Some final thoughts from myself and Kevin Field.
First, a reminder you can find all our draft coverage — going back to Kevin's weekly in-season coverage — right here.
Here are the unit evaluations:
We will be posting a Live File soon where you can get some last-minute questions in. Both Kevin and I will be in there at various points.
Here are some of my parting thoughts on this draft, starting with a dream-like scenario for some, with a possible receiver double-dip:
- It's true the Patriots basically have, in theory, a full house in terms of receivers for this season. But they have no one of substance signed beyond 2023. Bill Belichick has been terrible at receiver and mostly avoids them, but Tom Brady is gone and he's been replaced by a guy in Mac Jones who is very young in the scheme. The Patriots also now have coaches who are relative neophytes in the offensive scheme (as opposed to Mensa candidate Josh McDaniels). We've seen the Patriots double-dip at certain positions of need in the past. I'm not a #weaponz guy, but if there was ever a time for Belichick to turn in two WR cards early in a draft, this would be the one — especially if Jameson Williams is on the clock at 21.
- The Patriots never have access to a guy like that. Who cares if you have to wait, basically, another season for Williams to be at his best? Are the Patriots really going to win the Super Bowl this year? So this is all about 2023 to me. If Williams is there, I'm taking him, and then I think hard about taking John Metchie in the second round. Williams is your outside big-play guy. Metchie is a very good inside receiver. They both have some knowledge of Jones, and can at least speak the same language. If not Metchie, take a CB, NT, LB in Round 2, and then go get your No. 1-rated slot receiver (Jahan Dotson, Khalil Shakir, Wan'Dale Robinson, Calvin Austin, Skyy Moore, Bo Melton) in the third to give Jones and these green coaches their future WR starters set right now and start to build a real modern offense.
- Nelson Agholor, Jakobi Meyers and N'Keal Harry are all free agents after this season. Draft two WRs and this is your WR depth chart in 2023:
Jameson Williams
DeVante Parker
John Metchie/later slot
Kendrick Bourne
2023 draft pick/budget free agent/Meyers
Sign me up. Overnight, the Patriots suddenly have some real weaponry that could win some AFC East/AFC shootouts.
- If someone slides and rebuilding trade-down teams are offering a discount, keep an eye on the Texans' pick at 13 where the Patriots could move up via old friend Nick Caserio. My other dream: Patriots jump the Ravens for NT Jordan Davis. Now you have a real defensive front, instead of that Swiss cheese they were serving the past three years. No, I don't think it's likely. Devin Lloyd, Williams, Charles Cross, Trevor Penning would be other trade-up candidates.
- A 2023 starting left tackle is still a huge, huge hole. The Patriots usually try hard to address those.
- Yes, the Patriots could very well draft a punter and boot the now-expensive Jake Bailey. No, I don't really care all that much. Someone will punt for the Patriots in 2023, and the chances are they'll do the job.
- If you think Bill Belichick feels some sort of pressure about the draft related to Robert Kraft, you haven't been watching this team the past 22 years and just love drama for one reason or another.
- People just love to overanalyze this team and coach ... Belichick's "more collaborative effort" depends solely on his mood and how he feels about the intel from his college friends. For all the over-analysis of the 2021 draft, Belichick drafted two players from Alabama (Nick Saban), two others from the same college (Oklahoma) and another Michigan player. All but Cam McGrone (small linebacker the exact same size coming out as Elandon Roberts six years earlier) were straight out of their prototypes, and they drafted three players with some concerns (injury or otherwise) that dropped them on the board. Did the Patriots really do anything different in 2021, or did they just pick better players — which Belichick usually does in cycles coming off rough seasons?
- I don't really care, and have never really cared, who the Patriots pick. They study this all year and have really smart people. I just can't wait to have the 2022 Patriots on a practice field so then we can start to see what's what. Everyone will know the scoreboard on this draft in three years.
From Kevin Field:
The NFL Draft is finally here! For those that love it, it’s the culmination of a long process. For those that are tired of it, with all the mock drafts and different opinions, finally something happens. Either way, I look at it as the official start of the 2022 Patriots season. That is exciting.
- The draft is completely unpredictable, especially in a year like this without a cloudy quarterback situation, and that’s why the NFL has done a good job making this a must-watch TV event. The Panthers, Falcons, Giants, Jets will be classic trade-back candidates. Saints, Chiefs, Chargers, are three teams I would look at to come up. I’ve believed from the beginning, and still believe, it’s more likely the Patriots trade back then make the selection at 21. I felt the opposite last year.
- I think it might be difficult for the Patriots to trade back. They won’t be the only team trying to do that and it will require someone to want to come up for a player at their slot. It will be interesting how they think about valuing that pick vs. acquiring more future capital.
- FWIW, I prefer them to trade down, and I think the ideal scenario is 4 or 5 picks in the top 100 (right now they have 3).
- Teams to watch ahead of the Patriots. The Ravens and Chargers. Baltimore is a well-run, strong drafting organization that targets similar programs as New England. The Chargers also have some primary needs that are similar to the Patriots (NT, OT, WR, CB). I expect both of those teams to take a target off the board for the Patriots.
- Here’s who I want in Round 1: LB Devin Lloyd, LT Trevor Penning, DB Dax Hill, CB Kaiir Elam, CB Trent McDuffie, and WR Garrett Wilson. If they pick Andrew Booth Jr., then I’ll trust them and be happy it helps a position they really need. I like the guards but would prefer a trade back if they went that route. A guy to watch, OT Tyler Smith from Tulsa. Same with Michigan DE David Ojabo. Sneaky potential to land in the top 35 picks.
- Here’s who I want if they trade up: CB Derek Stingley Jr., S Kyle Hamilton, DE Jermaine Johnson II, OT Charles Cross, and NT Jordan Davis.
- Since 2019 the Patriots have traded down 3 times and traded up 9 times. I know the belief is that they always prefer to go back but what that really means is they go get their guy. If they go back in Round 1, a part of the logic is to gain more draft capital which will allow them flexibility to jump teams and get their key targets later.
- Rounds 2-4 are the sweet spot if you’re like most fans and want the Patriots to draft a wideout. I always support a late-round flier at that position if they have the picks (same concept with offensive line and defensive backs). Good depth is always worthwhile.
- We’ve talked a lot about the slot position because of its need but one outside WR I continue to like as a Day 3 target, Danny Gray from SMU. He was at the Senior Bowl (and was impressive in the first few reps before tweaking a muscle). I am sure they got a chance to interview him there.
- While I’ve been consistent about QBs going early to the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons, if I am those GMs I am desperately trying to trade back and still grab a QB. Look for someone to come up for a tackle, defensive back, or one of the edge players.
- I think at least three QBs go in Round 1. But I’d be surprised if it gets to five, even with the extra contract year of team control. Just not a good enough class but every QB that gets selected is good for the Patriots, especially if teams are moving around the board to get them. I know there’s late buzz that the QBs will drop until later in Round 1 and my mock had the opposite. We’ll see when the bullets start flying but I think teams panic around QBs.
- QB rankings: I really have them in two tiers. Kenny Pickett from Pitt (more pro-ready) and Matt Corral from Ole Miss (more upside). Then it’s Malik Willis from Liberty (highest upside), Sam Howell from UNC (Baker Mayfield without the commercials), and Desmond Ridder from Cincinnati (great intangibles and athleticism but accuracy is a real issue).
- One guy I called out in the LB preview, 3rd round, was Damone Clark from LSU. At the Combine, tests showed that he needed spinal fusion surgery. He’s now Day 3 pick as he’ll need to redshirt next season. Patriots may look at a late-round pick as valuable and give them flexibility (not all rookies will make the roster) or he may be off their board for medical concerns.
- One guy I didn’t mention in the RB write-up that I like is Tyler Alleghier from BYU. Started his career as a LB walk-on and developed. Physical runner that gets what is blocked and his head coach said, “an overachiever in an NFL RB’s body.”
- I think I am higher on DeMarvin Leal from Texas A&M than most. Likely because he had a poor pre-draft process. Oddly enough, all the Aggie prospects struggled.
- Some thoughts on potential top pick, DE Travon Walker from Georgia. I covered him during the season and here’s what I wrote the first time: Travon Walker (DE) #44: Great size make-up and versatile along the line for the Bulldogs. He can win with quickness against guards and when he's on the edge he isn't a complete liability dropping into coverage. His best position is on the edge, but he'll be scheme versatile at the next level. Walker could be a strong-side DE that has a very productive career. He’s rising up draft boards.” That’s obviously held true, and I would love his make-up for the Patriots at 21 (or even higher), but I personally don’t think it makes sense to pick him #1 overall. I think it speaks more to the uncertainty of this class than it does Travon Walker the player. He has 9.5 career sacks and while the potential is there with Walker, with a top pick I want them to be a gamebreaker that forces an offense to game plan around. Walker will be a plus run defender to start his career and will need development. Could he get there? Sure. Should he be a top 10 pick? Sure. Should he be 1 overall? Not if I was turning in the card.
- I’ll have a write-up on almost every player that will be picked. Anyone that the Patriots pick I’ll comment here and via Twitter (@onFIELDaccess).
- As of this moment, stranded in Spain with COVID-19, I am still a little unclear how I am going to watch it on TV. But either way, I’ll be live commenting on the BSJ live file with Greg. Looking forward to it!