The Boston Celtics enter the final quarter of their season sitting at 34-26, alone as the sixth seed with 22 games to go but just 4.5 games out of first. Their recent hot streak pushed them out of mediocrity and into a position where asking “how high can they go in the standings” is legitimate.
Part of the answer there is up to them. They have to keep winning games they're supposed to win and give themselves a chance to rise in the standings. Part of the answer is up to other teams, and whether they win or lose to give Boston the opening. Sometimes winning the race is as much about finding passing lanes as it is simply being fast.
So here’s a look at the where rest of the East stands, in order of the current standings the day after the All-Star game.
TEAMS AHEAD OF THE CELTICS
MIAMI HEAT
Miami is healthy and they're the only East team in the top 10 in both defense (6) and offense (8), which makes them a legitimate threat to win a championship.
The biggest question is whether they can stay healthy. Eric Spoelstra is a magician with bench lineups, getting cast-offs and unknowns to become contributors once they're part of “Heat Culture,” but there is a limit to that magic in the playoffs. Max Strus is a nice story, but he’ll also be a big target if forced into a big playoff role.
CHICAGO BULLS
The Bulls are a bit of a surprise, but they're getting MVP-level play from DeMar DeRozan and it’s leading to more and more wins.
They are heavily reliant on their starting lineup, getting 86.2 points per game from them (second best in the NBA) vs. 26.5 from their bench (second-worst).
However, they're not alone in that. Look at the top six in the NBA in scoring per game from starting units:
Milwaukee Bucks
Chicago Bulls
Toronto Raptors
Boston Celtics
Philadelphia 76ers
Charlotte Hornets
Toronto, Chicago, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Boston are the bottom-five bench units in terms of points per game (Charlotte is ninth-worst), so this question about the Bulls applies to most of the East challengers.
Chicago’s biggest question is about their 20th-ranked defense, which happens to be 25th since January 1. That makes the Bulls vulnerable as it levels the playing field a bit. According to Tankathon, they have the league’s second-toughest remaining strength of schedule, so they could be due for slide.
PHILADELPHIA 76ers
One of the biggest question marks in the league right now as they begin their stretch run with the newly acquired James Harden.
On one hand, he’s an MVP-level player who instantly adds unfair firepower to a team that already has an MVP candidate.
On the other, he does nothing for their defense and both he and Joel Embiid have a sketchy history with teammates who steal too much of their spotlight. Harden especially has the reputation of asking for certain teammates only to quickly sour on them. Further, Harden’s playoff reputation is a bit shaky, so there is room for doubt.
There's no middle ground with Philly. This will either win them a championship, or it will blow up in Daryl Morey’s face. They have holes in their roster that talent will have to overcome. They certainly can do that and cruise to a top seed and maybe a championship. If they don’t, though, they could be in line for a surprising fall.
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
It’s amazing that they're still on this run, but they are. They are this year’s NBA darlings, which means two things: (1) bet against them next season. These surprising young teams are full of selfless guys who are willing to sacrifice, but that only goes so far. There's a correction coming there at some point. And (2) There's some significant overachieving going on.
At some point, the ‘win by playing harder’ model runs out of steam. They have seven games against the other top-five teams in the East, and that will be the ultimate proving ground. They should be getting Lauri Markkanen back soon, so let’s see if that helps or hurts.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
The question with Milwaukee is how much have they been coasting so far this season, and are they poised to turn it up and make a run.
I watch Giannis Antetokounmpo and see someone who is quite unbothered by how things are going. Is that bravado or a knowing wink that the Bucks have another gear to hit?
They are two games ahead of Boston and they have the toughest remaining schedule in the league. If they start to assert themselves as they have in the past, the Bucks can reclaim their spot at the top of the conference.
“As a team, we started playing good basketball towards the end,” Antetokounmpo said. “Maybe we can do it again. Who knows? We’re in a good place. We have a hell of a team.”
TEAMS BEHIND THE CELTICS
TORONTO RAPTORS
The addition of Thaddeus Young at the trade deadline gives them another long, versatile defender to toss into Nick Nurse’s schematic soup.
The Raptors managed to hang around thanks in large part to Fred VanVleet’s All-Star season and Scottie Barnes being a plug-and-play rookie. They’ve benefitted a little from teams being afraid to send players into Canada’s strict COVID protocols, lest they lose someone to extended quarantine.
Toronto’s formula is getting out into transition and crashing the boards. It’s all about defense and hustle, but if VanVleet goes cold or Pascal Siakam hits a funk, the already tenuous offense might not have enough firepower to make a big run.
They have the seventh-easiest remaining schedule, but they start off playing seven games in 10 days out of the break, which could be a make-or-break spot for them. Hit a skid in that stretch and they might find themselves stuck in the play-in.
BROOKLYN NETS
On January 21, the Nets were 29-16 and a half game up on Chicago as the top seed. Since then, Brooklyn is 2-12, and they've dropped all the way down to eighth in the East, seven full games out of first.
The obvious question right away is when will they get Kevin Durant, Ben Simmons, and Kyrie Irving on the floor together to see if they’ve struck gold. On paper, the combination will make the Nets a favorite, especially given that it gives them a defensive weapon they can deploy. In reality, it’s still very unclear when -- or if -- the trio will get any extended time together.
Simmons isn’t ready to go just yet. It’s possible they’ll get Durant back for the Celtics-Nets game on Thursday, but Steve Nash has said they will be cautious with Durant’s return from a knee injury. And there is still no movement on New York’s regulations that prevent Kyrie Irving from playing home games … and 13 of their 23 remaining games are in Brooklyn.
Maybe that's why the Nets are poised to pick up Goran Dragic after his buyout. It does nothing to help a middling defensive team with no real rim protection, but the Nets can at least play a consistent style of basketball in non-Irving games.
That first game out of the break is actually a big one. If Boston can win, they add a game of separation between themselves and Brooklyn, making it just a little harder for the Nets to catch them in the standings.
CHARLOTTE HORNETS
They're five games behind Boston, so it will be tough for them to make a move to overcome the Celtics. Their acquisition of Montrezl Harrell at the deadline adds another scorer to a potent offense, but it also adds a questionable character guy into a nice mix in the Hornets locker room.
Harrell is tough and tenacious, but he’s had blowups with teammates in Los Angeles and Washington. The last thing the Hornets need is someone poisoning the water there.
Also, he does zero to help their horrific paint defense.
Also, Gordon Hayward has missed some time with a sprained ankle, and it’s unclear when he’ll return. Celtics can do themselves a favor by beating the Hornets in Charlotte on March 9.
ATLANTA HAWKS
They're also five games behind Boston, and they also face the Celtics again. C’s-Hawks on March 1 could be what keeps the Hawks off Boston’s tail for the rest of the season.
Remember what I said about Cleveland being the darling of the league? That was Atlanta a season ago. Now, after a taste of success …
“I feel like our approach night-to-night isn’t the same,” Clint Capela told The Athletic. “Maybe we don’t prepare ourselves well enough for every game. It obviously affects how we’re playing our opponent every night. It hasn’t been good for us. It’s clearly an issue.”
The Hawks have talent so we can’t count them out, but this is also the team that made team President Travis Schlenk say, “I have to accept that responsibility that maybe it wasn't such a great idea to bring everybody back. That's on me.”
WHERE DOES THIS PUT BOSTON?
In my opinion, the most solid contenders remain Miami and Milwaukee. They have the star power, experience, depth, and good coaching to keep their spots at the top.
If things go well with the Harden trade, Philadelphia joins that mix. I think both sides are motivated to make a late-season run, so it’s more likely to work than not. But it not working is not out of the question.
Chicago is better than Boston, but this is where the Celtics start to enter the equation. They split their two regular season games so far, so the April 6 matchup in Chicago could be an important game for the tiebreaker. If Boston’s defense can keep up its elite pace, the Bulls and their porous D could be in for a rude awakening with such a tough schedule remaining.
The Cavs are in this mix as well, mostly because they're too young and motivated to realize they shouldn’t be. If Cleveland encounters any bit of adversity, there could be an opportunity to pounce.
In the end, Boston has a strong chance to finish exactly where we expected them too: fighting for the fourth seed and home court in the first round with an outside shot at something better, but also a chance to blow it and head into the playoffs as the sixth or seventh seed. They have the league's 10th-toughest remaining schedule, but the league's second-best defense and some momentum. Their fate is in their own hands.