NFL Notebook: Patriots mock draft - New England ticks off needs starting with OT, WR

Well, might as well jump into the mock draft pool as we start draft week.

A couple of things to keep in mind:

- Went fairly heavy for need, with offensive tackle, cornerback, nose tackle, another edge option and speed at linebacker high on my list. As I discussed before, I don't think the Patriots have a ton of needs after their selective adding this offseason, but there are a few key spots to address.

- I didn't make any trades, and I expect the Patriots to make a few in order to accumulate picks, likely starting at 21 with a trade down. The Patriots have 20 open roster spots before jettisoning anyone (cough, N'Keal Harry). Figure at least 10 draft picks (they have eight right now), and 10 undrafted free agents.

We'll give you our picks, why, and list other players considered:

FIRST ROUND

21. Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa.

The Steelers ticked me off, taking NT Jordan Davis right in front of me. There just isn't enough depth with possible left tackle starters in this draft and, with Isaiah Wynn underwhelming and in his final year, I wasn't going to risk missing on a potential starter — perhaps as soon as this year (trading Wynn would save the team $10 million). Even if Wynn sticks this year and is the LT, Penning is a dominating run blocker and can start at LG, or RT if Trent Brown goes on the shelf again. Penning is tough and reminds me a lot of Nate Solder in terms of his athletic potential and instant run-blocking proficiency. 

Others considered:

• CB Andrew Booth, Clemson: Thought long and hard about this one, but thought Bill Belichick would feel he could get one later. Same with Dax Hill.
• OT Tyler Smith, Tulsa: Definite LT potential but too raw. Penning has higher floor.
• OG Zion Johnson, BC: Almost too good to pass up.

SECOND ROUND

54. John Metchie, WR, Alabama

The Patriots don't need to take a receiver and Belichick seems allergic to these "WR-heavy" drafts, almost on purpose. But while this is a little early for a receiver who is at best a No. 2, I didn't want to wait and miss on a guy that Mac Jones already has great chemistry with. Get Jones his type of guy and be done with it. They don't need him immediately — and he's coming back from an injury — but he would instantly be the only receiver signed beyond 2023. 

Others considered:

• LB Leo Chenal, Wisconsin: Tremendous athletic ability and player but I just don't think the Patriots view it as a pressing need.
• DE DeMarvin Leal, Texas A&M: Talented player but the Patriots have plenty of firepower as a 3-4 DE after hitting on Christian Barmore. 
• ED Josh Pascal, Kentucky: A bigger edge, kind of like Trey Flowers, but I bet I could get a similar player later, and I did.
• DE Logan Hall, Houston: Same player as Barmore.
• DE Perrion Winfrey, Oklahoma: Group him with Leal, Pascal and Hall ... good to have more, but with Deatrich Wise not going anywhere, so where are they going to play?
• LB Chad Muma, Wyoming: Would have been thrilled with Chenal or Muma, but not a pressing need and a little early.

THIRD ROUND

85. Jalyn Armour-Davis, CB, Alabama

Hey, big shock — back to back 'Bama picks. This is a guy I wanted. Bit of an injury history and just a one-year starter, but he has all the tools at 6-1, 197 pounds and 4.39 seconds in the 40. But he's been trained by Saban and is really underrated. Would give the Patriots a real starting option. Long player and knows how to play with his hands.

Others considered:

• WRs Wan'Dale Robinson, Kentucky; Khalil Shakir, Boise State: Definitely thought about going with one of these impressive slots, but that would be too much at WR for Belichick.
• CB Marcus Jones, Houston: Small and a slot, but damn good. Patriots really like Myles Bryant and he's similar size.
• LB Darrian Beavers, Cincinnati: Patriots' type of guy at 6-4 and 240, but not enough wheels for third round.

FOURTH ROUND

127. Neil Farrell Jr., NT, LSU

Probably my most controversial pick because this is a little high, but the possible nose tackles were running out fast and I wanted to grab a run stuffer. He's not perfect — Farrell is raw and a bit undisciplined — but he has strength and quickness and he's 6-4 and 330 pounds — an inch taller and 20 pounds heavier than Davon Godchaux. Let Farrell rotate and learn from Godchaux for a year, and he can man the nose full-time in 2023.

Others considered:

• WR Kyle Phillips, UCLA: Slot (I'm still looking and relying on UDFA).
• WR Bo Melton, Rutgers: Is Schiano Street open again?
• LB Damone Clark, LSU: Back surgery is a bit of a worry and too early for that risk.

FIFTH ROUND

158. Kyron Johnson, LB, Kansas

Played and listed as an edge in some places (he played edge for KU), he's 6-1 and 235 pounds but ran a 4.38 — so he's taller than Nakobe Dean and faster. He'll instantly be a special teams stud and gives the Patriots a speed option at linebacker if he develops. 

Others considered: 

• QB Bailey Zappe, Western Kentucky: I think Jarrett Stidham is back in the good graces, but I'm always looking for another QB to develop. Zappe would be a smaller (6-1) Jimmy Garoppolo.
• LB Mike Rose, Iowa State: He's 6-4, 245 and ran a 4.69 ... that's Belichick music playing. Remember Bill, you're going for speed now and Rose just doesn't have it. Will be tempting for Belichick.  
• RB Kyren Williams, Notre Dame; RB Tyler Badie, Missouri, RB Pierre Strong, South Dakota State: Any would fit as a third-down back. Strong has wheels.

170. Isaiah Thomas, Edge, Oklahoma

Sort of a poor man's Travon Walker at 6-5, 260 pounds. Can hold the edge and close on the passer. Might go earlier, but he would fill the Trey Flowers void and give the Patriots a bigger edge option opposite Matthew Judon in time.

Others considered:

• NT Otito Ogbonnia, UCLA: Would be the last nose tackle option, and he played for Chip Kelly.
• C Alec Lindstrom, BC: Solid G/C option.
• WR Dontario Drummond, Mississippi: Bit of a Deebo Samuel/Cordarrelle Patterson type. Tempting.

SIXTH ROUND

200. Matt Araiza, P, San Diego State

His nickname is, seriously, The Punt God, and he could go as high as the third round. Unreal leg. With Jake Bailey set to make over $4 million, it may be time to go with a cheaper and maybe better option.

210. Nick Ford, G/C, Utah

Wanted a new and better Ted Karras and at 6-5 and 315 with positional versatility all over the line, Ford has a chance to stick.

Others considered:

• OL Zach Thomas, San Diego State: Another option on the line, and I like the name.
• ED Christopher Thomas, Alabama: Not a great injury history, but he can really rush if he's healthy.

So, how did I do? Overall, I'm very happy. Sort of got everything I wanted, with Patriots-type players. Of course, there's zero chance of this happening, but are you not entertained?!

NICKEL PACKAGE

1. I know I'm a homer/stalker when it comes to Georgia nose tackle Jordan Davis, but I was happy to hear that two of my favorite analysts, Greg Cosell and Chris Simms, each raved about The Big Fella this week:

“Number one, at what he is, he’s phenomenal at it. He is phenomenal at playing in a 6x6 confined area. He’s got dominant, dominant, ridiculous strength. He can control a small area certainly as well as anybody in this draft and as well as anybody that we may have seen in a while. That’s strength. There is a difference between strength and power. Power would best be described as strength in motion. Jordan Davis is not powerful. He does not move people. He controls an area, but he does not move people. There is a big difference,” Cosell told the Ross Tucker Podcast.

I'm cool with that, considering what the Patriots do and what they lack. And I'm sure they are too. Davis has power, he just needs to be developed a bit there. He can get there. 

I hope Davis falls to the Patriots due to the modern game, just to see if Belichick would take him.

2. Reports indicate that the Giants are already trying to trade 2021 first-round pick, WR Kardarius Toney, who is a great slot fit for the Patriots. But if this NY Daily News report is any indication of how Joe Judge felt about Toney, I wouldn't hold my breath:

"There was some internal momentum for bailing on Toney during his tumultuous rookie season a year ago. His commitment came into question behind the scenes during his rookie year due to lack of playbook study, poor meeting behavior and frequent injuries."

3. I also wouldn't pine too much for Deebo Samuel. Not only will his new possible team have to give up a haul to get him, he wants a new contract and to be a receiver only. The Patriots already gave up a future third and appear to have topped out at paying DeVante Parker's contract at $6 million. The Patriots are going to give up more, and pay more, at a position they don't love to spend at anyway? That would be a surprise.

4. No one is sold there will be a run on QBs in the top half of the first round. From Bob McGinn's annual draft series, now at Go Long!

"This is the worst group I think I’ve ever done,” a scout with more than 20 years of NFL service said. “The only one that has a chance legitimately is (Kenny) Pickett. He’s the only starter. Everybody’s grasping for these guys.”

Another:

“I think they’re all bad,” an NFC evaluator said. “It’s such a crappy group. You look at them, is anyone sold on any of these guys?”

5. From the same series, about OT Trevor Penning — my first-round pick for the Patriots:

Penning had his share of rough moments during Senior Bowl week. He needs work, especially if asked to move from his three-year home at left tackle to the right tackle in the pros. What stood out in Mobile was the pushing and shoving Penning initiated in the padded practices.

“The defensive line in Mobile hated this guy,” an AFC exec said. “They just wanted to fight him. This guy is as mean as the day is long. He’s got the right demeanor.”

No punches were thrown. After each late shove, Penning would look or turn the other way, putting the defensive player in danger of being penalized if he retaliated too strenuously.

“It’s not like he’s proactively saying, ‘I’m going to maul this mf every chance I get,’” said one scout. “That’s not his intent. But he finishes basically to the same point on every play. As soon as he finishes it, it’s, like, ‘Alright, I’ll be back in a few minutes. Then I’ll line up and do this again.’ No malice with it until I guess he really gets pushed to the edge.”