In a perfect world, the Red Sox would be able to re-sign and extend a number of their own players heading for free agency this fall -- Xander Bogaerts (opt-out), Nate Eovaldi, Kike Hernandez, and perhaps even J.D. Martinez.
However, history -- and some common sense -- suggests that's not likely, or perhaps even advisable. As players age into their 30s, they become far less dependable investments with the risk of becoming liabilities over the course of a long-term contract.
Certainly, most Red Sox fans would advocate for keeping Bogaerts and Eovaldi. Time will tell.
But even if the Sox determine that they can't/won't get extensions done, there are ways to get some return for the players should they depart and sign elsewhere. But what happens with a seemingly unrelated collective bargaining issue over the next few months could influence that return.
When Major League Baseball owners and the Players Association finally reached an agreement on a new collective bargaining agreement back in early March, it helped save a 162-game season and got baseball out of the boardroom and back on the field. For that, everyone was happy. But in their haste to get a deal done and get players into spring training camps in time to start the season just a week later than originally scheduled, a few cans were kicked down the road, with the idea that they would be settled in the near future.
MLB owners have, for a number of years, wanted to institute an international draft. For decades, only players from North America (the U.S., Canada, Mexico and Puerto Rico) have been subject to the first-year player draft. Others, including those in the baseball hotbeds of the Caribbean and Latin American, have been excluded from the draft, and at 16, are eligible to sign with MLB teams as international free agents.
Some organizations are split on the merits of an international draft. A number of executives would welcome anything that makes the process more transparent and eliminates the corruption that currently exists. Others, however, lament that teams would lose the advantage of years of "boots on the ground,'' in which scouts develop and maintain relationships in the Caribbean and Latin America, and contend that this leveling of the field is unfair.
The relative merits of an international draft can, however, be debated another day.
For now, there's a zero-sum element that comes with the ongoing negotiations between the union and MLB, and that's where the Red Sox come in.
Under an agreement that was reached when the new CBA was signed, the two sides have until July 25 to determine whether an international draft will be adopted. If it is, it won't go into effect until 2023, at the earliest. If it is adopted, MLB will do away with the qualifying offer that is currently part of the free agent process. (Under this system, teams may present their own free agents with a qualifying offer. If such an offer is rejected and the free agent signs elsewhere, the original team is awarded a draft pick as compensation.)
If, on the other hand, the Players Association rejects the adoption of an international draft, the qualifying offer will remain part of free agency.
So, how does this impact the Red Sox?
Simple. Perhaps more than any other team, the Red Sox have a number of star players eligible for free agency after the current season.
If the current system remains in place, the Red Sox would almost certainly present qualifying offers to Bogaerts and Eovaldi. Martinez could go either way. It's possible, though currently unlikely, that they could also do so with Hernandez, who has begun the season slowly, but could still rebound and replicate the performance he had in the second half of last season and again in October when he was arguably the team's most dynamic player.
Teams must, of course, be prepared that the players in question could accept the offers, thereby tying them to the team for an additional year. The amount of the qualifying offer hasn't been determined -- logically enough, since there's no guarantee it will exist after July 25 -- but should one be necessary, it will probably be in the neighborhood of $18-19 million. (The amount represents the mean salary of the game's top 125 highest-paid players).
Bogaerts and Eovaldi would almost certainly reject such an offer, since their value will be far greater on the open market, where they could command a higher AAV (average annual value) and do for multiple years. Martinez might be a tougher call, since as a DH in his mid-30s, Martinez wouldn't be guaranteed to command that much. On the other hand, the Sox might be OK with bringing him back on a one-year deal, at a slight reduction in salary. Martinez is making $19.375 million this year.
It's possible then, that the Red Sox could earn themselves a draft pick bonanza if the current system remains in place, garnering a number of high bonus picks for the 2023 draft, that could allow them to stockpile as many as four of the first 70 or so picks in that draft. Surely, they would be salivating over such a scenario.
Not surprisingly, Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom declined to comment on the matter, pointing out that it would be inappropriate to weight in on an issue that is being collectively bargained.
And it's worth noting that, according to one baseball executive, the expectation is that, even if the international draft is adopted, some form of compensation would be put in place for teams that lost top free agents. The difference, the executive noted, is that it would no longer be direct compensation.
And of course, nothing is set in stone.
Under the current system, say Bogaerts opts out and the Sox present him with a QO and he then signed with another team. That team would then -- based on its market size, whether it received revenue sharing and had exceeded any of the CBT thresholds and other factors -- lose a high pick. The Red Sox, in turn, would be awarded an extra pick after either the first or second round, again depending on a number of variables.
The supposition by many around the game is that compensation could still be in place for the team losing a player, though the signing team might not have to forfeit a pick. However, none of that is guaranteed.
The reverse is also true -- for the Red Sox and other teams. Let's imagine that Bogaerts opts out and signs elsewhere, and the Red Sox are happy to have Trevor Story remain at second, and target another free agent shortstop over Bogaerts. The Sox could then sign someone like Trea Turner -- slightly younger, significantly better defensively, and with plus-plus speed as part of his skill set. The Sox could then sign Turner to a mammoth contract and not lose any picks as a cost, though the Dodgers, Turner's current team, would still be gifted with compensation picks.
The impact the international draft could have may take years to determine. But either way, its adoption or rejection this July will have a more immediate effect this winter -- and for the Red Sox, potentially, given their number of free agents, more than most.
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When the Sox traded Hunter Renfroe to the Milwaukee Brewers for Jackie Bradley Jr. and two prospects last Dec. 1, many were puzzled.
Why would the Sox give up Renfroe -- who blasted 31 homers and led all outfielders in assists -- to bring back Bradley, who was quite literally, the worst hitter in MLB in 2021?
The answer could be found with those two prospects -- Alex Binelas and David Hamilton. The Red Sox saw the deal as a way to add two potentially elite young players to their system.
The first month of the 2022 season suggests their projections could be accurate.
"With both guys,'' said Bloom, "a lot of what we're seeing is exactly what we hoped to see and we're very appreciative that they got out of the gate as well as they did and made us look smart.''
Hamilton, playing for Double A Portland, is slashing .313/.408/.500 after 17 games with 13 steals in 15 attempts. He's also scored nine runs and hit three homers.
"David has been exactly that spark plug at the top of the lineup that we hoped to see,'' said Bloom. "He, with our hitting coordinators, was able to make an adjustment in spring training that actually has enabled him to show a little more power that we were expecting. They were able to do some good work there. He's driven the ball better than I think we hoped. Power is not likely to be his calling card. But everybody in the big leagues can drive the baseball to some degree and the more you can do it, the more it opens up different things for you offensively, the more productive you can be,
"It's been really eye-opening, just to see that come to fruition. And you know that anytime someone is as athletic and twitchy as he is, they have a chance to make the ball jump and he's been able to do that more than was expected of him.''
Still, what separates Hamilton from most others is his elite speed. As a sophomore at the University of Texas, he stole 31 bases -- the most by a Longhorn in 16 years - and had 11 bunt singles and six triples.
"You can find speed, but it's hard to find speed that's really functional on baseball field,'' said Bloom. "In today's game, the odds and costs and benefits are so well understood, that unless your speed really plays in ways that help a team win, most clubs aren't going to want you to use it. So you have to show that you can use it in a way that can help your team win. He's been able to do that. One of the things that drew us to him was that speed, that athleticism. And finding it an up-the-middle (defensively), left-handed hitting package, there aren't that many of those guys. So when you have a chance to go grab one, it opens up a lot of good possibilities.''
Hamilton is currently playing shortstop, but could conceivably be tried elsewhere, thanks to his athleticism.
"One of the things with guys who play short is, you want to have as many of those as you can,'' Bloom said, "because a lot of big leaguers were once shortstop. With a guy like that, who has his athleticism, you bet strongly that he's going to end up up the middle, somewhere. He has the ability to play shortstop, for sure. Obviously, a lot of what happens down the road is dependent not just on his performance, but also opportunity and what makes the club fit best together. But he's an up-the-middle athlete, for sure.''
Binelas, a third-round pick last summer, is also starting strong at High A Greenville, with a line of .267/.392/.600 to go with six homers and 14 RBI in his first 16 games.
"With Alex,'' said Bloom, "we've seen the power we expected to see, and also a really advanced approach. He knows what he's trying to do up there and he has the power to drive the ball out to any part of the ballpark and that's been great to see.''
Binelas has some swing-and-miss to his game, but has been making more regular contact and becoming more discerning at the plate.
"That's usually the 'X' factor for guys like this,'' said Bloom. "Can they make enough quality contact to get to the massive power that they have. He's really made strides in that area. Watching him in his draft year, he was coming off a lot of interruptions due to COVID and then some early-season injuries and it took him a while to get going. And he started to slow better as the year went on and then had a really good pro debut, with some swing-and-miss in there.
"But he showed us some aptitude and that as he got rolling, he was able to improve and it's been nice to see him carry that into this year. Hopefully, that continues. We're not expecting that this is guy is going to be a pure contact hitter. It's about swinging at the right pitches and making quality contact, because that will allow the rest of his offensive package to play.''
Binelas continues to work at third base, though some evaluators believe he won't stay there. It's more likely he ends up either across the diamond at first, or perhaps left field.
