Starting to take a closer look at what the Patriots currently have on the roster, and the top draft prospects at each position.
Previously:
EDGE
Current Roster
Matthew Judon (2024), Josh Uche (2023), Ronnie Perkins (2024), Henry Anderson (Contract Year)
Patriots Historical Drafting
Over the last 15 years, the Patriots have made 15 selections. Thirteen of those picks have come from major conferences, with the SEC having 6 selections. The Patriots nailed two: first-rounder Chandler Jones (Syracuse) and fourth-rounder Trey Flowers (Arkansas). They’ve only targeted the position early in 3 cases: Jones, Uche (Michigan), and Jermaine Cunningham (Florida).
Draft Expectations for the Position
From a league perspective, draft numbers aren’t as clear because of the evolution of what schemes mean for the front seven. Some teams refer to their edge players as defensive ends and others as OLB. Over the last 5 years there've been 3.8 true defensive ends selected in the first round. I expect at least five DE/Edge players to go in the first round. This is the deepest position in the draft class with lots of versatility and value depending on the type of player you want.
This is an area I expect the Patriots to address, especially after cutting Kyle Van Noy and trading Chase Winovich. Matthew Judon was by far their most productive player but went into the witness protection program late in the season, Josh Uche has a ton of potential but hasn’t stayed on the field due to injury or coaching decision. It should be noted, Perkins essentially had a redshirt last year. He flashed at times during training camp, and he was a good player at Oklahoma. Henry Anderson is a versatile defensive lineman who is strong against the run from a 4 or 5 technique.
Lastly, the Patriots traditionally like someone who is at least 6-3 with enough length to help set the edge, enough anchor to play the run (at least 240, ideally bigger) and fast enough (under a 4.7 40) to not be a complete liability if they drop into coverage. This isn’t a hard and fast rule, they have flexed on it, but it’s an important barometer for anyone they might select in the first half of the draft.
Potential First-Rounders
DE Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan (6-foot-6, 260 pounds): At the start of the season, I compared Hutchinson to former NFL star, Ryan Kerrigan, and highlighted him as a potential target for the Patriots. Unfortunately, they won’t have the opportunity after his senior year production (75 tackles, 66 pressures, 14 sacks, 19 TFL). Good mix of power, size, and athleticism. He tops it off with a diesel motor. His inside counter move might be the best in the country, and he showed up in big games for Michigan. He was more consistent this year than Kayvon Thibodeaux and should be a top 3 pick.
DE Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon (6-4, 253): There’s been some recent debate that scouts aren’t as high on him, the game may not be his top priority, etc. I think that should be taken with a grain of salt and this time of year is filled with misinformation. The reality is that he has all the tools, the frame, and the upside to be a top pick. He wasn't as productive as Aidan Hutchinson, but he has a higher ceiling. Thibodeaux can defend the run, drop in pass coverage, and beat offensive tackles with suddenness, power, or bend. He’ll be able to play in any scheme. He's had some injuries and will need some refinement on technique, but he has All-Pro potential.
DE Travon Walker, Georgia (6-5, 272): He’s very good against the run and a team will be betting on his size, versatility, and potential. He played well down the stretch for Georgia which helps his evaluation against top competition. He didn’t put up great sack/hurry numbers, but he can win with quickness against interior lineman. He’ll get picked higher (top 10) than his stats (33 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 6 sacks) would indicate because of the skillset and raw testing numbers. His best position in the NFL is as a strong-side DE but he'll be scheme versatile.
DE Jermaine Johnson II, Florida St (6-4, 255): He has the capability to be a three-down player at the NFL level. He needs to improve technique, but he has all the physical traits and measurables you’d want in an edge player. For those Netflix fans, you may recall Johnson from the show “Last Chance U”. He went to Georgia, played well in a reserve role but didn’t start because of their ridiculous defensive depth and then transferred to FSU. From there he’s been gaining steam. He was ACC Defensive Player of the Year for Florida State, leading the conference with 12 sacks and 18 TFL. Then he was one of the best players at the Senior Bowl. His game against Miami was dominating. He constantly tilted the field, showed a great motor, and finished with 7 tackles, 5 TFL, 3 sacks, & 1 FF. I think he’s a top 20 selection and can be a solid contributor as a rookie.
DE George Karlaftis, Purdue (6-4, 268): He didn’t produce a ton of sacks but did have good pressure numbers. Good competitiveness, decent quickness, and plus power. He has active hands which makes it hard for linemen to stay locked. He needs to develop more pass rush moves for the NFL game, but he has some explosive testing numbers. His position at the next level is strong side DE or even putting on more bulk to play base end in a 3-4 scheme. His size would allow him to drop inside on pass rush downs at the next level. I think an accurate NFL comparison may be a slightly better A.J. Epenesa, who plays for the Buffalo Bills.
OLB David Ojabo, Michigan (6-5, 250): Note, Ojabo suffered an Achilles injury at Michigan’s Pro Day, and he’ll miss all or most of his rookie season. He was a first-round lock before the injury. Round 2 is now more likely, although some team that can afford to be patient may decide his upside is worth the pick.
He has boom or bust potential. Great first step, flexibility, spin, and the way he hunts the ball (5 FF this year) reminds me of former Colt, Dwight Freeney. His downside (or upside depending on your perspective) is that he doesn’t have more playing experience which means he's still raw for the NFL game. He needs development against the run; Michigan took him off the field against Georgia on obvious running downs. However, 2021 was his breakout season (11 sacks, 14 TFL), and he has significant upside.
DE Cameron Thomas, San Diego St. (6-4, 267): Thomas was the best player for the Aztecs and he’s a top 50 player in the draft, with an outside shot at Round 1. He’s aggressive, playing with good tempo and active hands. He uses length and lateral agility well while rushing the passer, allowing him to keep offensive lineman away from his body and disengage. At his size he’s been able to play both inside and outside effectively. He showed up lighter than expected at the Senior Bowl, which hurts his evaluation since his best pass rushing reps came on the inside. That said, his fit at the NFL level might be at a strongside 4-3 end or 3-4 end.
DE Boye Mafe, Minnesota (6-4, 261): He’s a mixed bag so teams will project him differently. Boye is a hard-working player, with good physical traits, and decent production (70 career pressures). I like his highlight tape, but his game tape isn’t always consistent, and his fundamentals have plenty of room for improvement. He’s rising up draft boards after a solid week at the Senior Bowl and a very good combine and there’s a chance to lands in Round 1.
San Diego State Aztecs defensive linemen Cameron Thomas (99) celebrates a sack during a college football game against the UNLV Rebels on November 19, 2021 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
POTENTIAL PATRIOT FITS BY ROUND
Round 1: Cameron Thomas.
I originally targeted Travon Walker before he absolutely crushed the combine. He fits their mold on scheme versatility, physicality, and the college pipeline. But he won’t be available, and I don’t think Jermaine Johnson II will be on the board either. I think the rest of the guys will be available if they trade back in Round 1. Ojabo would be a shrewd pick, but they’d have to be really patient, and I don’t love that in Round 1. Cameron Thomas won’t appear in many mocks, but I like his versatility. The Patriots would ask him to bulk up north of 275 pounds and play 3-4 defensive end.
Round 2: Drake Jackson, USC (6-3, 254).
Jackson was the first guy off the bus for USC and he has the room to grow once he gets into an NFL strength program. He needs improvement against the run, he's not ready to play full time, but he has elite athleticism (including the ability to drop into coverage, if needed) and pass rush skills (great bend, flexibility). While he’s been a two-time All-PAC-12 player, Jackson hasn’t fully translated his athletic traits into consistency. But if he had stayed in school, and played well, he would be a top 15 pick next year.
Round 3: Kingsley Enagbare, South Carolina (6-4, 258).
Enagbare may be available here because he was stiff and didn’t test very well at the Combine. The reality is that he doesn’t have the bend of other top players and needs to be more consistent against the run. But if you go back to his SEC tape; he plays hard, has a solid first step, and he’s very good utilizing his hands against offensive linemen. He’s a good competitor and has size the Patriots look for in setting the edge. He’ll need refinement before becoming an every-down player on Sundays but classic tape versus testing evaluation.
Round 4: Darrian Beavers, Cincinnati (6-4, 237).
He’s listed as a LB and dropped 20 pounds coming into the Combine to help his athletic testing but he’s an Edge for the Patriots. He has the length they prefer at the position; he can play the run very well given his roots as a middle linebacker and he’s a good blitzer. He’s also a smart player who fits the Kyle Van Noy type role. When I spoke with him at the Senior Bowl, he said he was comfortable on the edge (UConn played him there at times before he transferred) and was willing to add weight if a team wanted him on the Edge.
Round 5: Isaiah Thomas, Oklahoma (6-4, 258).
The Sooners moved Thomas around the line of scrimmage, but he’d fit the Trey Flowers mold for the Patriots. He’s got a pro-frame and great length with the ability to pack on more “good” weight. He plays a little stiff which is a concern, but he hit their testing marks at the combine. He’s a bit of a late bloomer but he’s a smart kid and someone the organization should bet on given his frame and potential.
Round 6: Alex Wright, UAB (6-5, 271).
The junior captain has been playing since freshman year. He has a super long frame and he’s pretty versatile which may allow him to be a 3-down player. In the games I watched he does a good job chasing back side, can drop in coverage if needed, and he’s efficient rushing the passer. He needs more development and an NFL weight room. Note, I had plan to target Amare Barno (Virginia Tech) with this pick, but he ran a 4.36 at the Combine which will turbo boost his draft stock. Barno had a pedestrian season but led the Power 5 in TFL in 2020. He’d be an athletic, upside selection.
Round 7: Chris Allen, Alabama (6-3, 241).
This would be a very Bill Belichick / Patriots selection. He broke his foot in the first game against Miami and missed the season. He was second-team All-SEC last year, leading the conference in TFL (13). He played pretty well in big games. He's off the media radar because of his injury and his medicals will be very important but this would be a savvy move by the Patriots.