There are some undeniable positives to the Red Sox' signing of Trevor Story to a six-year, $140 million deal.
Most obviously, it makes the Red Sox significantly better in 2022. Story represents a huge upgrade over the previous favorite at second base, Christian Arroyo, who, while talented, doesn't have much of a track record and has a suspect injury history. Arroyo now becomes a very valuable depth piece for the Sox, capable of helping out at a number of positions.
Adding Story to a lineup that already boasted Kiké Hernandez, Alex Verdugo, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez and Bobby Dalbec allows the Sox to go seven deep with quality bats and makes them -- again -- one of the more formidable lineups in either league.
The Sox are unquestionably a better defensive team today than they were a day ago, regardless of where Story plays this year or in the future. He's saved an average of nearly a dozen defensive runs per season, and that skill will be in play no matter which side of the second base bag he plays. The Red Sox' infield didn't convert a lot of balls into outs last year, leading several pitchers to sport ERAs far higher than their FIPs -- Eduardo Rodriguez (ERA: 4.74; FIP 3,32) and Nathan Eovaldi (ERA: 3.75; FIP: 2.79) being the two most obvious victims
Also, not so insignificantly, it puts to rest the silly narrative that the Sox -- and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom -- wouldn't spend money. The suggestion that Bloom was here to transform the Red Sox into Tampa Bay North never made much sense, given that, in his only full season, Bloom oversaw a payroll that was among the top four in the game.
Still, narratives take hold if they're repeated often enough, and from the loudest platforms. The signing of Story -- the third-highest paid second baseman in the history of the game and now the second-highest paid member of the Sox -- officially puts that ill-founded theory to bed, once and for all.
The move also answers a request made by a growing number of players to add to the roster for 2021. On Saturday, Bogaerts and Christian Vazquez were among the players publicly urging the front office to get an impact player to help them, and Story more than qualifies.
The six-year deal -- with a potential club-option for a seventh season -- isn't likely to bankrupt the Sox. A six-year commitment is doable in terms of not handcuffing the team financially. In contrast, the Texas Rangers gave out a 10-year deal to Corey Seager, who's only two years younger than Story.
So far, so good.
But I can't help feeling that the Red Sox would have been better offer giving Carlos Correa the same deal he got from the Minnesota Twins (three years, $105.3 million) instead of the one they just gave to Story.
While Story has fine metrics at short, Correa is a better defender and would have represented a more immediate upgrade to the left side of the infield. And while Story has battled elbow injuries of late, hampering his throwing, Correa has perhaps the best shortstop arm in the business.
Correa has also had much more exposure to big games. As a member of the Astros, Correa took part in the postseason in every season of his big league career except one. He's played in 79 postseason games and reached the World Series three times. In all, he's collected 301 postseason at-bats.
Story? He's taken part in a total of five postseason games -- two wild card games and one NLDS. He has 22 career postseason at-bats.
That's not his fault -- the Rockies have been run as poorly as any major league franchise during his career. But with Correa, you needn't worry about how he would perform on the big stage. Meanwhile, Story hasn't had nearly the same number of opportunities, so we don't know he'll respond in October.
And while some find Correa's cocksure attitude off-putting -- he was the most defiant member of the Astros in the wake of the sign-stealing scandal, even though by most accounts, he didn't take part in the cheating. He practically begged fans and opposing teams to chirp at the Astros, maintaining that it would only make them better. It's pretty clear that Correa isn't one to back down when challenged.
But for me, this is mostly about term. I love the limited exposure the Twins have in their deal with Correa. Not only is it limited to three years, but there are opt-outs after each of the first two seasons. That means that Correa could leave the Twin Cities as early as this November.
But in today's game, that limited liability is a positive, and could have/should have appealed to the Red Sox. It's hard to argue against flexibility -- both on the roster and on the payroll ledger. Correa could have provided both.
For one season, it would have been somewhat of an awkward fit for Boston, since Correa would not have signed unless he was assured of playing shortstop, forcing Xander Bogaerts to second base.
In a short spring, that would have given Bogaerts a very small window in which to get acclimated to a new position. But eventually, it would have worked. Bogaerts is a good athlete and an ever better pro, and even though his ego might have been bruised, he would have put the extra time needed to learn the new position.
Would the arrival of Correa have forced Bogaerts out the door this fall? Perhaps. Maybe even likely. Bogaerts made clear upon his arrival this past week that he views himself as a shortstop and having his position given to someone else might have guaranteed he'd be elsewhere in 2023.
And that would have been OK, too. Bogaerts has been an outstanding representative for the Red Sox since he made his debut in 2013 and has been part of two World Series teams. He's been a model citizen, never once doing anything to embarrass the organization. With the media, he's been a standup guy, holding himself -- and when necessary, his teammates -- accountable. In short, he's been everything a franchise would want in a star player.
But this is, at bottom, a business. And if signing Correa meant that Bogaerts would want to go elsewhere, that's the price of doing business.
At the very least, the Correa contract and the oncoming opt-out would have given the Red Sox plenty of options. If Correa decided he didn't like it in Boston, the Sox could have gone to Bogaerts, promised him a return to his natural position, and given him a new six-year deal more in line with the current market. If Bogaerts was dead set against returning, the Sox could have taken the money ear-marked for Bogaerts' remaining seasons and sweetened the deal for Correa.
But as noted earlier, the most attractive aspect of the Correa contract was its short length. If Correa stayed for just three seasons before heading back into the open market for a longer, career-finishing deal, the Sox would have gotten the absolute prime of his career -- his age 27-28-29 seasons. And when that deal was up, Marcelo Mayer would likely be ready to step in claim shortstop for his own.
As it stands, committing to Story will effectively block either Mayer or Nick Yorke -- or both,.
If Story moves to shortstop, replacing the departed Bogaerts in 2023, Mayer is blocked. If the Sox extend Bogaerts, who remains at short with Story at second, both Mayer and Yorke are blocked for the long-term.
Bloom will say that you can never have enough quality players, regardless of position. He'll likely add that middle-infield prospects are athletic enough to move elsewhere. And in the big picture, both points are correct.
But it sure seems odd that after painstakingly restocking their farm system with quality players the last few years, the Red Sox are potentially in position of having two of their three best either blocked from contributing at the major league level, or forced into moving elsewhere.
Again, the Sox are undoubtedly better now than they were before adding Story, and by some measure, that's all that counts. But when Correa signaled a willingness to go to much shorter deal than anticipated, it sure seems like that would have been the smarter play for the Sox.
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The news that Chris Sale will miss his third straight Opening Day is a sobering one for the Red Sox and makes one question what the Sox now have in their ace lefty?
In all likelihood, Sale won't return before May. If broken bones, like the rig cage stress fracture he suffered, take six to eight weeks to completely heal, Sale won't even begin throwing until sometime in early-to-mid April. Then he'll need an additional few weeks in extended spring training to build up arm strength, and then another couple of weeks of rehab starts with a minor league affiliate.
While the Sox and Sale were intent on avoiding a projected timetable for his 2022 return, it wouldn't exactly be shocking if Sale needed until June before pitching for the major league team.
This, then, will mark the fourth straight year in which Sale fails to supply the Sox with a full season and the fourth straight year in which he'll fall well shy of the 200-inning milestone -- one measuring stick for true No. 1 starters.
That's not Sale's fault, of course. Shoulder woes (2018) and elbow injuries (2019-2021) are hardly uncommon for starting pitchers. At this point it's difficult to name many elite pitchers who haven't had one or the other or both in their careers. That list includes Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Stephen Strasburg, Walker Buehler, Yu Darvish, Tyler Glasnow, Lance Lynn, Eovaldi ... and many, many others.
But again, Sale has seen his seasons shortened for four consecutive years, and that's a long enough history of issues to pose the question: Is Sale still an ace upon whom the Red Sox can depend? It's hard to think so.
Even before his current injury, some doubts lingered. Sale was dominant at times in his nine regular season starts last year, after returning from a two-year mound absence in the wake of his Tommy John surgery, with a 3.16 ERA and an average of 11 strikeouts per nine innings.
But there were other troubling signs, too. Sale's WHIP was 1.336, way out of whack with his career WHIP of 1.035. For the first time in his career, he gave up many more hits (45) than he had innings (42.2) pitched. Sure, it would be easy to ascribe that to the challenges of coming back from a long layoff, and Sale himself admitted last week that he wasn't pitching last year with full arm strength.
More ominous still was Sale's postseason performance, in which he compiled an 8.00 ERA in three starts. Only once in those three games did he pitch into the fifth inning and again, he allowed more a hit per inning. Was this a matter of better teams squaring up Sale? Was it Sale tiring at the end of the season, however truncated it was?
It would have been fascinating to see him early this season, with the benefit -- for the first time in a while -- of having had a normal offseason.
Now, we won't get that chance. Sale will need more time to rehab the stress fracture, and when he returns, will probably have to overcome some trepidation about really letting go on the mound, It could be midseason before we can truly judge his effectiveness.
Then there's the matter of body type. Is Sale's slim build just not meant for the long haul? Is he indeed more susceptible to various injuries because of his slender physique? Is he to be considered at risk for the remainder of his career?
If so, that's obviously a bad break for the Red Sox, who, counting this season, have committed -- at minimum -- some $85 million to Sale over the next three seasons.
That's a lot of money to be tied up in someone who hasn't really delivered, for an extended period, since 2017, his first season with the Sox.
Maybe Sale will return in May or June, and be the dominant lefty he was when the Sox traded for him after the 2016 season. Maybe this latest, admittedly freakish injury will be only a short-term roadblock and all the work that Sale put in this past offseason, before it was interrupted by the stress fracture, will result in being overpowering on the mound.
But at nearly 33 -- he'll turn that later this month -- and given his track record in the last four years, that's becoming increasingly difficult to believe.
