them — not this year. We certainly feel we're competitive with anybody in the Eastern Conference, and we've just got to find the right formula against them.”
Of course, the Bruins do have an added weapon to assist them on breakouts now in Lindholm. While the B’s deadline pickup has been as advertised in terms of his ability to log heavy minutes in a top-pairing role, his proficiency on the breakout and his overall transition game will be needed against Carolina.
(An example of Lindholm's ability to jumpstart offense down the other end of the ice due to his smooth transition game. He didn't get a helper on Pastrnak's tally, but did a lot of the initial heavy lifting.)
"It'll be important for us to be as clean as we possibly can,” Don Sweeney said. “Get out of our own (end), get through the neutral zone and try and to attack them. Again, they're stingy. They pressure the puck, and they've got some balanced scoring. So it's going to be a challenge. But Hampus has been a nice addition to our lineup, he logs a lot of minutes. And hopefully we're able to play well as a group. It's not going be on any one person to go out and tip the scales in one direction, but I think he's been a big compliment to our group."
Brace for active D
Carolina orchestrates a number of quality chances off of sowing chaos down low and turning over pucks, but the Canes also add another level of misery in the offensive zone thanks to a D corps that loves to activate off the blue line in order to wreak further havoc.
Be it jumping up into the play to recover a skittering puck, snapping off a wrister from the high slot or carrying the puck down low and setting up a clean look for a primed forward — the Hurricanes have plenty of blueliners ready and willing to handle the puck and jump into the play.
(A poor attempt from Forbort to slow Jarvis in the neutral zone doesn’t end well, leading to a brief odd-man rush for the Canes. Tony DeAngelo’s shot doesn’t beat Rask, but Carolina quickly recovers the puck on the forecheck, with Teuvo Teravainen evading Charlie Coyle and sending it back out to top D-man Jaccob Slavin. Seconds later, Slavin sends a crisp cross-slot feed back over to Teravainen, who one-times it past Forbort and Rask and into the Bruins’ net.)
In particular, Cassidy stressed the need for a strong forechecking structure down the other end of the ice. Carolina might not be a rush-heavy foe, but when they do get going in numbers, a lot of it starts with their blueliners taking an active role with the puck on their stick.
“They're quick in and out of their ends. So forecheck structure, running your routes is important and getting over the top,” Cassidy explained. “Our F3 is going to be really important. It always is, because their D comes (up the ice) so much. So you can live with the odd 4-on-3s as long as your forwards are coming back if you don't have success in the forecheck.
“But the 3-on-2s and the 4-on-2s catch up to you. So our third forward has to be disciplined and recognize when to live to fight another day and when to stay in on the battle. … if we can make it tough for them to get up and join — their numbers don't reflect that they're a great line rush team without the D being part of it. So we'll hopefully minimize that. They do great things on the forecheck, o-zone cycles, the D are involved. But if we can minimize their D getting involved, then we have a better chance to neutralize that part of their game.”
OTHER QUESTIONS THAT COULD DETERMINE BRUINS-CANES
When will Andersen return for Carolina?
Make no mistake about it.
If Carolina was ready to deploy a healthy Frederik Andersen — the same Andersen who posted a .990 save percentage in three outings against Boston, along with stopping 28 total goals above expected all year — the entire tone of this series would be very different.
Sure, Andersen has had his share of struggles in the postseason against Boston (although I’d chalk some of that up to Toronto’s Charmin-soft defense in front of him), but it’s tough to ignore just how stellar the Danish netminder has been this season for Carolina.
And even though Boston’s Game 1 starter in Linus Ullmark has been fantastic down the stretch (.945 save percentage in his last 12 appearances), the Bruins' goaltending situation is undoubtedly a wild card — given the inexperience of Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman, along with the fact that both B’s goalies are in uncharted waters as it pertains to workload.
(Ullmark’s previous career high for games played in a season was 37 back in 2018-19.)
But what looked to be a disadvantage for the B’s in this series when it comes to goaltending suddenly looks a lot more even these days, due in large part to the health of Andersen and the timeline for his return to Carolina’s net.
Hampered with a leg injury since the middle of April, Andersen skated on his own Sunday morning, but will not start Game 1 — with Carolina opting to roll with Antti Raanta or rookie Pyotr Kochetkov in net.
Even without Andersen, the Hurricanes still managed to go 6-0-0 to close out the regular season (a testament to their ability to suppress shots and carry play down the other end of the ice), but Carolina would still be a much better spot with their No. 1 goalie ready and able for Game 1.
Raanta might have posted a .912 save percentage and a 15-5-4 record this season for Carolina, but his postseason track record is a bit spotty — with the backup saddled with a .714 save percentage over two games during his last playoff appearance with Arizona back in 2020.
And even with Kochetkov’s 3-0-0 record, the rookie still posted a save percentage of .902 during those three appearances, and likely isn’t the first option as a youngster with just a cup of coffee up in the NHL ranks.
"I mean, Anderson was really good against us. We can't control who plays against us, obviously. But that's a factor,” Cassidy said of Carolina’s goalie situation. “Goalie (coach) Bob (Essensa) will go through the goalies he thinks are playing and does a little presentation on him. So we're expecting Raanta but we're not really sure. So we'll have a bit of a book on each guy. ... But at the end of the day, we've seen Andersen a lot over the years in Toronto and in Carolina.
We've seen a little bit of Raanta — the guy we haven't seen, only on video, is (Kochetkov). So he's a factor too. We went through it last year with Washington — they went through three goalies. So you're always prepared with some information. At the end of the day, if they're going through three goalies, maybe that's not a bad thing. It means we're scoring, hopefully, if it's not injury-related. At the end of the day, it shouldn't really change your approach a lot. It's traffic, it's second chances. It's getting to the good ice. ... It should be the same approach offensively.”
A strong start will be crucial for Boston in this series. Andersen may not be cleared for Game 1, but he could be back in the fold at some point later this week. As such, the B’s will be looking to land a couple of haymakers on Raanta/Kochetkov in the early going — putting the pressure on a Carolina team that will be looking for some relief from a banged-up Andersen.
And if Andersen is not 100% once he finally does get that green light (a scenario that Bruins fans are far too familiar with after last year’s playoff exit), the Hurricanes could be in deep trouble.
Can the Bruins' power play gain traction … against the top PK unit in the league?
After trudging through a brutal 0-for-39 drought on the power play in April, the B’s man advantage is at least entering the postseason with some momentum on their side, having buried three goals in their final two matches of the 82-game docket.
That’s all well and good. Now, they’ve just got to keep that momentum going …. against the top penalty-kill unit in the league.
Yikes.
As we noted throughout Boston’s power-play drought, the B’s simply have far too much talent on that top unit (Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak-Hall/DeBrusk-McAvoy) to be completely neutralized for an extended stretch.
That being said, a hyper-aggressive PK like Carolina’s is the type of scheme that has given Boston fits this season, with the Hurricanes pouncing on puck carriers and giving them little time and space to handle the biscuit.
Cassidy also noted that Carolina tends to stack the blue line and make things difficult for teams looking for a clean entry into the offensive zone, which could open the door for a costly turnover and a counter-rush down the other end of the ice.
Now, while this could be a major mismatch on paper, the Bruins have actually had some success against Carolina and that aggressive “power kill” during previous playoff meetings.
The Canes boasted a top-10 ranked penalty kill back in 2018-19, but the Bruins shredded that Carolina PK during the 2019 Eastern Conference Final — cashing in on seven of their 15 chances on the man advantage during that four-game sweep.
The following season, Carolina’s PK was the fourth-ranked unit in the NHL. And once again, Boston got the better of the Canes’ shorthanded crew up in the Toronto bubble, going 5-for-19 on the power play.
For Cassidy, the key to countering Carolina’s PK comes down to quick movement and establishing position at the net front. Even though the Canes have plenty of success when it comes to pressuring up high against an opposing power play, that also opens up plenty of Grade-A ice around the netminder, with Taylor Hall or perhaps even Jake DeBrusk licking their chops at the real estate available to them if Boston is able to get past that first layer in the offensive zone.
It should also be worth noting that Carolina is also not exactly humming along on the power play either — cashing in on just three of its last 37 bids on the man advantage.
Prediction
This Carolina Hurricanes team is good. Real good. They’re far better than the squad that Boston obliterated in 2019, and an improvement over the club that Boston handled in five games in 2020.
But this Bruins team is also very different these days, especially when you compare this current group to the one that was decimated by Carolina earlier this season.
While goaltending and special teams both stand as obvious X-factors, Boston’s balanced scoring output since Cassidy’s mid-year switcheroo could also present some major issues for Brind'Amour when it comes to getting the matchups needed to best the B's.
Sebastian Aho and his line might be the most potent forward trio for Carolina, but the star pivot has labored in the past when matched up against Patrice Bergeron (who is in the midst of an absurd defensive season, for those keeping track).
In Boston’s last two meetings against Carolina in the postseason, Bergeron and Aho have met head-to-head for 46:49 of 5v5 ice time, with Boston holding a 29-11 edge in shots on goal and a 2-0 edge in goals scored. Fair to say, Boston will take that every time these two lines go at it.
In order to free up Aho and get him away from Bergeron and Co., the Hurricanes have often opted to stick their shutdown line in Jordan Staal, Nino Niederreiter and Jesper Fast on 37+63, with some pretty encouraging results.
Of course, that strategy was a lot easier to carry out when Boston rolled with a top-heavy forward corps anchored by a Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak line. While the Staal line could still be tasked with keeping Marchand-Bergeron-DeBrusk in check, the Hurricanes might have a few more fires to put out if both Erik Haula and Charlie Coyle’s line can start landing punches as well — something that both middle-six units did with regularity over the second half of the season.
There are a lot of key factors still up in the air with this series — ones that likely won’t be answered until puck drop and beyond (namely, Ullmark’s postseason fortitude and Andersen’s health).
But if the Bruins’ secondary scoring (especially Haula’s line) can contribute and Boston’s defensive structure learns from those mistakes back in January/February, this team can once again make life miserable for a very deep Carolina roster.
Bruins in six.
Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, HockeyViz and JFreshHockey.