Despite the disappointing loss to the Indiana Pacers, the Boston Celtics had a pretty good month of February. Here’s a look at some of the numbers (along with their NBA rankings)
The Celtics finished 9-2 in 11 games played in the month of February
— Celtics Stats (@celtics_stats) February 28, 2022
Avg. margin of victory: 19.9 points
Wins by 40+ points: 1
Wins by 30+ points: 3
Wins by 10+ points: 5
Games without trailing: 5
Total wins: 9 (tied, most, with Phoenix)
Winning percentage: .818 (2nd, behind 8-1 Utah’s .889)
Offensive rating: 116.5 (9th)
Defensive rating: 101.4 (1st)
Net rating: 15.1 (1st)
Assist percentage: 65% (sixth)
Rebound percentage: 49.7% (16th)
Turnover percentage: 13.7% (12th)
True shooting percentage: 59.5% (6th)
Free throw rate: .247 (16th)
The best defense in the league this month and a top-10 offense will certainly get the job done. They’ve mostly moved the ball well, resulting in a top assist percentage and true shooting percentage (which includes 3-pointers and free throws). They should also be better at getting to the line.
They do need to rebound better. We’ve seen a few games where the opposition has been crushing them with offensive rebounds. Also, taking care of the ball has been an issue.
Of course, numbers without context mean nothing, especially over a small sample, so let’s start by going back to January 1.
Total wins: 19 (tied, second-most, with Dallas, Denver, and Memphis)
Winning percentage: .704 (5th)
Offensive rating: 113.9 (9th)
Defensive rating: 102.3 (1st)
Net rating: 11.7 (1st)
Assist percentage: 62.3% (11th)
Rebound percentage: 50.8% (tied, 7th)
Turnover percentage: 14.4% (23th)
True shooting percentage: 58.4% (7th)
Free throw rate: .234 (25th)
The defense and offense has remained pretty consistent relative to the rest of the league this calendar year. You can see the assist percentage was much better in February, a sign of progress as the Celtics try to play more uptempo and make quicker decisions.
The rebound percentage dipped a bit in February, and I’m positive that the pre-All-Star loss to Detroit where they dominated the boards is heavily influencing those numbers. They are shooting better and getting to the line at least a little bit more.
Now let’s look at where they were before this turnaround. Here are the same numbers in November and December:
Total wins: 15 (11th)
Winning percentage: .500 (12th)
Offensive rating: 109.3 (17th)
Defensive rating: 107.5 (7th)
Net rating: 1.9 (9th)
Assist percentage: 57.5% (tied, 23rd)
Rebound percentage: 50.9% (8th)
Turnover percentage: 14.0% (15th)
True shooting percentage: 55.3% (21st)
Free throw rate: .247 (9th)
Both the offense and the defense have basically gotten proportionately better over the past two months. The true shooting percentage really stands out and it lends some credence to a few wins and losses depending simply on shots falling. I think that, even with the learning curve by Ime Udoka and the team, just some normal shooting earlier this season would have changed a few things for the Celtics.
We can just look at some individual shooting splits for proof of that.
Marcus Smart true shooting:
November: .538
December: .505
January: .574
February: .613
Smart has an obvious progression northward, even with a bit of slip against the Pacers. After hit his first 3-pointer against Indiana, his January/February 3-point percentage crossed 40%. He then missed six in a row, but Smart’s shooting has been a huge help because one of Boston’s biggest problems has been shooting to support Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Someone starting to hit changes the math for the Celtics a bit.
Grant Williams has been shooting pretty well all season, but his true shooting crossed 70% in February, which is a ridiculous number. His and Smart’s reliability as shooters so far this month has fueled the uptick and assists and been part of a reason why leads have grown the way they have.
Smart will come back down to earth at some point and level off somewhere. It’s just a question of whether that line is above or below acceptable. Grant Williams will also not continue shooting 48.7% on 3-pointers for the rest of the season the way he did in February.
That adds a bit of importance to the main guys to find a little consistency in their shooting.
Jayson Tatum true shooting:
November: .508
December: .585
January: .591
February: .569
Jaylen Brown true shooting:
November: .584
December: .523
January: .594
February: .550
Ideally, we’d like to see these percentages stay around the .580 range or better.
The bottom line with these numbers is that Boston’s best basketball has come with strong defense and good ball movement, which helps pump up the shooting numbers. We have two months of bad numbers and two months of good ones with about a month-and-a-half to go.
We can debate who the Celtics really are and each side will have plenty of statistical ammunition to back themselves up.
The answer will very likely unfold over March and April (and into the playoffs). With such a clean line where things have changed, what they do next will shape how this team is ultimately viewed.
They say winners get to write history. Boston has a chance to grab a pen and show just how much things have changed.