Some thoughts on the Red Sox being in agreement with free-agent infielder Trevor Story on a six-year, $140 million deal:
* According to a source, it's the Red Sox' intent to have Story play second base -- for 2022, that is. That means that Xander Bogaerts remains the team's shortstop, even though by most defensive metrics, Story has been a far better defender at the position.
Since 2016, Story has saved 69 defensive runs at short; in that same time span, Bogaerts is at a -47. That's a gigantic swing, and yet, the Sox won't move Bogaerts off short.
Story has been dealing with an elbow condition that has hampered his throws, so perhaps playing second will help in that regard.
The timing is not great for Story to learn a new position. Let's assume that Story arrives in camp Monday or Tuesday after undergoing a physical and is ready to get into games Thursday. That will give him exactly two weeks to get acclimated to a position that he's never before played so much as an inning in the big leagues.
Story is a fine athlete and, as the numbers indicate, a terrific defender. So in time, he'll adjust. But in the short-term, he'll have to learn how to manage his footwork on double plays from the other side of the second-base bag, get comfortable with positioning, and will find himself at an unfamiliar angle as he fields balls.
The rest -- taking cutoffs from the outfield, for example -- will be easier to learn.
But there will be some growing pains as he gets used to both a new double-play partner and a new position. In a normal spring training, one not delayed by labor discord, Story would have had literally twice the amount of time to prepare.
* It's hard to say what this means for the future of Bogaerts in a Red Sox uniform, but it will impact it one way or another.
Bogaerts, of course, can opt out of his current contract after this season. With Story on the books for $23.3 million for the foreseeable future and Rafael Devers eligible for free agency after 2022, are the Red Sox going to be paying $85 million or more per season to three of their infielders? That seems difficult to believe.
The Story signing does give the Red Sox some added protection in the event
Bogaerts either prices himself out of town, or the Sox decide to move on from him. They could simply shift Story back to short in 2023 and allow Bogaerts to walk, focusing their energies -- and resources -- on extending Devers.
Without a major league option on their roster, Bogaerts could have had some real leverage with the Sox this fall. Now, the Sox have an in-house insurance policy.
The price for Bogaerts continues to soar. With Carlos Correa at $35 million in AAV, and both Corey Seager ($32.5 AAV) and Francisco Lindor ($34 million) in the same general neighborhood, Bogaerts can now rightly claim that he's not only currently underpaid ($20 million AAV), but grossly underpaid.
At this point, it's difficult to envision Bogaerts getting much less than $30 million in AAV on his next deal -- wherever that may be.
* One way or another, one big Red Sox prospect is going to soon be blocked.
Among the top three Red Sox prospects, two are middle infielders -- second baseman Nick Yorke and shortstop Marcelo Mayer. At least one of those two will be without a position in the next few years.
Let's assume that Yorke continues to matriculate through the Red Sox system at a quick rate and that he's ready to contribute to the big league team by 2024. If the Sox manage to extend Bogaerts, he'll have nowhere to play in the middle of the diamond.
Meanwhile, if Bogaerts leaves and Story shifts back to short, the Red Sox will have an opening at second for 2023, when Yorke will not yet be ready.
For Mayer, the picture is even cloudier. One way or another, either Bogaerts or Story will be Red Sox shortstop in 2023, and will be signed for the long-term.
No matter what scenario plays out, the Sox, after publicly stressing the need to improve their player development system, will have inadvertently blocked either one or two of their three top young players.
Strange.
* Barring some almost unimaginable corresponding deal, the Red Sox will be over the CBT (competitive balance tax) threshold this season for the first time since 2019.
After the Sox dealt off Mookie Betts, they dipped below the CBT in 2020, and again last year -- though just barely.
The team was at approximately $208 million in payroll Sunday morning before adding Story's deal (at $23.3 million AAV), which would take it over the first CBT threshold of $230 million.
If there was a year to go over, this would be it, having re-set their tax rate in the previous two years. Also, given the top players the Sox could potentially lose this winter (J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Bogaerts and Christian Vazquez), there's incentive to spend and go for it this season.
At the same time, the Sox have the potential for lots of payroll space opening in 2023 and beyond. Even if the Sox show little interest in extending, say, Martinez and Vazquez, they'll also be freeing themselves of David Price's contractual obligations after this season. Those three subtractions from the ledger alone will represent a savings of about $43 million or 2023.
* How will Story translate to Fenway?
Like many who've played at hitter-friendly Coors Field, Story's offensive numbers were far better at home than on the road.
While Story hit .303 at Coors, he hit just .241 on the road. And his OPS was more than 200 points higher away from Coors than at his home ballpark -- .752 vs. .972.
At the same time, Story's spray chart shows that he should adjust just fine to Fenway, where his pull swing and ability to hit the ball in the air will translate to higher double and homer totals.
And there's also two other recent examples of players who "overcame'' suggestions that they were merely Coors Field hitters.
D.J. LeMahieu had an off-year with the Yankees in 2021, but in his first two seasons posted a combined OPS of .922 with New York while winning a batting title. His .893 OPS in 2019, his first season in New York, was the second-best OPS of his career and the 1.011 OPS he had in 2020 was easily the best.
Then there's Nolan Arenado, who had a career OPS of .890 while with the Rockies and saw that figure dip to .807 in his first season with the St. Louis Cardinals. But Arenado still hit 34 homers and knocked in 105 runs and had a 121 OPS+ in his first year with the Cards -- exactly his career OPS+ while with the Rockies.