The Boston Celtics begin what could prove to be a pivotal west coast swing tomorrow in San Francisco. The four-game trip presents some challenges to a team coming down a little from the highs of its turnaround.
The Celtics had a stretch where their defensive rating during the January-February turnaround was below 100, which is beyond dominant. Through six games in March, though, the defensive rating is 108.9, sixth in the NBA, and 110.3 since the All-Star break, seventh in the league.
The Celtics are 7-2 since the break, though, and 5-1 in March with the one loss being a game where they gave up just 95 points. However, the defense wasn’t even at its best in that game either, so the Celtics will certainly be tested as they head out west.
“Goals are to continue to play as well as we have been,” Ime Udoka said before leaving for California. “We got some teams, obviously high-level teams coming up with some of their players coming back, so we've been talking about improving through the month of March. You know we had a good February but we want to play better this month, stay healthy and get everybody else acclimated.”
Derrick White is at the top of that list. White has averaged just 10 points on 42.1% shooting (25.8% from 3) since the All-Star break.
“He's a better shooter than shown here,” Udoka said. “He mixes it up really well whether he's a threat off the ball, catching it and driving it and making a play, or initiating offense or catching and shooting so we want him to stay confident, understand how important he is for us going forward. … We're confident with him there and then we still have 15 games to get them acclimated to everything.”
Add to that a sudden dip in Grant Williams shooting (25.9% from 3 since the break, 28.6% in March) and the Celtics bench is giving the starters very little in terms of offensive support. Those misses turn into transition opportunities, which impacts the defensive numbers as well, so both White and Grant Williams have to start hitting shots in order to give the Celtics time to get back and set their defense.
That's going to be especially important against some of these upcoming teams.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Throw the numbers out when it comes to Golden State because they have Draymond Green back now and that changes everything for them.
Green will probably come off the bench for the Warriors as he gets back into the swing of things, but he’s the engine that makes the Warriors go on both ends of the floor. Green is not only a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, the offense will run through him while Steph Curry and Klay Thompson play off each other to get open.
''I think what it did for him is what it did for all of us. You could tell the energy picked up,'' Curry said of Green’s return yesterday. ''It's not anything more than what's built on 10 years of experience and chemistry and winning and an understanding of how we do things. No matter how much time we have off, we can get right back to it. … we complement each other very well.”
Green had six assists in 20 minutes last night, three of which went to Curry and two to Thompson. Four of those assists were 3-pointers. Curry finished with 47 points. Thompson chipped in 20.
The Celtics do get up for playing the Warriors, and Jayson Tatum has had some incredible duels with Curry, but if they're going to have a chance to finish this road trip .500 or better, they’ll need to clamp down right away against the Warriors.
SACRAMENTO KINGS
This may seem like a gimme, but De’Aaron Fox has exploded since he hasn’t had to look over his shoulder at Tyrese Haliburton. Fox is averaging 23.2 points on 47.5% shooting (29.8% 3pt) for the season, but since the All-Star break, he’s up to 30.1 ppg on 51.8% shooting (38.6% 3pt). It’s ticked up to 32.3/52.1/43.2 in seven games this month, so the Celtics defense will certainly be challenged. He’s also added two assists to his overall total since the break (7.6 per game) to make the Kings offense more dangerous.
They also have Domantas Sabonis to deal with, which is no easy task. Of course, the Kings are still not good, which is whey they're only 2-5 this month, but they only lost to Utah by nine, Denver by six, and Dallas by one. They're giving good teams a run for their money, so if Boston saunters in there, especially if it’s after a big win in Golden State, they will find themselves in trouble.
DENVER NUGGETS
Another reason why the Celtics could fumble the Sacramento game is looking ahead to a tough Denver team with MVP frontrunner Nikola Jokic. Boston beat the Nuggets earlier this year but heading into altitude is always an issue for teams.
The Nuggets just beat the Sixers last night, getting a big contribution from Bones Hyland off the bench (21 points, 7-14 fg (4-9 3pt), 4 reb, 2 ast). Considering Boston’s bench issues, letting Hyland get going early will mean he alone could outscore the lot of them.
Hyland, a rookie, walks through the door with tremendous confidence, so it’s imperative they don’t let him hit a couple out of the gate.
"I just kind of go out there and play with joy and play with swag and just go out there and just be me at all times," he said after his outburst against Philadelphia. Boston’s defense is better than Philly’s, so it will have to be on point to avoid Hyland giving a similar quote again.
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Alright this team is aggressively trying to lose so this could be a rest game for a few of the Celtics on the back-to-back. The last thing Sam Presti wants is wins, so Boston should cruise. This could be a “half rest your starters” situation like the last game of the preseason where the regulars play the first half and then kick back and relax.
We’ll see how Udoka handles that last game, but we’re definitely heading into “taking games off to rest” territory. I’d expect Al Horford to sit out that last game for sure, and possibly others. That would give some of the high-minute guys an extra day of rest heading into that home game against Utah next Wednesday. Boston has three days off after that, so it’s a great chance to give guys a little extra break so they can play big playoff minutes, knowing they’ll get off their feet for a couple of days afterwards.
Two games separate Boston from the second-seed Milwaukee Bucks. They're one game behind third place Philadelphia, and a half game behind fourth place Chicago. They're also 1.5 games ahead of sixth place Cleveland, so every win and loss from here on out is magnified in the standings. The Celtics have a chance to come out of this trip at least 2-2 and possibly 3-1, but it will take them stepping up their defense and respecting their opponents.