Well, we were really close, to not only getting LB Devin Lloyd but also landing the previous mock with a trade back to the Chiefs and selection of S Dax Hill. But Bill Belichick said, not so fast my friend. If nothing else, the Patriots keep it interesting.
Mock Draft Analysis
Tough night for the final mock on actual players landing with the correct teams. But the number of players I hit in the first round was pretty solid 26 out 32. For accountability purposes, here’s where I missed:
- Patriots: iOL Cole Strange. This one is obvious and more thoughts below
- Titans: WR Treylon Burks. I had Burks rated lower, but he has a similar body type to A.J. Brown and they figure he’ll be Brown’s replacement after the trade to Philly.
- Packers: LB Quay Walker. Not a huge surprise given his late rise and athletic makeup. I just didn’t see him going ahead of Devin Lloyd and teammate Nakobe Dean.
- Cowboys: OL Tyler Smith. I flagged this one yesterday and had the Cowboys picking a big guard. So not a total swing and miss.
- Chiefs: DE George Karlaftis: I had KC taking the right position, wrong player. I had David Ojabo mocked to them as surprise pick.
- Vikings: S Lewis Cine. With the 32nd pick, I had the Lions picking fellow S Jaquon Brisker because I felt he fit their program really well. But called out Lewis Cine as an option. Lions traded the pick to go up and get WR Jameson Williams at 12.
Drafts I liked:
- I think the Giants got better with two top draft talents DE Kayvon Thibodeaux (Oregon) and OT Evan Neal (Alabama).
- I respect Houston Texas GM, Nick Caserio for going with CB Derek Stingley Jr. over Sauce Gardner. It’s not without risk, but Stingley Jr. could be the best player in the whole draft. That’s believing in your board.
- The Baltimore Ravens' draft. Every year I say, “Man, they got some good players”. In this case, S Kyle Hamilton (Notre Dame) and OC Tyler Linderbaum (Iowa) are two of the safest picks in the draft. Not to mention, did you have the same reaction I did to their trade Marquise Brown trade with Arizona?! Theft.
- The Jets have had a good offseason and did well for themselves with 3 good players. I can’t stand the Jets, so I look forward to watching how they mess those guys up.
- The trades. The first round always drags on but last night the broadcast couldn’t keep up with the trades and picks. It makes things more interesting, and teams (and fans) can’t get comfortable.
- Philly being aggressive to jump Baltimore to go get DT Jordan Davis and get WR A.J. Brown. GM Howie Roseman is always looking to deal.
Things I didn’t love:
- The Jags jumping the Pats to pick LB Devin Lloyd. Painful and he would have looked good in the red, white and blue Patriots uniform.
- Arizona trading the 23rd pick for Marquise Brown. I am sure the logic is that his speed opens avenues for DeAndre Hopkins, but I thought it was an overpay.
- Jets picking WR Garrett Wilson. I imagine they plan to play him outside versus the slot. But I thought his most dangerous role would have been from the slot, working to get him free release and utilizing his separation and acceleration skills. That team already has WR Braxton Berrios and WR Elijah Moore (drafted last year).
- QB Kenny Pickett to the Steelers. I do love that he’s sticking in his hometown and as Greg noted last night, they didn’t make the same mistake they made with fellow Pitt Panther, Dan Marino. But this is where his hand-size could actually matter. Hand size is an issue in inclement weather and with general grip strength / protecting the football. The NFL season goes 2 months longer than the college season and he’s playing in a division is known for weather. Every one of the AFC North stadiums is close to a body of water which creates more wind.
- I didn’t chase the reports of Travon Walker to Jags and felt the NFL would overreact and overvalue QBs. Both had a waterfall effect on the whole draft. Right analysis on the players, wrong logic on the picks.
Patriots thoughts
Let’s start with the irrational. As a Patriots fan, I’ve been so conditioned to think they are a step ahead and slightly smarter than the rest of the league. That’s because, frankly, they have been. Their track record speaks for itself and so many questionable moves have been answered as a “success” (Logan Mankins, Devin McCourty, Kyle Dugger). But a big part of that “math” with the Patriots is value. Because they are a “step ahead” or “seeing around corners” they squeeze more value out of their lineup and decisions than the next team.
That’s what felt frustrating about the Cole Strange pick. Not the player, more on him below, but on the decision. The value is the next round. It’s in yet another trade back or grabbing a different player that definitely wouldn’t be there in Round 2. A guy like S Dax Hill, NT Travis Jones, or even CB Andrew Booth Jr. at significant positions of need.
Now, the rational part of me subscribes to the “go get your guy”. If you have conviction, he’s the next Logan Mankins, who cares, make the pick. Take the nasty on-field mentality and production to protect Mac Jones to the bank. An investment in supporting and keeping your young, franchise QB upright is good business. And, they have much more information than us. They obviously felt there was a chance the guy wouldn’t get to pick number 54.
While it’s a pick for need, I do respect them trusting their board. I don’t think all teams do that, especially in the first round when they know the pick will be panned. I also really trust them picking this position.
But for today it doesn’t really matter. They’ll get judged on Cole Strange’s performance and the collective team results. It’s all about the scoreboard.
Cole Strange Analysis
Just was we promised, I have a write-up on virtually anyone they would pick. Here’s what I posted on BSJ and Twitter last night.
“Started 44 games at college, primarily at guard but he'll be a guard or center at the next level. Played very well against higher competition when given the opportunity and he was competitive at the Senior Bowl. Has good striking ability, good quickness, and not afraid to mix it up. Probably best in a zone scheme where he's able to establish positioning and sustain with movement. He has the frame to put on more weight at the next level. He was reportedly a good interview at Combine.”
After some more research I added these points:
- Smart kid, graduated (3.71) and getting masters in engineering
- Word is that he's tough, aggressive, old-school player who will put ball first
- Athletically he tested off the charts for iOL
- Team captain
- All-conference player (you'd hope at that level)
- Can, and needs to, add weight at the next level. He looks leaner in person
- He'll be 24 at the start of next season
- He's a former DE, which speaks to his athleticism, and moved to offensive line early in college. Similar to another prospect, Dylan Parham from Memphis
- Jim Nagy, who's a former Patriots scout said: "Great looking, trim, god athlete. He's physical. Really strong hands. A really tenacious player." Keep in mind, Nagy runs the Senior Bowl and rightfully promotes the players, but he thought he was a Patriots fit.
Day 2 Targets
We’ve done a lot of writing on position targets by Round:
All our draft coverage — going back to Kevin's weekly in-season coverage — right here.
Here are the unit evaluations:
Here are my top targets for tonight by position:
- CB: Roger McCreary (Auburn), Marcus Jones (Houston), Joshua Williams, (Fayetteville St)
- OLB: David Ojabo (Michigan), Drake Jackson (USC), Darrian Beavers (Cincinnati), Kingsley Enagbare (South Carolina)
- WR: John Metchie (Alabama), Wan’Dale Robinson (Kentucky), Skyy Moore (Western Michigan) WR Khalil Shakir (Boise State)
- LB: Nakobe Dean (Georgia), Chad Muma (Wyoming) Troy Anderson (Montana St) Leo Channel (Wisconsin)
- OT: Nicholas Petit-Frere (Ohio State), Abe Lucas (Washington State), Max Mitchell (Louisiana)
- DL: DeMarvin Leal (Texas A&M), Phidarian Mathis (Alabama), Neil Farrell Jr. (LSU)
- S: Alontae Taylor (Tennessee), Kerby Joseph (Illinois), Jaquan Brisker (Penn St)
*Assuming some top targets are gone like NT Travis Jones (UConn), Andrew Booth, Jr. etc.