NFL Notebook: If the Patriots were to swing a draft day trade, who are likely partners and targets?

It's that time of year again, just 18 days out from the 2022 NFL Draft, when fans put on their general manager hat and imagine all sorts of different scenarios, from player selections to draft pick trades, that will somehow complete their favorite team and send them on their way to the Super Bowl.

If only real life worked out that way. It never does. Look at any recent Super Bowl champion, and you won't find many rookies doing much of anything outside of being a role player. But we digress.

Let us, for a moment, indulge in the fantasy that Bill Belichick could trade up, modestly, in the first round of this year's NFL draft (even though he's more likely to trade down). After never doing it previously, he did trade up TWICE in the 2012 draft for Dont'a Hightower and Chandler Jones. It's somewhat analogous because the 2011 defense was a dumpster fire in terms of talent, and Belichick moved swiftly and effectively to rectify that. After spending most of his money on offensive free agents last year, perhaps Belichick makes a similar yet smaller move this year.

That leads to three obvious questions:

1. Which positions would Belichick be targeting for an immediate impact?
2. Which draft slots/teams could he deal with, and what would it cost?
3. Which players could Belichick jump to take at each of those slots?

As we pointed out last week in a review of the Patriots' depth chart, the team doesn't have a huge amount of glaring weaknesses. They, as usual, have used trades and free agency to address every spot. They could line up tomorrow and compete. These would be the starting lineups:

Offense

QB: Mac Jones
RB: Damien Harris
HB: Jonnu Smith
TE: Hunter Henry
WR1: DeVante Parker
WR2: Nelson Agholor
WR3: Kendrick Bourne/Jakobi Meyers
LT: Isaiah Wynn
LG: Yasir Durant
C: David Andrews
RG: Mike Onwenu
RT: Trent Brown

Defense

REdge: Matthew Judon
RE: Deatrich Wise/Christian Barmore
NT: Davon Godchaux
LE: Lawrence Guy
LEdge: Josh Uche/Ronnie Perkins
LB: Ja'Whaun Bentley
LB: Mack Wilson
CB: Malcolm Butler
CB: Jalen Mills
SCB: Jonathan Jones
FS: Devin McCourty
SS: Adrian Phillips
3S: Kyle Dugger

You may not like the sound of some or most of that, but that's your team, and it's not really going to change — and it's not likely to be influenced that much by any one draft pick.

That being said, there are a few spots that could alter things for this team sooner rather than later. They aren't go-to-have-it-or-no-chance needs, but they're pretty damn important for this team moving forward:

THE GLARING NEEDS

No. 1: Offensive Tackle

Wynn is in the final year of his deal and he's an average, at best, left tackle. I have a hard time seeing the Patriots not letting him hit the market next offseason, which means they could really use an in-house replacement right now. Whether Wynn kicks inside to guard for the rookie or even Trent Brown switches sides ... it's pointless to really debate that now. It will be settled on the practice field, and not a moment sooner. The Patriots need options. They obviously didn't think Justin Herron or Yodny Cajuste or Yasir Durant were all that capable of starting even at RT or Brown wouldn't be here. Suffice it to say, the Patriots' starting LT in 2023 is probably not on the roster, and that's a big issue.

No. 2: Man coverage corner.

The Patriots signed Malcolm Butler to go along with Jalen Mills but, let's face it, both are No. 2 corners at this point — at their ceiling. Shaun Wade is probably in the same boat after the Ravens jettisoned him last camp after they drafted him. And there's nothing behind those three, and Jon Jones is in a contract year. So a cornerback with potential to be a matchup issue for the other team ... would be welcomed.

No. 3: Interior run stuffer.

Godchaux was a mild disappointment in his first season, and he could definitely improve. But he's never going to draw much attention, or hold up to many double teams. The Patriots have been terrible against the run two years running. You would think that would irk Belichick and cause him to rectify the situation.

THE POTENTIAL TRADE PARTNERS

The Patriots don't have a ton of trade ammunition. Yes, they could trade a future pick, but please save your N'Keal Harry trade scenarios — no one cares. Here's what the Patriots have, and their value on the trade value chart, which the Patriots pretty much follow:

So, basically, the Patriots have about 1200 points if they package their first two picks, and 1000 points if they use their first and third. Where does that get them? Here's the top 21 trade values:

THE TARGETED PLAYERS

Combining our needs list and surveying some mock drafts, along with Kevin Field's take on Patriots fits from his draft series, these are the players that could be in range of the 13th-19th pick:

CB Derek Stingley Jr., LSU
CB Trent McDuffie, Washington
DT Jordan Davis, Georgia
OT Trevor Penning, Northern Iowa
OT Charles Cross, Mississippi State

What Field has said about each player:

CB Derek Stingley, Jr., LSU (6-0, 190): Grandfather is former Patriot, Daryl Stingley. Derek is one of the most talented players in the whole draft. There are some that believe he could suffer a drop on draft night because he hasn’t maxed his potential, he has a foot injury (Lisfranc) and hasn’t physically tested for NFL scouts. I’m not worried about the testing numbers, his athleticism is elite, but that injury can be scary for skilled players because there’s a chance it becomes chronic. 

He’ll be able to play in any scheme, he has no fear about playing press man coverage and he's as fluid as they come, especially impressive given his plus size (he plays bigger and can match physical wideouts). That all said, he’s not a completely clean evaluation. Teams will have to rectify that he was the best corner in college football as a freshman (he had 6 INTs on their national title team), but he hasn’t played to that level consistently in the last two years (only played in 10 games since). His personal defensive "ratings'' have been strong, but the LSU defense has been terrible (especially given the plethora of talent). His medicals and interview are the most important part of his evaluation. 

If the Patriots are comfortable with the foot, and he’s available at 21, they should run to the podium. A great indicator of a prospect’s ability to make an impact as a rookie is how they played as a freshman in college. Stingley would make their defense better next year. However, I think he’ll be gone before they have a chance to pick him.

CB Trent McDuffie, Washington (5-11, 193): Really good player, he was a 3-year starter and first-team PAC-12. He’s not the biggest cat but compensates with his compete level. He’s played a lot of zone, he's probably the best zone corner in the draft, and it's reasonable to believe he could play man coverage (but more of a projection). Smart player reading routes and solid instincts. He’s also one of the best tackling corners in the draft, he’s only missed 6% of his tackles. 

The knock on him is two-fold and fair. He has average size (with shorter arms) and limited ball production (8 PBU and 2 INTs in 28 games). If you’re picking a corner in Round 1, ideally you want them to be able to turn the ball over for your defense. Trent is a relatively clean prospect, offers a good floor evaluation that projects as a good starter. He’ll go in Round 1.

NT Jordan Davis, Georgia (6-foot-6, 340 pounds): He's virtually impossible to single block in the run game and very difficult to run at directly. He can make “wow” plays that just aren’t common and he will make someone’s run defense better. The biggest part of his evaluation is that he only plays 20-25 snaps a game and tires quickly. 

He's not the fastest guy off the ball, doesn't offer much in pass rush and could do a better job getting hands up to deflect passes. I compare him to former Jacksonville Jaguar John Henderson or ideally Ted Washington for all of us older Pats fans. In a passing league, there’s a question of how much to value that skill set in Round 1.

Trevor Penning, Northern Iowa (6-6, 330): Penning’s best trait is run blocking. Broad shoulders and long arms for the pass game but needs to work on handling speed and stunt awareness. Reputation proceeds this tape, and he plays with the nasty streak with the ability to move people. He has ideal size but needs to watch his pad level. I thought he was the best tackle in Mobile at the Senior Bowl. He could start next season, but he may struggle early against speed rushers.

Charles Cross, Mississippi State (6-5, 305): His tape last year showed flashes of brilliance baked with inconsistency. This year he’s been more consistent - especially pass blocking. He really improved his technique (which unlocked his size advantage) and showed the traits needed to be a top tackle (mirror, anchor, strength to stunt defenders, etc.). Cross was a high-level recruit because of his size and athleticism. Not sure if he’s a Day 1 starter (that is a very basic scheme, there’s some technique work, and push needed in the run game), but he has Pro Bowl potential and fits the profile of an ideal LT.

PARTING THOUGHTS

For Belichick to possibly trade up, I think you need to narrow it down to elite players, those that he doesn't have much doubt about being a major player in, at the latest, his second season. I would pare down the list to Stingley, Davis and Penning, with McDuffie and Cross just on the outside because they don't quite fit the elite physical profile.

Combining everything we've talked about, I think Davis would be the overwhelming favorite in a trade-up scenario. There just aren't many players like him, he would instantly upgrade the defense immensely, and Belichick loves Georgia/Kirby Smart (Nick Saban disciple) players. 

I would put Davis, if he's available, in play for a trade up to 13 (Texans) or 14 (Ravens), although Baltimore might want Davis and could drive a hard bargain.

I would put Stingley down as possible at 15 (Eagles) or 16 (Saints).

Penning could be in play at 15 (Eagles), 16 (Saints), 18 (Eagles) or 19 (Saints).

Yes, I'm sure some of you are screaming about a receiver or a linebacker ... I get it. I just don't see it as likely, even if I'm not ruling it out.

And at the end of the day, I'm not sure any of these players are special enough to get Belichick to not stay put or trade down. But if I had to wager on one, it would be Big Jordan Davis. Man, he'd look good in the middle of this line with Christian Barmore for years to come.

NICKEL PACKAGE

1. Say what you want about the Patriots and their ... slowness to offer contract extensions: their approach may be a bit outdated, but it's aimed to keeping unity in the locker room. Look at what the Bills have brought on with extensions/big contracts to Josh Allen, Von Miller and now Stefon Diggs. Suddenly other players, who have helped build up the Bills to the point they're getting a new stadium, are wondering where their money is. Safety Jordan Poyer recently hired Drew Rosenhaus and is looking for a new deal. Looking for a way to compete with the Bills this season? A little locker room contract jealousy could help.

2. Finally got to the bottom of the Bill O'Brien mystery, and why he's not back here as offensive coordinator. A) O'Brien made a two-year commitment to Saban. B) Belichick just wasn't going to put Saban, his good friend, in the position of giving his blessing on O'Brien leaving. Sure, you and I can say it shouldn't be that hard to pick up the phone and say, "Hey Nick, you can just tell me no and I'll go away ... but do you think you could stand to lose Billy?" That seems reasonable and follows the old adage of it never hurts to ask ... but Belichick knew that wouldn't be fair to put Saban in that position, so he didn't touch it with a 10-foot pole. Now, don't rule out O'Brien for next season if the Matt Patricia-Joe Judge plan does not work well.

3. If you're hoping, like me, that the Patriots land Jordan Davis, it could have been helped that Calais Campbell returned to the Ravens on a two-year deal.

4. I covered Mike Mularkey and knew his family a bit. It doesn't surprise me one bit he would say this, now at the center of the Brian Flores lawsuit, on the Steelers Realm podcast in 2020: 

"I've always prided myself on doing the right thing in this business and I can't say that's true about everybody in this business. It's a very cutthroat business and a lot of guys will tell you that. ... I allowed myself at one point when I was in Tennessee to get caught up in something I regret it and I still regret it. But the ownership there, Amy Adams Strunk and her family, came in and told me I was going be the head coach in 2016 before they went through the Rooney Rule. And so, I sat there knowing I was the head coach in '16 as they went through this fake hiring process. Knowing a lot of the coaches they were interviewing, knowing how much they prepared to go through those interviews, knowing that everything they could do and they had no chance of getting that job. Actually, the GM, Jon Robinson, he was in on the interview with me. He had no idea why he was interviewing me—that I had the job already. I regret. I'm sorry I did that. It was not the way to go about it."

5. Count Lions coach Dan Campbell as being on the Belichick/Patriots side of the "do you need an elite quarterback for long-term success?" debate. Via Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free-Press: 

“No, I don’t think you need that," Campbell said. "I think that those guys like that are obviously, they’re special. And they certainly can give you a better chance. But no, I don’t believe you have to have one of those guys to have sustained success."