Developing starting pitching has been the biggest failing of the Red Sox organization for the last 15 or so years.
While the team has routinely developed great position players -- Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts -- to name just a few, the track record when it comes to starting pitching has been inept.
Not since Clay Buchholz, who made his debut in 2007, has the team produced a starter of any quality. The recent past is littered with a list of names -- Hello, Henry Owens -- who were supposed to be the Next Big Arm, but weren't.
CURRENT MAJOR LEAGUE SPOTS: Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta and Nathan Eovaldi arrived via trades. Rich Hill and Michael Wacha were signed as free agents.
It's a decent group, with the promise of two young pitchers who could contribute in 2022 as starters: Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock.
But if the Red Sox are going to contend annually, as Chaim Bloom hopes, they're going to have to turn around their poor record when it comes to developing quality starting pitchers.
Fortunately for the Red Sox, there's hope on the way, beyond Houck and Whitlock -- the former whom they drafted, the latter whom they stole from the Yankees in the Rule 5 draft.
Here's a look at who's in the pipeline:
RHP BRAYAN BELLO: Bello made huge strides last year, reaching Double A, flashing 100 mph with his fastball velocity and injecting himself into the conversation in a hurry. It speaks volumes that he found himself on Keith Law's Top 100 Prospect List, released earlier this week. Bello's plus fastball and potentially plus changeup are already pitches of note. If he can further develop his slider and command, he could really take off. He could use additional muscle, as right now, he has a slender frame.
PROFILE: If Bello gets a third quality pitch in his arsenal, he could easily develop into a No. 3 starter; if he's left with just two pitches and his command doesn't improve, he could still be a high-leverage option in the bullpen.
ETA: Early 2023
RHP BRYAN MATA: Had Mata been luckier, he could have made it to the big leagues over the second half of last season and gotten his feet wet at the major league level with a few spot starts. Instead, a sore elbow in spring training resulted in April Tommy John surgery, costing him the entire year. Coming, as it did, the year after the canceled 2020 season, that's cost Mata some critical development. He's expected back near mid-season, but will need to ramp up. In a best-case scenario, he finishes his year at Triple-A Worcester.
PROFILE: Unlike Bello, Mata has developed a lot physically and now boasts a classic power pitcher's frame at 6-3, 225 pounds. Like Bello, his ceiling would seem to be a No. 3 starter, but he'll need to improve his command, as well as make up for lost development time, to realize that role anytime soon.
ETA: Early 2023
LHP JAY GROOME: Sometimes, it seems as if the Red Sox have been waiting for Groome forever. Selected in the first round in 2016, he's had a series of setbacks, the biggest of which was being sidelined by Tommy John surgery. That cost him all of 2018, and just when he was getting it together in Class A ball in 2019, the pandemic wiped out the 2020 season. In 2021, he began the year at High A Greenville before earning a late-season promotion to Portland. It's conceivable he could reach Triple A in 2022.
PROFILE: Now 23, some evaluators have adjusted their expectations for Groome. While he was once viewed as having the potential to be a front-of-the-rotation starter, he's now seen more as someone who would plug into the back end of the rotation. There's still time for him to change that projection, but he needs to work on his fastball command and find a secondary pitch that stands out.
ETA: Early 2023
RHP CONNOR SEABOLD: Acquired along with Pivetta in a 2020 trade with the Phillies, it's worth remembering that while Pivetta has developed into a solid No.3-4 starter in the big leagues already, the Sox originally viewed Seabold as the real prize of the package in that deal. He missed time at the start of 2021 with some elbow inflammation that, fortunately for him, did not require surgery. He made his major league debut with a spot start in September.
PROFILE: In terms of raw stuff, Seabold can't compete with some others on this list. Indeed, for now, he lacks a truly well above-average pitch, although his changeup still has that potential. But he has already exhibited a good feel for pitching, and he has a four-pitch repertoire in which all four offerings have the potential to be at least major league average. For now, he has a higher floor than he does a ceiling.
ETA: Mid-2022. If the Red Sox need reinforcements from Triple-A after the season gets underway, Seabold will be one of the arms the Sox look to first.
RHP JOSH WINCKOWSKI: Acquired in the three-team deal that saw the Sox deal off Andrew Benintendi, Winckowski pitched at Portland for most of last season. Despite a big build and a fastball that can reach the mid-90s, his strikeout rates have been below average.
PROFILE: For now, Winckowski looks to be either an occasional starter, or someone who could provide length out of the bullpen. That's not an insignificant role, in an era when teams need bulk work in relief, in support of an opener, or as someone who could provide a bridge between a five-inning starter and some high-leverage options in the bullpen. This will be a big development year for Winckowski, as he nears a potential major league opportunity.
ETA: Late 2022.
RHP THADDEUS WARD: Like Mata, Ward missed most of 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. But because he didn't have the procedure done until mid-June, he could miss most of 2022, too. Like Seabold, Ward lacks blow-away stuff, but has a deep enough repertoire (sinker, cutter, changeup, slider, curveball) that he could give hitters plenty of different looks. When he's healthy, he needs improved fastball command and for one of his secondary pitches to become a standout.
PROFILE: Ward looks to be either a back-end starter or perhaps a useful bullpen piece. Much will be dependent on the refinement of the rest of his repertoire.
ETA: Mid-2023.
RHP WILKELMAN GONZALEZ: Gonzalez has emerged in the last year or so as a pitcher to watch. He probably still has some filling out to do -- he stands six foot and 180 pounds -- but for now, he has the potential to be a middle-of-the-rotation starter. Keep in mind, he won't even turn 20 until next month, so there's a lot of development that's still to come. He needs to show improved stamina on the mound, along with some progress with his secondary offerings.
PROFILE: Could be a No. 3 starter, especially if he gets stronger and his fastball velocity improves. Again, he'll likely start this season at Low A, so that serves as a reminder of how much development remains.
ETA: Late 2024.