Grading the 2021 Patriots, Pt. 1 - Thanks to Jones, offense improved but defense failed to carry load

Before an NFL team turns the page on the previous season and moves forward to the next, they put the team and their players under a microscope to see what worked, what didn’t, and what needs to be changed/altered to make progress in 2022.

Obviously, we have no idea what the Patriots’ internal grading looks like, and we don’t anticipate Bill Belichick opening up his grade book to the public anytime soon. So, we’re left to do our homework with some assistance from people who have knowledge of how the Patriots view things.

So we’ll start our dissection (which is a homage to my mentor, Bob McGinn) with an overview of the team and positions, and then we’ll move on to individual player grades/assessments. Finally, we’ll conclude with our imitated but never duplicated offseason depth chart coded for performance and contract status, and with a comprehensive analysis of team needs headed into the ’22 offseason.

Part I: Grading the 2021 Patriots: Thanks to Jones, offense improved but defense failed to carry load
Part II — Team grades for passing offense, rushing offense.
Part III — Team grades for passing defense, rushing defense, special teams.
Part IV — Team grades for personnel moves, coaching and overall.
Part V—Individual offensive grades.
Part VI—Individual defensive grades.

And with that, let's get started...

_____________________

A very weird Patriots season by their standards. Most of the time under Bill Belichick, they have started slow and slowly built. The 2021 Patriots were 2-4, then 7-0, and then 1-4.

Probably the biggest takeaway from this season was that the defense — who we all expected to be elite and carry this team — actually was worse than the offense at the end of the day and was the team's weakest unit for the second-straight season. Its defensive rating of 2.87 was the second-lowest of the past six seasons ('17's 3.01 was next). The defense did make big gains over '20, but that was almost by default with Matt Judon added, and many veterans returning to at least give Belichick a representative unit. 

The position group that suffered the biggest drop was one that was rife with injuries and a key departure. Mac Jones boosted the offense big time, but the overall grade there shows that he needs to make good improvement this offseason to put this team in a better position.

Only one position group averaged an A grade for the season. 

Let's start off with the '21 grades on a per-game basis. Please note that due to the averages and the fact that I don't give out many 5.0s each week (I'm a tough grader; might need to loosen those up a little), the grading should roughly be viewed as:

A: 5.0-3.2
B: 3.1-2.75
C: 2.74-2.25
D: 2.24-2
F: Below 2

From best to worst, here are the rankings for each individual unit, with average points and with a comparison to their '20 grades.

Running back: 3.75 (3.83 in '20)
Defensive line: 3.11 (3.03 in '20)
Offensive line: 3.00 (3.53 in '20)
Quarterback: 2.78 (1.90 in '20)
Linebackers: 2.78 (2.17 in '20)
Defensive backs: 2.72 (2.33 in '20)
Receivers/tight ends: 2.64 (2.67 in '20)

After being in decline for three straight seasons — mostly due to personnel — the offense improved for the first time since 2017 with almost all of the boost coming from the difference at quarterback from Cam Newton to Mac Jones. ... Despite all of the preseason talk and belief, the offense of the Patriots was better than the defense this season. Conventional wisdom was the defense had to carry the team for them to have a very successful season this year. That proved to be correct as the defense fell off. ... The Patriots' overall grade of 2.96 accurately placed the Patriots outside of contender status. if the defense was a bit better, that could have been different. ... The one good thing you can say is the Patriots had their most balanced team since 2016. They need to improve both sides a little bit to become a contender.

Here's a look at the grade progression from 2016-21.

RANKING THE UNITS, FROM MOST TO LEAST IMPROVED

Quarterback +0.88

There's little question that Jones was a huge improvement over Newton, especially in regards to how he operated the offense, which was a huge issue in '20. Jones is far from perfect but if this was sort of his baseline and he can make incremental progress — while the other areas around him improve — then the Patriots' offense shouldn't be fretted about. Certainly not the QB spot.

Linebackers +0.61

This was almost by default. In '20, the Patriots' leading snap-getters at LB were Ja'Whaun Bentley, Anfernee Jennings and Terez Hall. This season, it was Kyle Van Noy, Bentley, Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins. Say what you want about this year's group — they were way better than the previous year.

Defensive backs +0.39

This one is a bit puzzling to me. My explanation would be that in '20, the Patriots were still playing man coverage and Stephon Gilmore took a big step back, JC Jackson was just OK, Jonathan Jones was good, Adrian Phillips had to play more linebacker due to the issues there, and Kyle Dugger wasn't really ready to play — so the Patriots basically only had one real safety.

This year, the grade came out better because they played more effective zone (during the seven-game win streak) that didn't leave players exposed as much, Phillips and Dugger were better, and a better pass rush made the coverage look better.

Defensive line +0.08

These next two grades have to be very disappointing. The Patriots spent all that money on Judon and Davon Godchaux and, by the end of 18 games, barely improved up front? You can definitely say that about the run defense.

Receivers/tight ends -0.03

The Patriots imported Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne this offseason and in the end, they basically held serve compared to the year prior. Some of this had to do with the blocking of the tight ends and Jakobi Meyers, and also a rise in penalties. I mean, really at the end of the day, Henry was the only constant contributor over the balance of the season. 

Running backs -0.08

There was really nowhere for this unit to go but down slightly. Gotta give Ivan Fears and his guys credit (mostly Brandon Bolden) for losing James White and there not being a huge difference. Both Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson figure to take off.

Offensive line -0.53

Going back over the whole season, you almost forget they didn't have Trent Brown for about half the season (and then he slumped at the end), both tackle spots were issues, and it took Ted Karras coming off the bench to settle left guard down after Mike Onwenu disappointed to start the season.

Ranking the five best and worst overall team performances

Interesting that four of the top games came in successive games, from 8-11. The Patriots literally did peak in the middle of the season.

Finishing the season like that up in Buffalo has to leave a mark. And, man, was that game at home against Jameis Winston and the Saints bad.

RANKING THE STUDS AND DUDS

Here are the 3 up and 3 down rankings for the 2021 season by game:

By using a point system (3-2-1 from 1 up/down to 3rd up/down), we can get a better sense of a player's value over the course of the season (but players who had one or two splash games and nothing else do kind of skew it a bit. So it's not foolproof or anything):

There are always a few surprises.

Kendrick Bourne being that high really jumped out. It seemed he either flashed well, or was just invisible. Interesting that Matthew Judon held onto his top spot despite a brutal finish. When he was good, he was far and away the best player on the team. 

I think Mac Jones is a little bit inflated, but that's the nature of the QB position. 

For all Hunter Henry seemed to do, he really didn't have that huge of an impact on a game-to-game basis.

JC Jackson was a bit underrated by me, I think, but that could be a byproduct of playing more zone.

I would say the bottom two names — Jonnu Smith and Isaiah Wynn — were very accurate and could very well be addressed in the offseason. This is another piece of proof, with the way that I grade, that this was not about Smith not being used properly. He didn't execute what he was given, so how can you give someone like that more to do? The Patriots didn't, so there you go.