After watching some Colts film the past couple of days, here are the top three factors I'm confident in for the 9-4 Patriots against the Indianapolis Colts (7-6, favored by 2.5) and three factors I'm worried about, along with some video analysis and our game pick
CONFIDENT LIST
1. Passing opportunities down the field against the Colts' safeties.
There is little doubt the Colts have impact players on their defense. DT DeForest Buckner (6-7, 295 pounds) will be a handful in the middle, Darius Leonard is the best middle linebacker in the game, and cornerback Kenny Moore is an opportunistic ballhawk at cornerback. But outside of those players and CB Xavier Rhodes, the Colts are fairly limited in their defensive talent, especially at safety.
That means, the Colts don't have a great pass rush if you take care of Buckner (Patriots will). The Colts also play a lot of zone, and what do we know about zones in our conversations about the Patriots? If you don't get enough pressure, zones are easily picked apart.
As long as LT Isaiah Wynn takes care of rookie DE Kwity Paye (Providence native), Mac Jones should be fairly comfortable in this game. How he goes is how this offense will go. He will have opportunities in the pass game down the middle of the field. The Colts have been without their starters all season. Kari Willis is OK, but Andrew Sendejo is a bit coverage and run game liability. I expect the Patriots to go after the safeties with play-action and seam passes to the tight ends, Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne. I'm also calling a 70-yard shot play to Nelson Agholor on a high-low concept. Whether the Patriots make these players consistently enough will tell the tale of this game.
2. Patriots running on the edges
With Buckner, Grover Stewart and Leonard inside, it's tough to make a living running inside against the Colts, although you can find yards there. So get ready for the Patriots to test the edges with Bourne, Jonnu Smith, Brandon Bolden and the rest of the running backs, especially against the rookie, Paye, who sets a soft edge. It's right there in the stats:
The Colts' defense is among the league's worst defending the run around left end, left tackle and right tackle. The left side, that's where Paye is. Expect the Patriots to batter him (wonder if he's studied up on crack blocks this week?).
3. Carson Wentz after the first read.
Frank Reich never lacks in confidence with his pass game — just look at what he did with Nick Foles in the Super Bowl against the Patriots. He put the game in the hands of Wentz against the Bucs, and lost. Doubt he's learned much from that.
While I think the Colts think they can run on the Patriots, he will ask Wentz to make plays. The key with Wentz is to get him off his first read. When he does that, he panics and speeds himself up. That's when his decision-making becomes poor and he'll put the ball at risk. That will happen. Will the Patriots capitalize?
WORRIED LIST
1. The Frank Reich Factor.
As with most pass-happy offensive coordinator/head coaches, Reich can often have a huge ego when it comes to his pass game. But he's smart as hell and with an extra week to prepare for this game, he'll have a great plan for this game on his opening script for the first couple of series. Some coordinators just know how to deal with certain schemes, and the Reich/Pederson offense knows how to attack the Patriots. I expect him to mix run and pass, but also to attack the linebackers with the backs in the pass game (Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines can both make plays there). Can the Patriots withstand Reich's well-scripted opening quarter? This might be the most crucial part of the game.
2. Jonathan Taylor.
He's simply the best back in the league, and even if you stack the box, he will exploit the weakest run fit. The is a huge test of the Patriots' run defense, which has been very leaky at times. If the Patriots don't do their job on the line and at linebacker, Taylor could take it 80 yards at any point. If the run defense vs. the Titans shows up, the Patriots have little chance in this game.
3. Colts' offensive line.
It's pretty good and probably the best the Patriots have faced outside of Tampa (New England did well). But, aside from LG Quinton Nelson, they are not dominating. Matthew Judon has to win his matchup against LT Eric Fisher. Guy has to hold his own vs. Nelson. Davon Godchaux/Carl Davis against Cs Ryan Kelly/Danny Pinter is a huge matchup. RT Braden Smith is inconsistent, so it would be nice to see Deatrich Wise/Kyle Van Noy/Dont'a Hightower win on that side.
This is a trench game. Whoever wins in the trenches on both sides will win this game. Whichever team can run and protect the QB better will win this game.
GAME PICK
BetOnline.AG LINE (Code: CLNS50): Colts -2.5/46 o/u
I'm playing the percentages here. I simply don't see the Patriots finishing off the season with 12-straight wins — although it could happen — so that means they drop one of these next two games. Do I think they will lose at home to the Bills? No, I don't. So I'm going with this one because Reich with an extra week is dangerous. The Patriots will have tricks up their sleeves, but I think the Colts will come with a few more surprises, and they're a little better tested of late, beating the 49ers on the road, nearly knocking off a healthy Titans team, killing the Bills and almost upsetting the Bucs. But would I be surprised if the Patriots got their rest and beat the Colts pretty good? Nope. Wouldn't surprise me at all. Very even matchup and I like Jones over Wentz. Plus, the Patriots have a big advantage at kicker.
Colts 27, Patriots 24
DAMIEN HARRIS RULED OUT
The Patriots have downgraded OL Yodny Cajuste and RB Damien Harris to out for this game.
Not great, but it's not like the cupboard is bare at running back with Rhamondre Stevenson, Brandon Bolden and I assume JJ Taylor will be active.
Look out for Darius Leonard punching balls out!