Well, Saturday night's loss by the Patriots to the Colts — especially the 20-0 deficit — was like a smack in the face to the Patriots and their fans. After basically doing little wrong during their seven-game winning streak, the 2-4 Patriots were back with a calamity of errors in all three phases.
Obviously, that has all parts of Patriots Nation a bit worried about what's to come down the stretch — against Buffalo, Miami in the season finale, and also the postseason.
But what are the real issues, and just aberrations after watching the film?
Let's take a look before we get into our positional ratings, game charts, video analysis and 3 up/3 down from the Colts game:
ABERRATIONS
The mental errors/execution: The Patriots had more miscues and blown assignments in weeks. That is not who they have proven to be, nor is it who the Patriots are in the final months of past seasons. To me, this speaks to the unusual schedule (Thursday night layoff, game, bye week) and also the lack of a padded practice headed into the Colts game. Not having a padded practice heading into a trenches game — and that's what team sources told me went on last week — was obviously a mistake in hindsight. Each team is limited in the number of padded in-season practices they can have, and not using one last week was an obvious issue. They were dominated on both sides of the line, and just not sharp overall. The number of pre-snap penalties were embarrassing and alarming considering it was the first real tough road environment, and won't be an issue going forward in the final three games (two at home).
Mac Jones' rookie-ness: He and the team were not ready for that environment and it showed. Jones had three plus plays — two were on scrambles — and five minus plays in the first half plus one series, including a delay of game and two unforced interceptions. This was the first time Jones had been in that environment in the pros, and it was a baptism by fire. It was something he needed to go through and he was much, much better in the second half — eight plus throws, and just five minus plays after the interception. That showed me that he adjusted and overcame the situation.
Ineffective run game: Purely a product of the scoreboard, which was mostly caused by...
Special teams blunders: Yes, there have been three blocked punts but Jake Bailey's get-off (1.83 seconds) is not an issue (2.1 NFL max). Those were all blown blocking assignments. Those and Brandon King's mindless penalty will not be tolerated and it will get fixed.
REAL CONCERNS
Run defense vs. physical offensive lines: The Patriots got run over by the two best offensive lines (and centers) they've faced of late, the Titans and Colts. This is a real problem because the Patriots' simply don't have the personnel on the defensive line. Davon Godchaux has proven he can't play effective nose tackle against the better centers and has been demoted to end. Carl Davis is OK there, but limited. Lawrence Guy reverted to his early-season struggles but that won't continue unless he's banged up. I'm not worried about the lack of edge discipline the Patriots showed — they've been solid previously — but I am concerned about how the Patriots still put Kyle Dugger at linebacker against two tight end sets. The Colts seemed to target his side and the Patriots were getting pushed around. Colts TEs Jack Doyle and Mo Ali-Cox are not Marcus Pollard and Dallas Clark — you don't need to cover them with safeties. Until the Patriots get serious about their ILBs against the run, the better teams are going to punish them for light boxes.
Matthew Judon's lull: The standout end had 1.5 QB pressures (only 14 dropbacks) against the Colts, but he was largely invisible for the third straight game. He has totaled 5.5 QB pressures and just a half stuffed run over the last three games. In the previous 11 games, Judon averaged nearly 4 QB pressures and 1 stuffed run in every game. The Colts didn't pass much, but their lack of pressure on Wentz showed up on key passes to TY Hilton (19 yards) and Zach Pascal (23 yards) as they had plenty of time to find open space. That's a big worry with their zone coverage. The Patriots need Judon dominating up front, starting with Sunday vs. Josh Allen.
Receivers not getting open quick enough for Jones: Hunter Henry had two instances (4th and 1, RZ INT) where he did not look back to Jones early in the route when Jones wanted to go to him. This has been an issue at times this year. Jakobi Meyers has also had issues with this at times. If this isn't cleaned up in practice, this will be an issue on the biggest pass plays facing this team until the end of its run. This is something Mac Jones needs to grab hold of. Receivers have to be available quicker for Jones against pressure and in tight situations.
Here are the positional ratings against the Colts:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (2.5 out of 5)
Half-plus bad, half good. His nine plus throws in this game were a season high and a great sign for him going forward. A grow-up game for him that should pay him future benefits. Plus, his receivers can help him out more. Henry should have looked for a pass earlier on the RZ interception. On the second one, Jones was late and he panicked — Meyers was coming open. On the flea flicker (video under receivers), Jones had a chance to hit N'Keal Harry deep but panicked when the play looked lost from the start. On the first and goal situation that led to the 20-10 FG, Jones needed to give Meyers a shot on first down, and Henry on third down. Both plays could have been touchdowns. Have to make those plays.
Running backs (2.5 out of 5)
Not much went on in this department with the score.
Receivers (2 out of 5)
Good to see Harry use his body to secure a deep pass. No, I had no issues with the hits from the Colts. Nelson Agholor got more involved, and Kendrick Bourne needs more touches. His missed block on the safety on 2nd and goal cost the Patriots a walk-in touchdown. Way too many blocking and route mistakes from this group. Needs to be cleaned up. Jonnu Smith continues to struggle in the run game, and his routes need a ton of work in the offseason.
Offensive line (3.5 out of 5)
Outside of Isaiah Wynn, this group was very good as only 5.5 QB pressures out of 16 were attributed to the remaining offensive line. ... Wynn was just a trainwreck in this game, and his matchup wasn't even that tough. The sack allowed to DeForest Buckner was a mental error with a RB chip waiting on the outside. He tackled Rhamondre Stevenson once after first blowing an easy double-team. The rest of the line of was very good. Order of effectiveness: David Andrews, Shaq Mason, Trent Brown, Karras, big drop off, Wynn.
DEFENSE
Defensive line (1 out of 5)
A complete error-fest from this group with 19 minus plays, which is about 4 games worth. Christian Barmore, who was huge on the last drive before halftime that yielded a FG, was the only effective player outside a half-sack from Deatrich Wise. Gaps and edges were blown at an alarming rate. ... Lawrence Guy losing his matchup against Colts RG Mark Glowinski was disappointing. Patriots were always going to lose on the other side vs. Quenton Nelson, so you expected Guy to win on the other side. That was unexpected and a huge factor in the game.
Linebackers (2.5 out of 5)
Everyone had some issues in this group with gaps and edges but Jamie Collins and Kyle Van Noy both had some very good moments. ... I don't think Hightower's changing positions are helping him. He hasn't gotten into a rhythm but his sledgehammer shoulder showed up a few times against the Colts' guards.
Secondary (4 out of 5)
Jalen Mills had some big issues in the run game but the group was solid overall. ... Kyle Dugger, a player who didn't play with crowds as a rookie, struggled a few times, especially on playfakes like the first touchdown. Dugger was supposed to be there to clean up and he really didn't know where the ball was. ... Carson Wentz was terrible in this game and allowed JC Jackson almost to pick off two passes. ... Adrian Phillips was the best of the bunch.
FOUR UP
TE Hunter Henry: Needs to get his head around faster at times but still the team's best weapon in a big spot. Expect teams to take him away in big games. Jones should force the ball to the big body.
C David Andrews: Clean sheet on the interior.
S Adrian Phillips: Kept things locked down in the middle after scary injury in Buffalo.
LB Jamie Collins: Patriots didn't miss much when Ja'Whaun Bentley left with an injury. Very good second half.
FOUR DOWN
Special teams: Cost the team at least 10 points by itself with the blocked punt and Brandon King's penalty. Add in Gunner Olszewski's fumble out of bounds, two poor Jake Bailey punts and a bad kickoff ... just a horrible performance from Belichick's Boys.
LT Isaiah Wynn: He has some games, like this one, that make you wonder how much he prepares mentally. Was just not ready to go in this one.
Defensive line: Can these guys only dominate weak offensive lines? It's trending that way.
TE Jonnu Smith: Still issues with run blocking and route running. Time to get going.