Let's face it: we don't know how the Red Sox' signing of Trevor Story will play out.
We can think that it was a good move, and that Story will impact the Sox in the field, at the plate and on the bases. Story's a quality player, still in his prime, and it would seem that his very presence improves the Red Sox -- in 2022 and in years to come.
But we don't actually know for sure. We don't know whether Story will be able to handle playing in Boston. We don't know how he'll adjust to second base, a position he played some in the minor leagues, but never, for so much as an inning, in the big leagues.
The possibility exists -- however slight -- that Story will be another Carl Crawford: a talented player who was a poor fit for Boston. That's part of the risk of free agency. Teams can do all their research about work habits and off-field behavior and mental toughness, and still get it wrong. It happened with Crawford and it's happened with others -- in Boston and other cities.
Here's, however, what we do know: before Trevor Story even gets a Grapefruit League at-bat, before he's warmly welcomed at Fenway in the home opener, before he delivers his first big hit in a Red Sox uniform, we already know a lot more about Xander Bogaerts.
Because without the intervention of Bogaerts, Story probably never signs with the Red Sox. Story had other options available, including a chance to remain at shortstop for a perennial contender (Houston). He chose Boston, and while the six years and $140 million had plenty to do with that decision, along with a chance to play for a team intent on winning, so, too, did Bogaerts.
Having targeted Story early this past offseason as a potentially perfect fit, the Red Sox went about the business of recruiting him. Players -- Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi, Kike Hernandez -- texted him and extolled the virtues of playing for the franchise and playing in Boston. They spoke about the tradition, the recent success and the winning atmosphere created by manager Alex Cora.
Cora, too, spoke with Story.
But on Wednesday morning, when Story was asked what ultimately was the turning point in decision to sign with the Sox, the infielder didn't hesitate.
"Bogie reaching out,'' Story told WEEI.com's Rob Bradford. "He didn't have to do that. That was something made me feel very comfortable.''
Earlier, in his introductory press conference, Story had already lauded Bogaerts for his recruiting pitch.
"Bogie's been amazing throughout the process of me coming here,'' Story said. "He reached out to me, we talked on the phone for a little bit. He didn't have to do that. I think it kind of shows his character and speaks to the kind of guy that he is. He wants to win and he wanted me to come here and that made me feel comfortable off the jump.
For Bogaerts, it was truly an act of selflessness.
Bogaerts has an opt-out at the end of this season, a chance to either force the Sox into ripping up the remainder of his deal and giving him more money and more years, or to get that elsewhere. And yes, Bogaerts was given the assurance by team management that no matter what happened, he, Bogaerts, would be staying at short for 2022, so there was no immediate threat to his position.
But Story's arrival complicates things long-term. If the Sox are unsure about meeting Bogaerts' demands, they can simply thank him for his nine seasons here and shift Story into the shortstop spot.
Story gives the Red Sox leverage in any future contract talks with Bogaerts. He provides them with cover.
And yet, Bogaerts didn't take that into consideration. He lobbied Story to sign with the Sox.
It didn't matter that he may been welcoming his replacement at his position. Bogaerts has heard the talk about his own poor defensive metrics and the Sox' need to improve their infield defense. He probably knows that while he has been at the bottom of the Defensive Runs Saved category at short in recent years, Story has been at or near the top.
But Bogaerts wasn't obsessed with his long-term future with the Sox. He was focused on something else.
"Trevor's been talking about winning,'' said chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. "Part of the reason why we after him is because we know how much he cares about winning. Everybody here already knows about how much Xander Bogaerts cares about winning. He cares about this organization and he showed it again in terms of this process. He recognizes talent and you could feel how much he wanted to add to this group and how much he wants another ring.''
In reality, perhaps we shouldn't be terribly surprised that Bogaerts acted as he did. Since he arrived in Boston as a 20-year old, Bogaerts has displayed an uncommon maturity and an appreciation for team goals over personal ones. He's never done anything to embarrass the franchise.
If we didn't fully appreciate all of that before, Wednesday morning supplied another exclamation point.