For the past month, almost all of the free-agent focus around the Red Sox has centered around Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts. That's understandable, since both are established All-Stars. Homegrown players for the Sox, they've been part of the organization since their mid-teens, and the prospect of losing them to free agency -- Bogaerts, with an opt-out, after this current season; Devers after 2023 -- is, to say the least, troubling to Red Sox fans.
The Red Sox have maintained -- without any actual evidence to back up their words -- that they've prioritized getting both players signed to long-term extensions, for the purpose of having them finish their careers in Boston. To date, little progress has been made with either player.
Bogaerts was offered an additional year at $30 million, a sort of contractual afterthought that does nothing to improve his current deal -- already highly team-friendly -- over the next three seasons. As for Devers, there have been estimates that the two sides are $100 million or more apart in their negotiations, which are now on hold until after the season.
But Bogaerts and Devers aren't the only prospective free agents on the current Red Sox roster. Four other regulars are also headed in that direction.
A look at each, and the chances any reach agreement to extend their time in a Sox uniform past this October.
KIKE HERNANDEZ
AGE: Turns 31 in August.
CASE FOR: Once he got settled into A) center field and B) the leadoff spot last summer, Hernandez showed what a dynamic performer he can be. He has some pop, is an elite defender in center and while it's not reflected in his modest stolen base totals, runs well and is a good baserunner. It also helps that he's shown he can play in Boston, and in the postseason, too. He was unquestionably the Red Sox' best player last October.
CASE AGAINST: As impressive as he was for most of last season -- and all of last postseason -- Hernandez doesn't have a long track record. While with the Dodgers, he was more versatile than he was invaluable. Until last season, only twice had Hernandez exceeded 400 at-bats in a season, so there's still the feeling that the Sox might not know what they have in Hernandez. The onus will be on him to repeat his performance of a year ago.
SUMMATION: For now, the Red Sox lack an obvious replacement as a center fielder/offensive spark plug. Jarren Duran was supposed to be that guy, but his progress has stalled some at Triple-A. It may come down to how long a deal Hernandez seeking. The Sox might be wary of committing more than three or four years to a player already in his 30s, especially one who relies so much on athleticism. Typically, those kinds of players don't age well.
CHANCES OF STAYING: 50-50
CHRISTIAN VAZQUEZ
AGE: Turns 32 in August.
CASE FOR: Vazquez is generally regarded as a good defender, and possesses great arm strength, though in the current game, base stealing is not nearly the concern it once was. Vazquez has been a member of the organization longer than anyone on the current roster and has made it known he would like to finish his career here. He generally handles a staff well and enjoys a good relationship with the staff.
CASE AGAINST: Last season was a highly disappointing one offensively, as Vazquez had a .352 slugging percentage and a woeful 75 OPS+. Even if teams aren't expecting their catchers hit like Mike Piazza, Vazquez still underperformed with the bat, with 30 extra-base hits in nearly 500 plate appearances. It doesn't augur well that the Sox have a vigorous internal debate about whether to pick up Vazquez's relatively affordable option ($7.5 million) for this year and also engaged the Pittsburgh Pirates in trade discussions for Jacob Stallings, who was eventually dealt to Miami.
SUMMATION: As it stands, the Red Sox have no one to hand the catching reins to in 2023 and beyond. Connor Wong has yet to demonstrate that he's ready to become a No. 1 catcher at the big league level, and while Ronaldo Hernandez boasts power and a strong arm, he, too, has plenty more to prove. At this point, it would seem Vazquez's best bet would be a short -- perhaps one season -- extension from the Red Sox, buying them additional time to develop a replacement. And even that may depend on Vazquez having a bounce-back year offensively.
CHANCES OF STAYING: 25 percent
J.D. MARTINEZ
AGE: Turns 35 in August.
CASE FOR: Martinez has been one of the most consistent run producers in the game for the past seven seasons, 2020 excepted. Last year, he led the majors in doubles and finished with 99 RBI. He was second on the team in, among other categories, OPS, slugging percentage and total bases. In the final year of a five-year deal, he's generally been a bargain at $120 million, and his studious approach to hitting has paid dividends with other younger players on the roster. It's possible he could continue to be a productive DH for another few years at least.
CASE AGAINST: At 35, Martinez is unquestionably experiencing some decline at the plate. Name the statistical measurement -- OPS, OPS+, WAR -- and Martinez is likely trending in the wrong direction. These days, most teams prefer rotating players through the DH spot rather than committing a lot of money to one aging (and usually one-dimensional) slugger. Should they look to fill the role in-house, Bobby Dalbec could be a possibility if he can show some consistency while opening first base for Triston Casas.
SUMMATION: If the Red Sox had to do it all over again, they would almost certainly sign Martinez to the same deal they gave him in February of 2018. He's been both a good investment and a good teammate. But he would appear to be aging out of a role here, especially given what might be seeking financially.
CHANCES OF STAYING: 10 percent
NATHAN EOVALDI
AGE: Will turn 33 next February.
CASE FOR: Eovaldi has become a solid No. 2 starter while with the Red Sox and has been mostly healthy. Over the last two seasons combined, he's missed just three starts. With Chris Sale unavailable, Eovaldi has been the team's Opening Day starter each of the last three seasons. He's also emerged as a staff leader, setting an example for younger pitchers with his tireless work ethic. He's made great strides in improving his control since arriving in 2018 and last year, finished fourth in Cy Young Award balloting in the American League. It's possible that Eovaldi may be that rare player who is healthier -- and thus, more valuable -- in his 30s than he was in his 20s.
CASE AGAINST: We know ownership's hesitancy in committing to free agent starting pitchers in their 30s, and Eovaldi's past injury history - which includes two Tommy John procedures -- will surely ramp up that anxiety. The development of young pitchers from within -- Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock included, with the potential for more in the second half of the season -- could convince the Sox that they have less expensive options for their future rotations. The Red Sox are already on the hook for another $55 million for Sale in 2023-2024 and a $20 million club option for 2025; do they want to be paying more than $50 million a year for the next two-to-three seasons to two starting pitchers in their mid-30s?
SUMMATION: Eovaldi will get his money in free agency, especially if he remains healthy again for the rest of this year. Question is, will it come from the Red Sox? Again, a lot may be dependent on the length of the contract he's seeking. If would take another four-year deal, at slightly more money -- say, 4 x $20 million, the Red Sox might be tempted. Anything longer may price him out.
CHANCES OF STAYING: 40 percent
___________________________
The fallout over the absence of Don Orsillo at Tuesday's Jerry Remy tribute was unfortunate all around.
Here's what I've learned and concluded:
* The Red Sox did indeed invite Orsillo to take part. In fact, he was the first person they called, knowing the closeness of the relationship between Remy and his long-time play-by-play partner. It's somewhat unclear as to whether the San Diego Padres would have allowed Orsillo to take part. Either way, Orsillo was not in attendance.
* More than six years after the Red Sox moved on from Orsillo as their NESN play-by-play voice, a good deal of lingering resentment continues to exist as a result. Orsillo remains convinced that some in the organization have it out for him, and some with the Red Sox and NESN feel that Orsillo has been unable to get past his termination by the team in 2016.
* Even after all this time, Orsillo remains a hugely popular figure among the fan base, with most unwilling or unable to forgive the decision to not retain him. Like it or not, the Red Sox and NESN recognize this and should have made an exception and allowed Orsillo to provide a tribute via video. Doing so would have saved them a lot of bad public relations, inoculated them from charges of pettiness and, at the same time, enhanced the tribute by featuring the on-air partner with whom Remy was most closely associated.
* Despite the disappointment of not being included -- either in person, or through video -- Orsillo would have been better off saluting Remy with his thoughts on social media, while ignoring his unhappiness with the organization and network that once employed him. Focusing on the perceived slight, Orsillo inadvertently moved the focus off Remy himself, which was surely not his goal.
____________________
Miguel Cabrera became the 33rd member of the 3,000 Hit Club Saturday in Detroit.
In recent seasons, it's been proposed that perhaps we've seen the last of the 300-game winners on the mound. With pitch counts restricted, workloads monitored, 20-win seasons are now very, very rare. And if you're ''only'' winning, say, 17 a year, that means doing so for 17-18 seasons to get to 300.
But perhaps we're also entering an era where we won't see a lot of others gaining entrance to the 3000 Hit Club either.
Now that Cabrera has joined, the next closest on the active list is Robinson Cano, at 2,630. Does Cano, at age 39 and playing irregularly for the Mets, have another 370 hits left in him? Doubtful.
Then take a look at the names that follow. Yadier Molina, who has already announced plans to retire after this year, is at 2,116. Joey Votto is at 2,035 and is 38. Nelson Cruz needs more than 1,000 more hits and is already 41.
Perhaps the best bet, for now, is Jose Altuve, at 1,875 at age 32. Altuve could play another six or seven years, and should go over 2,000 before the end of this season. Could he average 165 hits for the next six years? Possibly. Freddie Freeman, also 32, is about 60 hits behind Altuve.
To give you an idea how hard reaching 3,000 is, consider that Mike Trout, at 30, and the best player in the game for the last seven or eight years, is not yet halfway there (1,428).
It helps that the National League has adapted the DH, offering twice the number of opportunities for veteran players to add to their totals without the grind of playing a position on a daily basis. Even factoring in that, it's going to be difficult for the club to grow considerably.
________________
When Terry Francona managed the Red Sox, I would chide him for his indifference to hockey. No matter how hard I tried, I couldn't convert him to the game.
Francona used to tell a story about his time with the Montreal Expos, for whom he played from 1981-85. One night, on an off-night for the Expos, Francona and teammate Tim Wallach decided to attend a Canadiens game at the old Montreal Forum.
At one point Montreal's Guy Lafleur gained control of the puck in his own zone, and began one of his patented length-of-the-rink rushes, his hair blown backwards, the Canadien fans coming out of their seats as he raced down the right wing. With the anticipating building in the Forum with each stride, Lafleur stick-handled around defenders and then fired a bullet past the opposing goalie.
By now, the Forum had erupted in deafening applause, which seemed to last for minutes in appreciation of Lafleur's artistry.
Francona, straining to be heard above the din, leaned toward Wallach and asked: "That do anything for you?''
Unimpressed, Wallach shook his head no.
"Me neither,'' acknowledged Francona.
Ironically, when Lafleur passed on Thursday, having lost his battle with lung cancer at age 70, it also happened to be Francona's 63rd birthday.
I texted Francona birthday wishes, but chided him that The Flower had likely never fully gotten over the disappointment of not turning him into a hockey fan.
