Are the Bengals, with QB Joe Burrow sitting out the season finale, trying to throw their Week 18 game against the Browns to make sure they face the Patriots?!
That and more, after the break...
It's Week 18 in a season that has felt twice as long. The Patriots are about to play a Dolphins team that is all but knocked out of the playoffs. The Patriots have clinched a playoff spot and need a lot to happen (namely another Josh Allen choke job) to avoid being on the road in the wild-card round.
Might as well invent some drama to tide us over until the real discussions can start on Sunday night.
First of all, have you watched the AFC this year? Good luck predicting what's going to happen with the playoff seeding, and let's also gloss over the fact the Browns have lost three straight and 4 of 5, have averaged 14.9 points over their last seven games, and Baker Mayfield won't play either.
The Bengals have secured home field, Sunday will be their 8th straight game since the bye week (wild-card will be the 9th), Burrow is a little dinged up, his offensive line is below average on a good day, and the Bengals stand a decent chance of still beating the imploding Browns with backups ... so why not rest your prized QB who lost his rookie season to an ACL tear?
I know it's hard to believe, but not everything is about the Patriots, at least since TB12 packed up and left town.
The Bengals certainly aren't afraid of facing the Patriots, but then again, of the five AFC teams that have clinched — Titans, Chiefs, Bengals, Bills and Patriots — does anyone scare anybody? Does it really matter who you draw? Every team could beat the other, and lose to that same team as well. Might as well go down swinging with your best player healthy.
What's comical about this discussion is that it completely ignores the fact that to entertain this scenario (Bengals losing to face the Patriots in the 4-5 game), the Patriots actually have to win in Miami against the Dolphins.
Oh, so now we're counting automatic wins for this version of the Patriots ...
a) in Miami, where the Dolphins have beaten the Patriots 3 out of 4 times and 6 out of 8, b) against the Dolphins, who have won 3 of 4 in the series - all at Gillette, and c) does anyone remember the last time the Patriots played a seeding game against the Dolphins in 2019? Ryan Fitzpatrick ripped through The Boogeymen to hit 28 of 41 passes for 320 yards and the game-winning touchdown to knock the Patriots out of a bye and squarely into a losing situation against the Titans?
So let's all settle down on worrying about what the Bengals or any other team is doing. The Patriots have plenty on their plate to finish first.
And that's where I would start when it comes to this Dolphins game for the Patriots, before we get into our confident/worried list and game pick.
The Patriots aren't right, no matter how much you enjoyed the 50-10 exhibition win over the laughable Jaguars. Not after losing the top seed with back-to-back losses to the Colts and Bills. The Patriots haven't played really good ball against a decent team in nearly two months (Nov. 14, 45-7 over the 7-9 Browns, who were better than that at the time).
They could use another game like that, especially Mac Jones and the passing offense.
A good performance on Sunday against a team that gives them fits could help the Patriots get right when the lights turn on next weekend. Jones can dance all he wants after TDs if he repeats what he did last weekend against the Dolphins. That would be an accomplishment, and give Jones and the Patriots some real confidence heading into the postseason — no matter who they play.
(For the record, I think the seeding stays the exact same in the AFC.)
CONFIDENT LIST
1. Patriots keeping Tua Tagovailoa in the pocket and struggling to finish the season.
New England has not been great over the last month with their rush discipline and this is another good stress test before they perhaps see Josh Allen again. Tagovailoa has a hard time seeing over the line if he's not throwing on a designed rollout. Patriots must keep him in the pocket.
2. The running game will mash.
Could be a big Rhamondre Stevenson game. He's a similar style to Titans RB D'Onta Foreman and the Patriots line is similar, and they imposed their will against the Dolphins last week. Dolphins also had a hard time against zone and with cutback lanes, which will be perfect for Damien Harris.
3. Dolphins' special teams are awful.
They are ranked 29th in FootballOutsiders.com's ranking and that was definitely true last week against the Titans. Some bad punts gave the Titans great field position and jumpstarted them to a 34-3 blowout (it was 0-0 for almost the entire first quarter).
WORRIED LIST
1. The heat and humidity.
The forecast is not good for the Patriots and it's been a while since they've been in those conditions. Stamina and cramping could be an issue. The wind is going to kick up as well, which could be an issue for Jones.
2. The defense tackling and getting off the field.
Here's our coverage of the first matchup:
Bedard's Breakdown (Offense): Costly miscues kept Patriots from hitting another gear vs. Dolphins
Bedard's Breakdown (Defense): Despite appearances, Patriots' defense was far from good enough vs. Miami - again
Bedard's Breakdown: Grading Mac Jones - What the all-22 says about QB's decision-making vs. Dolphins
Yes, our biggest issue in the opener was the defense.
Against the Patriots' defense with a revamped front seven, those same Tua-led Dolphins:
- Took the opening kickoff and scored a walk-in touchdown after 10 plays and 80 yards;
- Scored 10 points — holding the ball for 17 plays and 130 yards — to wrap around halftime, which effectively limited the Patriots' offense to one drive in 16 minutes of game action;
- Despite facing a 1st and 14 from its own 5-yard line with 3:31 left, had no trouble making five successful plays to burn the Patriots' three timeouts and close out the game at Gillette Stadium;
- On all four of those drives, the Dolphins were forced into just five third downs, and only two were of 5 yards or longer.
The Patriots could not make any plays against the speed of the Dolphins. Has much much changed in 17 weeks? We'll see.
3. Jalen Mills.
Remember the opener? That was the game Mills continually played off 10 yards and allowed the Dolphins to complete a bunch of read-option slants, including a huge one to ice the game.
BETONLINE.AG GAME PICK
Patriots -6.5, o/u 40
I think the Patriots want this game a bit more — wouldn't mind seeing some young legs get a chance to play for some older stars (Matthew Judon, Dont'a Hightower) — so that gives them a bit of an edge, but it's going to be a war.
PATRIOTS 24, DOLPHINS 20