Editor's note: This was something that I was working on — to finish our look back on 2021 before the 2022 offseason — but Tom Brady's unretirement forced me to shelve it. In light of the Shaq Mason trade to the Bucs news, figured I should publish it as is, with some more trade thoughts down below.
Basically, it answers ... why would the Patriots trade Mason, and why haven't they done more at receiver (yet)?
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Tried something a little different this year, and it was time-consuming. But I think it's worth it. I plugged in all my pluses and minuses for each player for each game and then totaled them up, and divided them by games with meaningful snaps to arrive at a Net Rating for each player. Not sure why I didn't think of this earlier, but you live, learn and evolve.
It caused me to look at some players in a different light, namely Nelson Agholor and Shaq Mason — both for different reasons.
One thing you have to keep in mind when looking at these numbers is that you can only compare players within their position groups. Offensive linemen have limited avenues to stand out, so even the most solid players are either going to come out even on the season, or just below (David Andrews and Ted Karras both had a net rating of around minus-1). Conversely, running backs have limited avenues to look bad (would most likely be missing a hole, dropping a pass or penalty), so they're all on the plus side, even JJ Taylor.
Let's first start with the offensive net ratings, and what that might say about the Patriots, Agholor and Mason:
Let's deal first with Agholor. Like many of you, I went with the assumption that the Patriots need to try to improve in that spot given what they got out of it, and 24 plus plays over 15 games for the receiver are just not enough.
But he also wasn't bad.
I know I've said this before during the season, but looking back now at the numbers reinforces it: If you're the Patriots and you signed Agholor last offseason, you could look at the lack of his input as being a product of an uneven offensive line for much of the season (he more than anyone else needs time for his routes to develop), the Patriots being conservative on offense to protect Mac Jones, and just having to deal with a rookie quarterback. And I heard a combination of all of the above from people around the team during last season. The view then was that Agholor was fine, he was a product of his surroundings.
So I wouldn't be shocked if the Patriots kept the status quo and let everything play out again on offense to give this group a real shot, which was, honestly, always going to be better in Year 2.
On the flip side, there's Mason, who only rated above Isaiah Wynn among regular starters on the team. That's a tough look for a player with the seventh-highest cap number going into this season. Could that color the team the other way and have them possibly looking to move Mason for a net cap savings? (Note ... guess we know the answer to that now, should have run this days ago Bedard, you idiot)
In Mason's defense, if you can call it that, it really was a tale of two seasons for the right guard. In his first nine games, he was a minus-23 (-2.55 net). In the final seven games, Mason was dramatically better at minus-4 (-0.57). If Mason played like that the entire season, he easily would have been the best lineman on the team. The question for the Patriots is, which Mason are you confident in getting for the final two years of his contract? If it's the late-season Mason, he's definitely worth his contract. If it's the other guy ... it might be time to move on.
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To add to this, here are Mason's stats that I had for his last four seasons:
That my grades and his stats, which were an improvement over the previous two years, don't really match is not surprising. I account for things (sustained blocks, run blocking that don't result in a run stuff, poor screen blocks, etc.) that don't show up in my stats. It's why football is so hard to quantify.
But the bottom line is, Mason did not have a strong first half of the season, and the Patriots rightfully questioned his future.
What will the Patriots do on the line, now that Ted Karras and Mason are gone ... this is how I see the depth chart:
There are two major questions, which they might not even have answers to:
- Is Onwenu a guard or tackle?
- Can Wynn play guard? Can Herron, Cajuste or Durant?
I do think the Patriots will be open to acquiring any lineman, guard or tackle, that gives them the most bang for the buck. That would free them up to put the best five out there at the end of camp.
I do think Herron or Durant can play guard. I think the Patriots will draft a guard with the eye on starting them, ala Joe Thuney and Mason. If the Patriots played a game tomorrow, think their lineup would look like this:
LT: Wynn
LG: Herron
C: Andrews
RG: Durant
RT: ONWENU (Sorry)
No, it's not ideal. And I'd still be looking to replace Wynn and trade him and his $10 million salary. But that's where they are, with secondary free agency and the draft to come. Still a long ways to go.
And, no, I don't necessarily think gaining $6.3 million from Mason's trade suddenly means they are going big on someone, since they only have $13 million in cap space right now. But it certainly doesn't hurt.
