NFL Notebook: Just how far have the Patriots fallen in the AFC (so far)?

Most people, except the most ardent Patriots fans/In Bill We Trust-ians, believe the Patriots' 2022 offseason — in when they've reinforced the off in offseason — has set them back in the AFC East and AFC in general.

But is that really the case?

We tried our best to find out with the best method we know how: the good ol' Purple Chip list, in which we measure each roster by blue chip (elite) and red chip (borderline elite) players.

We broke down the division and the conference to figure out which teams are truly contenders.

Of course, this is far from scientific — we used our personnel opinion based on film, mixed with PFF's rankings — but we think the end result is fairly accurate at his present moment in time. Things can and will obviously change.

As of right now, we see the Chargers, Bengals, Raiders, Browns (depending on how long Deshaun Watson is suspended for), Bills, Chiefs, Ravens and Broncos as the clear upper echelon in the AFC. The Steelers, Titans and Dolphins are next. The Patriots bring up the rear among teams with a legit postseason shot/were in last year.

But not all is lost for the Patriots. Their hopes this season appear to rest on what Bill Belichick himself is banking on: internal improvement after the great Spending Spree of '21, especially from QB Mac Jones. If Jones can improve from the 15-16 range of NFL QBs — a very good start for a rookie — and vault into the top 10 range, say ahead of someone like Derek Carr, then the Patriots suddenly are right in the mix. Same goes for a step forward in Year 2 by a Nelson Agholor and/or Jonnu Smith.

But, yes, right now the Patriots are trailing. We think this is a fairly accurate list for the time being:

A couple of notes. An elite QB (listed) counts twice since they handle the ball so much. Only "good" offensive lines count and, really, that's hard to judge right now.

The big things for the Patriots would be for the offensive line to get into the good category, and for Jones, Agholor, Smith, Davon Godchaux, Mack Wilson/Ja'Whaun Bentley and Kyle Dugger to take big steps forward.

Definitely possible: Jones, Smith, Dugger. Longer odds: Agholor, Godchaux and the LBs.

The Patriots could also help themselves by getting a few very good street free agents (they are still out there, see below) to sign on. 

It doesn't look good now, but you can see the path forward.

Of course, other teams and players could take step forward. We may have shortchanged the Bills' defense (they have some young edge players ready to make an impact) and some of the Dolphins' offensive players, especially if new coach Mike McDaniel makes an instant impact

The Bengals surprised us a bit, and some of their players might regress after playing above their heads.

The Chargers are just loaded. But can Brandon Staley coach? He held them back last year, without question.

The Raiders also appear to be ready to take the next step, but it's the first year of a coaching change. That often has some bumps on both sides of the ball. We may have overrated their cornerbacks a bit, but the offense could be terrific.

The Chiefs need a lot of improvement on defense. The Ravens still don't have a lot on offense and it always hinges on the not-very-reliable Lamar Jackson.

The Steelers, Titans, Dolphins and Patriots all seem to be in the same group. Namely, which QB is going to play the best? You could easily make the argument it's going to be Jones with the Patriots, and that pushes them to the head of that line.

NICKEL PACKAGE

1. Street free agents that could still make an impact for New England:

Edge: Trey Flowers, Za'Darius Smith, Dante Fowler, Kerry Hyder
Receiver: Jarvis Landry, Cole Beasley, Daeshawn Hamilton
Interior DL: Eddie Goldman, Star Lotulelei
Cornerback: Janoris Jenkins, AJ Bouye
OL: Marcus Cannon

LB: Bobby Wagner

2. Unrestricted free agents that would make an impact (would count in comp pick formula):

Edge: Jason Pierre-Paul, Jerry Hughes, Jadeveon Clowney, Melvin Ingram, Derek Barnett
Receiver: Sammy Watkins, Desean Jackson, Odell Beckham, Adam Humphries, Dede Westbrook, Kenny Stills
Interior DL: Akiem Hicks, Calais Campbell, Brandon Williams, Jarran Reed, Steven McClendon.
Cornerback: Stephon Gilmore, Joe Haden, Patrick Peterson, Xavier Rhodes
OL: Trent Brown, Eric Fisher, Riley Reiff, Nate Solder.
LB: Jarrad Davis, Jayon Brown, Rashaan Evans, Kwon Alexander

3. A lot is being made of this quote, from former Patriots FB Jakob Johnson:

a) I don't think the Patriots are definitely done with the position, given the FB usually helps on special teams. It's a position they could add at any time. b) The Patriots have tried to go to a more athletic FB in the Kyle Juszczyk mold for a couple of years — that's why Dalton Keene was drafted. c) They should have pulled short of giving Johnson a real contract like the Raiders did.

4. Have to hand it to Texans GM Nick Caserio for how he handled the entire Deshaun Watson saga, including what he got in return for a player with a no-trade clause. The Texans have quite the ammunition to rebuild that team, and they have a promising young QB in Davis Mills:

5. How many times do you think Josh McDaniels and Dave Ziegler had the conversation, "This is what we would do, that Bill wouldn't do, if we were in charge"?

What a huge swing on Davante Adams. Hey, at least they're going for it.

McDaniels has gone from coordinating Agholor, Bourne, Meyers, Henry and Smith, to Adams, Bryan Edwards, Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller (toss in Josh Jacobs ... Patriots RBs are pretty close). Not bad.