It’s a testament to David Pastrnak’s own individual talent and the reputation he’s cultivated around league circles that the production that he’s put forth so far through 26 games this season has been characterized as underwhelming.
After all, most players would certainly welcome a 21-point stat line through 26 games — good for a 66-point pace over the span of 82 games.
But Pastrnak is not like most players, of course.
And when it comes to gauging Pastrnak’s impact on the ice, most of it starts and stops with the 25-year-old winger’s ability to light the lamp at a steady clip.
While the B’s top-heavy scoring output and 5v5 production woes aren’t exactly a surprise for those who have watched this team over the last few years — a dip in Pastrnak’s ability to find twine sure is.
And with Boston in desperate need of a game-breaker in the O-zone to push ahead in a few of those tight contests — a Pastrnak operating at a 25-goal pace just isn’t going to be enough on this Bruins team, fair or not.
But for as much as Pastrnak’s baseline production has not fallen in line with the usual lofty totals he’s put up, year in and year out, his coach in Bruce Cassidy sure doesn’t plan on hitting the panic button any time soon.
"I think his game overall has been good,” Cassidy said on Monday. “I think it was a bit of a slow start. We addressed that and maybe reasons why earlier, but I think he certainly got over the hump in that area. His legs are under him. For me, I think he's had some tough luck around the net. I think early on, he wasn't shooting and then he started shooting.
"I can't remember him hitting so many posts in such a short stretch of games, to be honest with you. Ringing it off the bar or off the post. So if a couple more of those go in, all of a sudden, you know, maybe you're not talking about his numbers being down. So for me, that's the positive and I think he'd tell you the same thing.”
Much like the rest of Boston’s roster, puck luck sure hasn’t been on Pastrnak’s side at all this season. As Cassidy noted, besides a brief ugly gap when Pastrnak was deferring far more than usual in the O-zone, he’s actually peppering the net at a higher rate than ever before.
Pastrnak’s 4.42 shots on goal per game might be a career-high, but his 7.0% shooting percentage (including a minuscule 3.9% at 5v5 play) sits well below his career average of 13.7%.
While metrics such as shooting percentages can be quite variable and prone to dips, this current slump of 7.0% sure seems like a startling outlier — given that Pastrnak’s previous low for shooting percentage in a season was 10.8%, which came back during his rookie year in 2014-15.
(Even with Pastrnak's offensive production significantly dipping, it's pretty evident that the B's shot volume spikes whenever he's out on a shift.)
All things considered, the chances have been there for Pastrnak — the pucks just haven’t made it all the way into the net.
From Cassidy’s perspective, the only scenario that would have prompted sounding the alarms in regards to Pastrnak’s game was if he was completely disengaged in the O-zone and not uncorking shots early and often.
“If he goes through two or three games, he's not getting any looks, that's when I would — as a coach — I'd be worried. And as a player, that's when he'd be worried,” Cassidy said. “It's like, well, wait a minute, the pucks not finding me, what am I doing wrong? Am I not in the right spots, etc. The puck is finding him. It's just a matter of getting it to go into the net.
“And as a goal scorer, I don't think you can change a lot of what you do. You go through stretches like that. And you do need some volume shooting to get those goals to eventually go in and then all of a sudden it snowballs and it goes the other way where it's post and in instead of post and out.”
Granted, there are a few ways in which Pastrnak can make things a bit easier on himself when it comes to converting on the multiple chances he’s generating. Quality over quantity should be the proper mindset for the B’s winger, considering that Pastrnak currently boasts the 18th lowest quality per 5v5 shot attempt among NHLers.
Considering that his average shot distance this season at 5v5 action has been about 36 feet away from the net, Pastrnak should increase his odds of burying pucks with more regularity if he starts peppering the net from Grade-A ice.
While Pastrnak stands as just one of many B’s forwards that are performing below expectations when it comes to offensive production, Cassidy is diverting most of his efforts toward getting guys like Nick Foligno (0 goals in 18 games), Trent Frederic (0 goals in 18 games), Erik Haula (1 goal in 25 games) in the best position to finally break through.
In Pastrnak’s case, the less intervention from Boston’s coaching staff, the better — at least in Cassidy’s eyes.
Because if Pastrnak continues his current shooting rate — coupled with his obvious finishing ability — it sure seems like a given that his goal totals are primed to spike once more.
"With David, it's always been about you got to keep pushing and keep shooting. Don't become just a one-on-one player out there because you're not scoring and try to score a highlight-reel goal. Just keep playing your game. Don't lose your details away from the puck. And I think he'll be fine. … He's too good of a player to worry about him not scoring going forward.
“Like I said, I think it's too short a sample size. And he's had too many good looks for us to worry about it. We need it obviously and we want that shooting percentage to go up and I think it's only a matter of time.”