Upon further review ...
I thought that I had covered all the possible outcomes when it comes to JC Jackson, the franchise tag, free agency and the Patriots, and thought the most likely result was the Patriots placing the franchise tag on him ... and then deciding whether to play him or trade him.
But after hearing from a few NFL personnel executives, including one whose team will be in the cornerback market, I had some second thoughts on how Bill Belichick might approach it. And it hit home because of one text in particular.
"Better be ready for him to be on your team at that price point if you tag him," one NFL executive said of the $17.3 million Jackson's salary will likely be in 2022.
Wait, what? Why is that?
Then I got it (a little slow on the uptake here). What if Jackson — and much of the public/media — are grossly inflating how valuable "Mr. INT" will be to other teams? I mean, ProFootballFocus.com has Jackson rated as the top cornerback available and sixth-best on its overall list:
Jackson is the star of the free-agent cornerback group, and as such, it seems unlikely that the New England Patriots will ever let him hit the open market. Jackson has had elite coverage numbers throughout his NFL career, and his PFF coverage grade has steadily improved to meet those numbers. For his career, Jackson has allowed a 50.5 passer rating when targeted, and he is coming off an 80.4 coverage grade.
....
The Patriots have never been afraid to place the franchise tag — most recently tagging guard Joe Thuney in 2020 before he signed a five-year, $80 million deal with the Chiefs in free agency last offseason. Jackson has a truly astonishing 17 interceptions over the last two seasons, but this means his perceived value is at an all-time high due to flashy stats in addition to career-best overall (82.7) and coverage grades (83.0) in 2021.
...
Contract Projection: Four years, $72 million ($18M per year, $56 million total guaranteed)
Another NFL executive thinks the Patriots do not value Jackson at that level.
And that would lead into a normal Belichick contract dance, which has worked both ways for him. Let's discuss how this might play out.
"I don’t think they will (tag Jackson) because I don’t think they want to pay him like top of the market," said the executive. "They think he’s a starter, not a top 5 corner."
Sometimes we too often look at this from the player side. Sometimes it's better to look from the team side, especially when it comes to Belichick.
What's the No. 1 factor when it comes to Belichick and how much he is going to pay a player? It's the player's valuation over the life of the contract.
We went over Jackson's red flags from college (which have not publicly been an issue since transferring to Maryland to finish out college), and how teams, first, consider how any and every player will change once they get their first big contract.
Considering Jackson's stats, interception totals, PFF accolades, not entertaining contract talks with the Patriots and wisely betting on himself, Jackson likely views himself as, at least, an $18-million per year player. Jalen Ramsey's top-of-the-CB-market deal at $20 million AAV will be two years old this offseason. I'm sure Jackson is shooting to approach if not surpass that.
What if Belichick doesn't view Jackson in that range? What if Belichick views Jackson somewhere between Stephon Gilmore's Patriots deal ($14 million AAV ... from 2017) and Darius Slay ($16.7 million AAV)?
Then that means Belichick is very unlikely to tag Jackson and possibly be on the hook for all of it — and Jackson would be wise to sign it immediately a la Wes Welker.
We've seen these kinds of moves out of Belichick. He let Devin McCourty, Vince Wilfork and Dont'a Hightower go and find their market, and Belichick matched for each of them at top dollar. When David Andrews became a UFA in 2021, he was deadset on getting paid elsewhere ... but he found no market. Belichick got that one right and got Andrews back at a great number ($4.75 million AAV).
Belichick could be eyeing the same sort of situation — he might be thinking no one else will pony up top 5 money for Jackson — but it's a dangerous game of chicken to play.
Belichick thought Tom Brady wouldn't have much of a market, and he was largely right, but the Buccaneers ponied up $25 million per season. Joe Thuney got paid by the Chiefs when the Patriots had some interest in not wasting $15 million and a third-round comp pick when their tag ploy did not work. The Patriots played similar games with Trey Flowers and Trent Brown in 2019, but they left. Same with Danny Amendola, Malcolm Butler, Dion Lewis and Nate Solder in 2018.
Why might Jackson fly the coop if Belichick plays the valuation game?
First of all, as we saw with Brady and others, it only takes one team to make a big offer. The market may indeed be depressed for a player like Jackson who may not widely be viewed as a shutdown corner, but the player is looking for a market of just one team to get paid.
If I were Jackson, I would be a little miffed with the Patriots after they passed on paying him $1.3 million more last season when they tendered him at a second-round level, instead of the first round. It was absolutely the right decision for the Patriots because it worked, but considering Jackson had been a good starter and the Patriots were awash with cap money last offseason, they could have done him a solid and chose not to. That would be in the back of my mind if I was Jackson.
McCourty, Wilfork and Hightower were all first-round picks of the Patriots, had been treated very well, were comfortable with their surroundings, so they were more inclined to stay if all things on the contract front were equal. Jackson's more in the Butler camp of having to fight for every nickel and opportunity, and might be more inclined to continue his career with another team if all things were equal (let alone weather).
And as opposed to Andrews, Jackson plays a premium position in the NFL and there is a dearth of good cornerback play around the league. You can play the waiting/market game at a lot of positions, but cornerback is no longer one of those. At least half the league could use an upgrade at cornerback, so the market would appear to be on Jackson's side.
So I've changed my mind ... I think (for now).
I think Belichick stays mostly silent with Jackson and he becomes an unrestricted free agent, but Belichick will hope that Jackson at least brings an offer back to him. At that point, Belichick will reassess and see what the true market is for Jackson. Belichick could pony up and keep his only legit starting cornerback. It's more likely he searches for value on the veteran market (he got Mills for $6 million AAV) while drafting a cornerback high in the draft and hoping Shaun Wade (trade from Baltimore last year) hits sooner rather than later.
A year from now, Belichick could be starting a second-year top draft pick, Wade and Jonathan Jones. Is one more year of Jackson worth $18 million as a bridge? Might be hard to justify that for Belichick.