The NFL franchise tag window opened today and will close on March 8th.
You can check out the history of the tag here (they are missing Joe Thuney). These are the projected tender amounts, from overthecap.com:
The Patriots have several high-profile players set to become unrestricted free agents — Trent Brown, Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Nick Folk (Devin McCourty is a void, so not eligible) — but unless Bill Belichick decides to shock us, there's really only player that is a contender for the franchise tag: CB JC Jackson.
Let's go through the entire situation, the Patriots' history with the tag, the options available to the Patriots when it comes to Jackson, and our prediction on how this plays out.
LEADING FACTORS
- Jackson would cost $17.3 million for 2022 under the tag, and $20.8 million in '23 (120%). At a minimum, Jackson and his agents would want any extension with Patriots to start at $38.1 million in the first two years ($19.05 million average).
- The Patriots could have put a first-round RFA tender on Jackson last season at $4.766 million, and instead used a second-round tender ($3.384 million). New England made the right decision for itself, but Jackson could have taken some offense at the team costing him $1.382 million — and he was certainly worth the higher tender.
- The tender difference was 26.5 percent of his total NFL earnings. Jackson, since being an undrafted free agent, has now made a total of $5.2 million in four seasons.
- Leading CB contracts by average annual value: Jalen Ramsey, $20 million; Marlon Humphrey, $19.5 million; Marshon Lattimore, $19.4 million; Tre'Davious White, $17.3 million.
- Leading CB contracts by full guarantee: Lattimore, $44.3 million; Ramsey, $43.7 million; Byron Jones, $40 million; Humphrey $40 million.
- The Patriots have only $5 million in effective cap space according to OTC, and would need to have at least $17.3 million by 4 p.m. on March 8th if they want to tag Jackson. If they trade him, they regain that space as soon as the trade goes through.
- Most realistic moves to gain more cap space: Trade Isaiah Wynn, trade or restructure Nelson Agohlor, extend Hunter Henry, extend Matthew Judon and extend Shaq Mason. You're talking over $20 million right there.
- Whether it's for Jackson or other free agents, the Patriots need the room to make some moves in free agency.
PATRIOTS TAG HISTORY
PATRIOTS' OPTIONS WITH JACKSON
Here are the options when it comes to Jackson:
- Let him walk in free agency for '23 compensatory pick.
- Sign him to an extension.
- Tag Jackson, plan on him playing, and then see what happens from there.
- Tag Jackson and trade him for better than the '23 comp pick.
RANKING THE OPTIONS
From least to most likely:
4. Let Jackson walk for a '23 comp pick (maybe).
This is otherwise known as the Thuney Boner. As opposed to Wes Welker, who wasn't going to have a huge market and basically had to beg the Broncos to sign him at a lesser contract, Jackson and Joe Thuney are in the same ballpark because they are top players at their position and in their prime. The Patriots screwed up with Thuney and wasted a third-round pick and $15 million they could have used last offseason. They can't do that again.
The Patriots could let Jackson walk, but they won't receive any compensation until '23 — and that's only if they don't sign a comparable free agent. Letting a good player go and getting nothing in return, Belichick is not going to let that happen again. We think.
Chance of happening: 5 percent.
3. Sign Jackson to an extension.
These first two options are pretty close. Would I be shocked if the Patriots signed Jackson to an extension? No, because the Patriots have put themselves in a box. After the Stephon Gilmore trade and a dearth of internal developmental prospects at cornerback (and, really, anywhere other than the offensive line), the Patriots have nothing in the pipeline to replace Jackson. That's probably why they traded for Shaun Wade. But he's about it beyond Jonathan Jones and Jalen Mills. I mean, the Patriots could turn to Joejuan Williams ... lol.
Without Jackson, the Patriots will have to find another man corner via trade, free agency or the draft who can approximate Jackson's talents at a cheaper valuation. That's a tall task but not impossible. We've seen the Patriots overpay in this scenario before (Devin McCourty, Vince Wilfork). They could do it again, but I highly doubt it.
One thing that many fans and media discount is how much the teams actually think about the player's potential behavior once they get that big-money extension. Many players have no issues. Some do. It is always part of the calculation. It's one thing for players to play hard and behave on rookie deals when they really aren't making a ton of money, relative to veterans. They have to toe the line to get that big first contract. Teams have to ask, "Will that player change once we give them $40 million guaranteed? Can we trust that player?"
It's a question that is asked of every pending free agent, and Jackson is no different. Remember, Jackson was undrafted due to off-field concerns at Florida before toeing the line at Maryland. Are the Patriots sold on Jackson off the field? What about on the field, where he seemed to make some business decisions down the stretch this year?
Then there's the issue of the contract. After making peanuts for four years, the Patriots cheating out on the RFA tender, rejecting extension talks, the two-year tag numbers and racking up interceptions, there's little way Jackson is settling for a contract that pays him at least $19 million per year. Is Belichick, who gave Gilmore an average of $14 million per season, really going to shell that out to Jackson with over $40 million guaranteed? It's possible, I just don't think it's very probable.
Chance of happening: 15 percent.
2. Tag Jackson, plan on him playing, and then see what happens from there
As we said, the Patriots have zero in the cornerback pipeline and have backed themselves into a corner. Might as well ride it out for one more year with a solid team in most spots. Yes, it will cost you nearly $18 million, but it buys you time and Jackson still has to play well since he'd be in another contract year. If the season goes south, you can trade him and recoup some cap space (what they should have done with Gilmore in '20). You could tag him again in '23 despite the cost with the team having over $90 million in cap space, maybe try for another extension. Or you could let him walk after giving a draft pick one season of seasoning.
Chance of happening: 35 percent
1. Tag Jackson and trade him.
The Patriots have a talented player and there's a dearth of good cornerbacks around the league. That should make Jackson valuable to the rest of the league. Yes, they have to give him a new contract, which will affect the compensation, but not a whole lot. Look at the recent (busy) history of tag and trades:
If the Patriots are fearful of how Jackson would react to money (remember, they tried to put all sorts of triggers in a potential Aqib Talib extension) and whether it would be worth it, then a tag a trade would be the way to go.
There would be a vast market for Jackson. Teams that need corners: Arizona, Atlanta, Chicago, Denver, Lions, KC, Las Vegas, Chargers, Rams, Minnesota, Jets, Eagles, Steelers, 49ers, Seattle.
Those on that list and with cap space: Chargers, Jets, Broncos, Seahawks, Steelers, Bears, Eagles, Raiders.
Better yet, here are the teams that are currently spending less than $10 million at cornerback for 2022:
Vikings
Chiefs
Jets
Seahawks
Raiders
Bears
Cardinals
Buccaneers
If the Patriots aren't willing to pay Jackson, then why would Ziegler and McDaniels in Vegas? The Vikings, Seahawks and Bears seem to be the best fits and can justify making a trade and handing out a big-money extension.
I think the asking price for Jackson would be at least a second-round pick in '22. I would be happy with a first in '23 (way better than letting him walk and getting a 3rd comp pick in same draft).
As for the Patriots, I would figure it out through free agency and the draft. Heck, the Patriots would be better off trading Jackson and signing Gilmore for cheaper and shorter.
Chance of happening: 45 percent.
