Before an NFL team turns the page on the previous season and moves forward to the next, they put the team and their players under a microscope to see what worked, what didn’t, and what needs to be changed/altered to make progress in 2022.
Obviously, we have no idea what the Patriots’ internal grading looks like, and we don’t anticipate Bill Belichick opening up his grade book to the public anytime soon. So, we’re left to do our homework with some assistance from people who have knowledge of how the Patriots view things.
So we’ll start our dissection (which is a homage to my mentor, Bob McGinn) with an overview of the team and positions, and then we’ll move on to individual player grades/assessments. Finally, we’ll conclude with our imitated but never duplicated offseason depth chart coded for performance and contract status, and with a comprehensive analysis of team needs headed into the ’22 offseason.
Part I: Grading the 2021 Patriots: Thanks to Jones, offense improved but defense failed to carry load
Part II — Team grades for passing offense, rushing offense
Part III — Team grades for passing defense, rushing defense, special teams
Part IV — Team grades for personnel moves, coaching and overall
Part V—Individual offensive grades
Part VI—Individual defensive grades
And with that, let's get started...
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PASSING OFFENSE
The Patriots' passing DVOA from FootballOutsiders.com was 24.8%, good for 9th in the league and was a marked improvement over both 2020 (-10.6, 27th) and '19 (14.6, 15th). Of course, it was a ways off from the last good passing season with Tom Brady, when the Patriots were 4th at 33.9. ... Mac Jones' adjusted yards per attempt (Passing Yards + 20 * Passing TD - 45 * Interceptions) / (Passes Attempted) of 7.0 was 16th in the league (one spot ahead of Josh Allen). While with the Patriots, Brady was in that area only in 2019 (6.8) and 2013 (6.9) since his '08 knee injury. ... Jones' passer rating of 92.5 was 15th (also one spot ahead of Allen). Brady's passer rating of 88.0 in '19 was his lowest since '13 (87.3) and tied for 17th in the league. ... Jones' QBR of 50.9 was 16th in the league. Brady's was 19th at 55.7 in '19. ... Jones' completion percentage of 67.6 ranked 8th in the league, one spot ahead of Brady. Brady's completion percentage of 60.8 in '19 was 27th in the league and lowest since '13 (60.5). ... Jones' TD percentage of 4.2 was 14th in the league. Brady's 3.9 in '19 was tied for 24th and his lowest mark ever as a full-time starter. ... Jones' Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) was 620 for 12th, just behind Jimmy Garoppolo and Allen. Cam Newton was 31st (-166) in '20. Brady was 8th at 1,034 in '18. ... Jones' completion percentage over expected was 1.2, tied with Garoppolo for 8th in the league. ... The Patriots were 14th with 226.9 passing yards per game. ... Patriots were 2nd in the league in explosive pass play percentage (11 percent). In '20 they were 19th.
The Patriots averaged 11.0 yards per catch, tied for 20th in the league. ... Kendrick Bourne led the team (at least 20 receptions) with a 14.5 average per reception. ... Patriots' tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith combined for 11.5 yards per reception. ... Jakobi Meyers led the team with 83 catches for 866 yards. He's gone from 26-359 as a rookie and 59-729 last season. His yards per reception dropped this year from 12.4 to 10.4. Julian Edelman averaged 11.2 in '19 and 11.5 in '18. ... Patriots running backs combined for 93 receptions and 805 yards, with Brandon Bolden leading with 41-405. James White never had more than 87 in '18. In his prime years, White averaged 60.7 catches and 526.8 yards. ... Bourne, Agholor and Meyers all tied with nine catches of at least 20 yards. Edelman led with 13 in '19, Rob Gronkowski with 18 in '18 and Brandin Cooks 18 in '17.
Patriots had 23 drops as a team, with Jonnu Smith (six) and Meyers (four) the only players more than two. Smith's drop rate of 9.7 was more than double his final season in Tennessee (4.4) and most since '18 (13.0). Smith's drop rate was the sixth-highest among NFL TEs with at least 40 targets. ... Bourne led all NE receivers by catching 82.7 percent of the passes thrown his way. Meyers was next at 68.5. Harry caught 57.1 percent.
The Patriots' adjusted sack rate of 5.4 percent was 8th in the league, a marked improvement from 8.0 and 28th a year ago, with Newton an issue. In '19, the Patriots were 5th at 5.3 and were first at 3.8 in '18. ... The Patriots allowed Jones to be pressured on 31.6 percent of his dropbacks, the team's highest allowed since at least '17. ... David Andrews and Shaq Mason had outstanding seasons pass blocking. Ted Karras and Mike Onwenu were very good. Trent Brown and Isaiah Wynn were middling at best.
2021 PASSING OFFENSE GRADE: C
Previous years:
2020: D-
2019: C-
2018: B+
2017: A
If this was the basement or the foundation for this group, then that's a very good sign. Across the board, the Patriots were mostly average in everything through the air except for Jones' completion percentage. With better pass blocking — something in the neighborhood of 25 percent pressure rate — then the Patriots might have been able to sneak into the B range. That should be a focus heading into 2022 — making Jones more comfortable in the pocket, and giving him more time to hit bigger plays. Too often this season, Jones and the receivers were not afforded that time.
I'd say this was a solid first step with a rookie quarterback with all new weapons (to him), including four key ones (Agholor, Bourne, Henry, Smith) who were completely new to the Patriots' offense. Smith had the type of season in every area that has to make the Patriots question whether this is the right place for him, but for the rest, including Agholor, it's fair to say this was just for starters. If the current players on the roster just improve, then there's no reason why this group, with some improved pass blocking and more out of the Smith spot, can't climb into the bottom of the B range in the second season for all.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
RUSHING OFFENSE
Josh McDaniels ran the ball on 45.7 percent of plays, the seventh-most in the league. They were second at 51.3 percent last season, 14th at 40.6 in '19, 7th at 45.1 in '18. ... Patriots ranked sixth in Football Outsiders' rushing DVOA (4.9), which measures efficiency compared to the rest of the league. Previous rankings: 8th, 11th, 8th, 2nd in '17. ... New England was ninth in FO's adjusted line yards, the same as it was in 2019. They were third in '20 and '18. ... Patriots were 11th in yards per attempt (4.4). In '20 they were 9th (4.7), 25th in '19 (3.8) and 18th in '18 (4.3). ... Patriots were second in the league with 24 rushing touchdowns. ... New England was 7th in the league with a 77 percent success rate running on 3rd or 4th down and 2 yards or less to go. Previous years: 4th, 17th, 29th. ... Patriots were 4th in the league with 13 percent explosive run rate (10+ yards). They were 12th in '20.
Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson each averaged 4.6 yards per carry, good for 11th in the league. FootballOutsiders.com rankings:
Harris: 5th DYAR, 10th DVOA, 19th success rate
Stevenson: 19th DYAR, 17th DVOA, 3rd success rate.
For comparison, Sony Michel in 2019: 28th DYAR, 29th DVOA, 22nd success rate.
Harris led the team with 21 explosive rushes of 10-plus yards, including three TDs. Stevenson had 17 but did not score. ... Stevenson had 21 broken tackles, Harris 18.
Patriots allowed 131 bad or stuffed runs for a percentage of 26.6, which is a little high. Only 2.5 (1.9 percent) were the fault of the running back. That's an astounding number and a credit to possibly retiring coach Ivan Fears. In '19, it was 8.4 percent. ... Jonnu Smith led the team with 20 stuffed runs allowed, with Isaiah Wynn (12.5) and Jakobi Meyers (10.5) also in double digits. Smith had the worst stuff percentage on the team (6.19), followed by Yodny Cajuste (5.0), James Ferentz (4.4) and Yasir Durant (3.75). Ted Karras had the lowest rate on the offensive line (1.7).
2021 RUSHING OFFENSE GRADE: B
Previous years:
2020: C
2019: C+
2018: B+
2017: A
The Patriots had a really good running game in 2021, but it could have been better with better blocking from the line, Smith and Meyers. The line saw a lot of changes over the course of the season, with Mike Ownenu starting and then going to the bench, Trent Brown being out half the year and then slumping down the stretch, and Isaiah Wynn being inconsistent. Plus, without an overly aggressive passing offense, defenses started each game by keying on the running game.
There's little doubt the Patriots have two dynamic running backs in Harris and Stevenson. After a slow start to his rookie campaign, Stevenson was very impressive down the stretch and it wouldn't be a surprise if the Patriots don't start next season with a complete share of the RB position. Now, if they could just find a home run hitter for third downs — that was a big missing piece. Don't discount the impact that Bourne and others had running the ball. There's a reason why the 49ers and Patriots were 1-2 in rushing explosive play percentages — they diversify their running game.