Bruins desperately need Brandon Carlo to be a steadying presence on revamped D corps

NEW YORK — For years, a Brandon Carlo shift has often been where scoring chances go to die.

Boston’s D corps might have been anchored by the looming presence of Zdeno Chara for over a decade, but Carlo established himself in short order as a stout, stay-at-home option on the B’s second pair, forming an effective partnership with Torey Krug.

For as much as Krug stole most of the highlights thanks to his offensive capabilities, Carlo thrived as one of Bruce Cassidy’s go-to D-zone equalizers, tying for third among a pool of 252 NHL defensemen (min. 500 minutes of 5v5 TOI) in goals against per 60 minutes of play over a two-season stretch from 2018-20.

And even though familiar faces like Chara and Krug have continued their respective careers elsewhere, having Carlo’s shutdown talents entrenched on this roster for the foreseeable future (fresh off of inking a six-year contract last July) offered at least some semblance of security outside of the established production Boston was set to receive from Charlie McAvoy.

Sure enough, McAvoy has been as advertised, further placing himself as one of the premier young blueliners in the game. When paired with McAvoy, Matt Grzelcyk has checked off all of the boxes when it comes to his strengths, formulating an up-tempo, 5v5 buzzsaw of a top pair. 

Even youngsters from the AHL ranks like Jakub Zboril (before his season-ending knee injury) and Urho Vaakanainen exceeded expectations on Boston’s defense and have looked the part as capable, everyday NHLers.

But Carlo, much to the B’s chagrin, has seen some of the hallmarks of his game slip in a season where Boston desperately needs his steadying presence on that second pairing. 

Now, when it comes to delving into the underlying numbers, assessing the play of a stay-at-home defender can sometimes be a slippery slope.

Considering the amount of unfavorable ice (namely, faceoffs outside of the offensive zone) handed to players night in and night out, it’s to be expected that some puck-possession stats such as shot share and shots on goal aren’t going to paint a pretty picture.

But be it Carlo’s downward trend of being on the ice when pucks have been sailing into the B’s net — or just the basic eye test of what has been some tough sledding for the normally steady defender in his own zone — Carlo’s game hasn’t been up to his usual strong standard over the last few months. 

“I think his game could be better,” Bruce Cassidy said of Carlo earlier this week. "I mean, you never want him to lose the guts of his game, which is a good, solid defender. Always playing against good players every night, positionally sound, help on the kill. So we got to make sure that any puck plays don't affect that part of it, that drags that game away from him. So that's what we're reinforcing with him. 

"The puck plays, I think he's trying to make the right plays — he's just not right now in some instances and part of that's just playing through it. Fighting through it. We have a lot of confidence in Brandon, but at the end of the day, having a little more confidence in himself — how can we build that up so that when he is in those positions and it needs to be automatic, it happens for him.”

Handling the puck, especially against fast-paced clubs that close in quickly on the forecheck, has often been at the crux of Carlo’s woes this season, often leading to those Grade-A looks that were usually a rare occurrence on a Carlo shift. 

(While Boston still possesses one of the better defenses in the league as far as relinquishing 5v5 scoring chances is concerned, it’s not necessarily a good sign that the B’s expected goals rate is higher when Carlo is out on the ice. In total, Carlo has been out on the ice for 23 goals scored — and 30 against — during his 5v5 ice time this season.)

Unless Boston wants to curb Carlo’s D-zone starts (which would then need to be allocated to either McAvoy’s minutes or on the third D pair), the best remedy would be to find a puck-moving partner that Carlo can defer to when pressured with the puck.

But that has also been easier said than done, especially with Mike Reilly struggling at times to fully recoup the offensive impact he displayed during the stretch run last season, be it in transition or along the offensive blue line.

One solution to help unlock more out of Reilly is sticking him with McAvoy, which seems to be Cassidy’s plan once again on Tuesday against the Rangers.

“it's offensive situations for him that drive him,” Cassidy said of Reilly. “I think games that he sees the puck more, and you're gonna with Charlie. Charlie has the ability to have clean breakouts and spring forwards and usually whoever his partner is will be able to have access to supporting the rush if Charlie makes one of those plays — he's freed up to get going and support. 

"So I think that helps Riley a lot too, when he's that guy that gets to support the rush and touch it as it's going into the offensive zone, coming late. I think that gets him excited and it's one of his strengths, so that's probably to me when his game starts to get some juice.”

And yet, while that Reilly-McAvoy duo impressed last Saturday up in Ottawa, it doesn’t necessarily do much good for Carlo.

For as dominant as a Grzelcyk-McAvoy pairing has been for years, a Grzelcyk-Carlo pairing just hasn’t meshed at all this year, with Boston outscored, 10-3, in their 226 minutes of ice time together in 2021-22. 

Given both those unsightly totals put forth by Grzelcyk-Carlo and the assured production that comes with reuniting Grzelcyk-McAvoy, it sure seems inevitable that Reilly and Carlo will be reunited at some point soon. 

A late-season surge from a puck mover in Reilly will make a sizable difference, no doubt. But if the Bruins are going to stabilize a key cog in their defensive structure, the onus will fall on Carlo to sort through the struggles that have hampered his season so far.

“What we remind Brandon is we value him here,” Cassidy said. "That was obviously a mutual thing when he signed his contract. We put a letter on him, we feel he's a good leader on and off the ice. So he has to sort of find his calmness and just play and live with the mistakes he makes and try to continue to play through them. So that's where we're at.

"Obviously, we don't want to see boo-boos that result in our net, but he's not alone there. So hopefully he can find a few more automatic outlets for himself. We're not asking him to be McAvoy or Grizz. But a few more plays where he feels he's playing within himself and still making good plays.” 

Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, HockeyViz and JFreshHockey.