A few thoughts on the labor impasse, as an important deadline draws ever closer:
1) It surely didn't help the owners that, a week after commissioner Rob Manfred insisted, straight-faced, that owning an MLB franchise isn't all that profitable, documents suggesting otherwise were released.
Liberty Media, which owns the Atlanta Braves, is a publicly traded company and released its 2021 earnings report recently, showing that the Braves had revenues of $568 million.
Obviously, there are significant expenses that come with those revenues, including the Braves' 2021 payroll costs of $148 million. Still, that's an attractive profit margin. Braves fans were already upset that the team has yet to sign free agent Freddie Freeman, and these financials are going to make it tougher to maintain the team's stance.
It's a safe bet that the Braves' revenues were introduced as a topic of conversation at the bargaining table, as owners continue to maintain, without evidence, that they're being challenges to turn a profit.
2) It's stunning to see how little progress has been made this week, even though the sides have met for four consecutive days. Each side has made incremental concessions -- moving a few million toward the middle point here, and a few million there, but the sides are significantly apart on the two areas that need bridging: the CBT, and getting younger players paid sooner.
The discouraging part is how much still has to be done. Even if the two sides were to make big steps over the weekend on expanding the arbitration pool, the outline of a draft lottery and other contentious issues, most observers believe that the CBT thresholds and penalties remain the most important matter to settle.
MLB has, to date, offered a tiny increase in the CBT thresholds (from $210 million in 2021 to $214 million in 2022) while, astonishingly, upping the penalties in a big way.
No matter how much of an optimist you are, it's almost impossible to imagine that getting resolved by Monday.
3) ...And if Monday comes and goes without a deal, we could be for a long shutdown.
The owners made it clear earlier this week that Monday's deadline is a hard one, and if regular season games are missed, they won't be made up. Further, the players won't be paid for a full 162-game season, no matter when an agreement is reached.
Without a deal Monday, I would expect the two sides will break off talks, return to their respective corners and begin speaking to one another only through the media.
Worse, we'll have moved from active negotiations to a staring contest, with each side further entrenched and determined to outlast the other.
4) The MLBPA has a history of solidarity. It has never experienced any slippage within its ranks, over many, many years of prickly negotiations. Unlike the NFL Players Association, which can regularly be counted to fold like a cheap tent (how absurd is it that in a sport with a brutal injury rate and unparalleled profits, contracts are still not fully guaranteed?), baseball players have been resolute.
I would expect that continues if we get to Monday without a deal. Most players, even those who aren't actively involved in the talks, understand the stakes.. They've been educated about the importance of sticking together and recognize the value in doing so.
That said, it's worth noting that this generation of players has never been tested before. There's not a single player in the current MLBPA who has experienced a strike or a lockout before. The last time one began, in the summer of 1994, the following players weren't even born: Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Wander Franco, Ronald Acuna Jr., Bo Bichette, Rafael Devers, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Does that suggest that they'll fold and weaken the union's standings? Not at all.
But it may be that owners believe it's worth a try to test their resolve.
5) Both sides may be underestimating the patience of fans.
Sadly, MLB has a habit of failing to capitalize on opportunities.
In 2020, remember, baseball could have had the summer stage all to itself had it gotten things in order quickly. Had baseball returned in late July or early July, it would have had a head start on both the NBA and NHL, which were both attempting to get back to action. But a disagreement over length of schedule and percentage of pay that would be missed resulted in Rob Manfred implementing the owners' plan, and the season didn't begin until the next-to-last weekend in July.
Within a week, both the NBA and NHL came back, too, and any jump MLB might have had was forfeited.
Now, we're about to see a repeat. If a deal had been struck in December or January, or even early February, baseball could have benefited from the start of spring training just a week after the Super Bowl and the official conclusion of football season.
Instead? Swing and a miss.
And now, in a best case scenario, spring training will be getting underway just as fans turn their attention to the NCAA tournament, and the conclusion of both the NBA and NHL seasons, followed by the playoffs.
And again, the time to command the crowded sports calendar will have been squandered.
