One of the popular reactions to the divisional weekend in the NFL is that the Patriots can't compete — especially at the quarterback position — with the new world order in the AFC, mainly the Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes) and Bills (Josh Allen).
Recency bias ... never change.
It's absolutely true that the final game of divisional weekend, the Chiefs' 42-36 OT win over the Bills, was exhilarating and the quarterbacks appeared to be unstoppable.
Of course, it also ignored that the game was devoid of defense (not unusual for the Chiefs this season, and the Bills allowed more than 30 points three times) thanks to two units going against schemes that exposed their warts. The Chiefs had issues in the secondary even before Tyrann Mathieu went out early, and the Bills were waiting to be spread out by a team with multiple weapons — similar to the Patriots — to expose their slow linebackers and zone coverage.
Another thing that was ignored: those types of games happen with regularity and they don't mean all that much in the big picture. Since just 2016, there have been 18 playoff games with at least 65 points scored combined. Of those 18 winners, just six have gone on to the Super Bowl and "three" have won it: the 2019 Chiefs, and 2018 Patriots (twice that postseason vs. Chargers, Chiefs).
Finally, conveniently the pro-offense, pro-great QB argument ignores what happened in the three other games: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Joe Burrow — all declared elite by most — were held in check for most if not all the games. Rodgers lost, Brady fell behind 27-3 before the Rams started coughing the game up and lost, and Burrow scored 19 points and would have lost had Ryan Tannehill not been Ryan Tannehill.
But Rodgers and Brady are superstars, right at the top of elite QBs, right? How come their teams lost? Why couldn't they just wave a magic wand and make their team's deficiencies disappear considering they are the all-mighty elite QB?
But let's just be a bunch of simpletons and make it ALL about the quarterback.
The argument about the QB play makes for good fodder, so it's tossed out there. Those that believe it's only about the QB probably follow the NBA closely — where the superstar does matter and dictates everything — but that's not the way the NFL works, no matter how many times and how loudly they say it.
If you think the Patriots are down the totem pole right now because of the quarterback position, you're delusional and probably don't want to point the finger at GM Bill Belichick. The Patriots are here because there is and has been a talent deficiency on the roster. It was so bad on offense last offseason they had to import a new QB, two WRs and two TEs. The final five weeks exposed that the defense needs two new CBs (if JC Jackson departs), two or three new LBs, a nose tackle and another edge rusher.
Don't make it about the quarterback. Mac Jones had a very good rookie season, but he's far from a finished product. He will get physically stronger, his footwork will get better, and his impressive mind will take another step after an offseason reflecting on his first season. What will really help the Patriots on offense is improved and flat-out more weapons. The Patriots were sixth in points scored and right around the middle of the pack in terms of offensive and passing efficiency (right near Buffalo, BTW) with a rookie QB, four key weapons also new to the scheme, lack of a third-down back and a real slot receiver.
I will admit, and Belichick may be slow to admit, but winning a Super Bowl on the backbone of a defense-first football team may be a thing of the past. What happens in the college game will eventually happen in the pros. Take heed Nick Saban's words from about a year ago:
“It used to be that good defense beats good offense. Good defense doesn’t beat good offense anymore,” Saban told ESPN. “It’s just like last week. Georgia has as good a defense as we do an offense, and we scored 41 points on them [in a 41-24 Alabama win]. That’s not the way it used to be. It used to be if you had a good defense, other people weren’t going to score. You were always going to be in the game.
“I’m telling you. It ain’t that way anymore.”
Pay attention to what Saban said. He didn't say you can't play defense anymore on the college level. He only said that good defense alone isn't going to win you games.
Look at the college game. Is it dominated by great quarterbacks? No. Stetson Bennett, who likely will never be a starting NFL QB, just dominated Alabama to win the national title for Georgia. Mac Jones, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Deshaun Watson, Jake Coker, Cardale Jones, Jameis Winston and AJ McCarron (two titles) have been the recent winning QBs in national championship games. How many of those are unstoppable freaks of nature? Not many.
So why will the NFL be any different?
What should be learned from this year's NFL playoffs is that to be a championship-level team against any challenger, you need a talented overall TEAM, not QB — just like the college game. You need multiple capable weapons that the defense must respect and cause issues in coverage. You need a good scheme, to get you some busts (KC-BUF was bust city), and a QB good enough to find the open receiver or mismatch, and one that knows how to come through in the clutch. Is it helpful to have a mobile QB? Sure. But there's a price to pay for that. A distributor with a quick mind — Jones' processing speed is his superpower and will be an advantage over most QBs in the league — can be just as effective as an elusive QB, and more durable.
On defense, the biggest factors are creating negative plays and turnovers. That's done through tight coverage — from cornerbacks and linebackers/safeties — to QB pressure, holding calls and fumbles created in the front seven usually due to speed. If you can get more than your opponent, you're getting more possessions and more plays. This was a big problem for the Patriots this season. New England had the 22nd defense in terms of time of possession. New England's offense was 7th in points per drive — right behind Buffalo.
Also, special teams are an afterthought in college — it's part of the reason why kickers aren't developed there. If you thought the kickoff rules limited the contributions of special teams, the rise of going for it on fourth down (Belichick is now one of the most conservative in the league), that is already prevalent in the college game, basically renders the college special teams game moot. The goal is only to hold your own. The 49ers' game-changing plays on Saturday against the Packers weren't due to an emphasis by them on special teams (San Fran ranked 26th at FootballOutsiders.com). It was about the Packers being terrible (32nd). Just don't be terrible on special teams.
The Patriots are not where they are — seemingly far away from the Chiefs and Bills — due to the quarterback. That's lazy and wrong. They have much ground to make up because they don't have enough weapons for the opposing defense to respect, and they couldn't cover in the back end or do anything in the front seven to disrupt any decent passing game and get off the field.
Jones will get better. Some of his weapons will improve with a second year with him and in the scheme. Some spots (slot receiver, pass back, second TE, possibly X boundary receiver) need to be upgraded. On defense, the list is a lot longer.
Getting better at those spots on both sides of the ball, especially through draft and development — which has felt like a foreign concept in these parts for many years — is the only way for the Patriots to return to the top of the AFC, no matter who the opposing QB is.
Mac Jones really has little to do with that, no matter what you saw out of Mahomes and Allen.