With a whole season of information and the lame decision by the NFL to expand the playoffs by one team, we had a pretty good wild-card weekend with picks — 6-0 straight up, 5-1 against the spread (Raiders-Bengals) — but this is my favorite weekend of the NFL season. Four games, eight usually pretty good teams and a lot of drama. Let's check out the games, then get into the nickel package starting with what's going on with Josh McDaniels:
TODAY
Bengals at Titans (-4 BetOnline.ag), 4:30 p.m. CBS
This is a very good matchup and the Bengals' offense could force the Titans to open up the pass game a little bit more, you have to like Tennessee and Mike Vrabel in this spot. They are set to get RB Derrick Henry and will be at near full strength for the first time in months. The public seems to be high on Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and the rest of the Bengals, and you can just see Vrabel using that all week to motivate his troops.
The Titans' defensive front has a big mismatch against a subpar offensive line. I see the Titans controlling both lines of scrimmages and making things tough on the Bengals. They've been a nice story, but real playoff football (the Raiders were not it) is something altogether different. The Titans have been here plenty and I expect them to punch the Bengals in the face. Tennessee is a tough-ass football team and I don't think the Bengals can compete there. Burrow and Co. are in for a rude awakening.
BEDARD'S PICK: Titans 27, Bengals 20
49ers at Packers (-5.5), 8:15 p.m. FOX
Both of these games are prime examples of why I always hated the one bye team proposal in expanding the playoffs (more on that in a minute). Both the Packers and Titans got a chance to get healthy, and now the 49ers are coming in very beat up. DE Nick Bosa and LB Fred Warner should play but they likely won't be at full strength, and you have to be at your best against Aaron Rodgers. Throw in Jimmy Garoppolo injuring his throwing shoulder in addition to his thumb injury, and I just see little way the 49ers can compete for 60 minutes at frigid Lambeau.
If all things were even, I would probably pick the 49ers because Kyle Shanahan has the number of one of his proteges, Matt LaFleur, and he'll be able to scheme up a great ground attack against the Packers — they'll get their plays. The 49ers will also do a good job up front against Rodgers, but at the end of the day, the 49ers have been a weak spot all season and will be exposed, and Garoppolo will miss too many plays to pull this off.
BEDARD'S PICK: Packers 33, 49ers 17.
SUNDAY
Rams at Buccaneers (-2.5), 3 p.m. NBC
If there's any person who's cursing the new playoff system, it should be Tom Brady. Under the old system, Tampa would have had a bye and been healthy before hosting the Rams. Instead, the Bucs played a meaningless game last week and likely lost two starting offensive linemen and that's going to really hurt against the Rams' stellar defensive line.
Brady, down several top weapons as well, has his toughest time over the years when the other team can get pressure with four and mix coverages with the other seven. That's the Rams, who have beaten the Bucs each of the last two seasons.
Throw in that the Rams should be able to target a weakened Tampa secondary, and this is just a bad matchup at the worst time for the Bucs. A Tampa victory would mean Matthew Stafford imploded — which is always a possibility. Could this be Brady's final game? I doubt it.
BEDARD'S PICK: Rams 27, Bucs 24.
Bills at Chiefs (-1.5), 6:30 p.m. CBS
The game of the weekend. Like I've said before, if Josh Allen is indeed The Prince That Was Promised To Mike Felger, then he and the Bills win this game easily. They have the better defense, and have more weapons to defend. If the Bills win in the divisional round for the second-straight year, it will again (17-3 over Baltimore) be because of their defense (Allen nearly gave that game away). Against the Chiefs, you only need to shut down Tyreek Hill and keep Travis Kelce in check. Even though we saw some of the old Patrick Mahomes last week, he has not been the same player since the turf toe injury and will make mistakes. The Bills and their safeties are a nightmare matchup for him.
What I can tell you is, Steve Spagnuolo is not going to go out like Bill Belichick — passive and defenseless — against Allen. He is going to go down swinging with all kinds of pressures. Can the Chiefs tackle and fluster Allen? As long as Daniel Sorenson is nowhere to be found, I think they can. It's going to come down to which QB makes the most mistakes. It's a toss-up between these two. Against every team but New England, Allen has been very up and down. I'm going with Mahomes.
Chiefs 33, Bills 30.
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. What's the deal with Josh McDaniels and the Raiders job? The possibility of him leaving is very real but it's far from imminent. From what I understand, McDaniels is still in the research stage about the job but he's intrigued about the possible setup there, especially if Dave Ziegler gets the GM job. Vegas could be one of the few remaining jobs in the NFL where there is a hands-off owner and the coach would have total autonomy on the football side. In many of the jobs now, owners, their offspring and underlings increasingly want more input and just want a coach who listens to their analytics departments and the owner's personnel/strategy input. This could be a great opportunity for McDaniels, if things check out on his end. The lack of a team president, Dan Ventrelle is the interim prez and a Raiders lifer, could be a yellow flag. Who gets the permanent job? How much input would he want on football operations? Jim Harbaugh is also a real factor here.
2. If McDaniels were to leave, I think Bill O'Brien slots in perfectly and that would be great news for Mac Jones. The two already have a relationship — Jones taught O'Brien the Alabama offense last offseason.
3. When it came to NFL playoff expansion, I was against it — unless they really opened it up to 10 teams. I thought one bye, after a 17-game season (let alone 18), was way too much of an advantage when divisions play entirely different schedules. A byproduct would be big-time mismatches on wild-card weekend with 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6.
I liked the system just the way it was. The two byes were at least close to fair. There's often two teams that are the class in each conference. One team shouldn't get a huge advantage because they had a week division on their schedule (like the NFC East or the AFC South this year).
4. I do not think this will be Brady's last game if he loses. He's not going out like that, and I think this is much more of a power play to get his preferred coach in Tampa to succeed Bruce Arians, who is clearly losing it with the head slap episode last week. Could be O'Brien. McDaniels also possible.
5. Love the idea that NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah put forth with his first mock draft of the offseason with the Patriots taking Georgia's mammoth DT Jordan Davis (6-6, 340) in the first round. They need a mountain in the middle of that line. I don't care if he's not always a three-down player. That has enormous value.